Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
-
Democrats to control US Senate after 2016 election. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-03; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
I will finish the Couch to 5K program inside of the next 2.5 weeks (given I'm now in week 7) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-07-03; known on 2015-07-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-07-30.
-
P will be at contra tonight. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-07-03; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-04.
-
I will miss my train. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-07-03; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-02.
-
France will default on its debt ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
-
UK will default on its debt. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
-
Ukraine will default on its debt ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-06.
-
Ryan will finish the Drakon cluster (meaning that all parts are connected and there is an operating system running) by July 12 at midnight PST. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PurpleDango on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-07-13; judged wrong by PurpleDango on 2015-07-25.
-
I will meet up with X this week ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-07-01; known on 2015-07-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-07-06.
-
By January 30th, 2016 War between Satan and God, clearly happening to those on Earth. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
-
I will have reached over a million dollars by year end. ( 65% confidence )
Created by aschberg on 2015-06-30; known on 2015-12-31.
-
Greece and Eurozone will have found a compromise that favors Greece, by friday 3rd July. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aschberg on 2015-06-30; known on 2015-07-03; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-04.
-
The Greek military will see major action, separate from peacekeeping initiatives outside of Europe, by 2030. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-27; known on 2030-01-01.
-
Obormot will not contact a HEMA branch in his area before the end of July. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-27; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by Madplatypus on 2015-08-01.
-
The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
-
Saudi Arabia and Iran will be at war before the end of 2020. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
-
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will die before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
-
A smart personal assistant will be available within 5 years ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Dori on 2015-06-26; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02.
-
Marco Rubio to be the Republican nominee in 2016. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
-
US election will be Bush v. Clinton ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
-
hilary clinton will not be elected ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by marcDouglas on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Among all US high-tech (IT, all computer {soft, hard}ware development) jobs, of the total hours worked in 2035, >=75% will be worked from home. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sh on 2015-06-25; known on 2036-01-01.
-
Among the top 10% highest-earning jobs (incl. self-employment) in the US, >=75% of the total hours worked will be worked from home. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sh on 2015-06-25; known on 2035-06-01.
-
Y will be online when I check ( 85% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-25; known on 2015-06-25; judged right by RoryS on 2015-06-25.
-
I will have a new message when I check Facebook ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-25; known on 2015-06-25; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-25.
-
Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. ( 75% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
The FOURIER trial of a PSCK9 inhibitor will not show a statistically significant improvement in its primary endpoint. ( 90% confidence )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by James Babcock on 2018-06-23.
-
The car will get towed. ( 30% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-06-24; known on 2015-06-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-06-24.
-
Extreme upset of how things are by January 30th, 2016 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-23; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-01.
-
Conditional on neither Hillary or Bernie withdrawing before the Iowa caucus or either candidate running as an independent, Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for President. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-22; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
-
NIST's overall budget will increase from FY 2015 to 2016 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-21; known on 2016-03-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29.
-
Ryan & I will have an anecdote that is equal to or better than the prostitute story by the end of this year ( 3% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-20; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
-
I will see someone I know at, or on the way to Pizza Express tomorrow ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-20; known on 2015-06-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-21.
-
US CO2 emissions per capita increase from 2013 to 2014 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-02.
-
Apple will buy Tesla by 2020 ( 17% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ira on 2015-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
-
By the end of 2015, at least one poll of Bernie Sanders v. a GOP candidate in head-to-head will be done that is respected enough that it will be included by RCP on their Presidential polling list. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-29.
-
Jeb Bush to be next President elect of the US. ( 15% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-19; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Jeb! to be voted President of the United States. Republicans Rule House and Senate as they currently do already! ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-06-19; known on 2017-06-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
-
I will have low levels of dandruff while continuing to take Zinc supplements over the next 3 months ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2015-06-18; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-10-24.
-
Jeb Bush to be the 2016 Republican nominee. ( 49% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
-
DAX above 10000 until mid of July 2015 ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2015-06-16; known on 2015-07-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-07-15.
-
Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) ( 65% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.
-
ISIS will continue to exist through the end of 2015. ( 97% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
-
ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2015 than it does right now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
-
Syria’s civil war will not end before 2016. ( 93% confidence; 51 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02.
-
Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state for the remainder of 2015. ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Madplatypus on 2016-01-03.
-
Assad will remain President of Syria for the remainder of 2015. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
-
No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
-
Ebola will kill fewer people in second half of 2015 than the in first half. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02.
-
Neither Russia nor Qatar will lose their World Cups before 2016. ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.
-
Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro before 2016. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-02.
-
North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt before 2016. ( 89% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
-
US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers before 2016. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
-
Google Scholar will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-15; known on 2025-07-01.
-
I will develop a cold / sore throat or related symptoms within a week after LWCW 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by jasticE on 2015-06-15; known on 2015-06-22; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-06-22.
-
Alastair will get a hangover from Emma May Ball ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-14; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2015-06-15.
-
My math research this summer will result in me publishing a paper. ( 80% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2015-06-14; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-08-01.
-
Library Genesis will operate through 2016-07-01 ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
-
I won't be able to finish the whole plate of brunch Sam is cooking for me ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Xtobel on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-13; judged wrong by Xtobel on 2015-06-13.
-
I will get a first in my degree. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by theboubmeister on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by theboubmeister on 2015-06-18.
-
I will get a 1 in my degree ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-18; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-18.
-
I will get a 2.1 or over in my degree ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-18; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-18.
-
I will weigh 64kg by 2016 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-01-02.
-
I will weigh 63kg by September ( 60% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2015-09-07.
-
Jeremy Corbyn will get on the Labour leadership ballot. ( 15% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-15; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-15.
-
SO will dominate me in grappling, routinely. ( 70% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-01-13; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16.
-
[GoT] Cleganebowl in S05E10. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-15.
-
Direct commercial access to the web through a brain link by 2030 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-12; known on 2030-01-01.
-
figshare will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 60% confidence )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
-
The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
-
arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
-
GitHub will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
-
I will discover a 16th/17th century composer more avant-garde than M. Rossi or Gesualdo ( 25% confidence )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2017-01-01.
-
My research this summer will result in a published paper ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-16.
-
I will be single as of October 2015 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by splorridge on 2015-12-08.
-
Reddit will lose ≥50% of its userbase to Voat or similar by 2018, due to censorship concerns ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-05-31.
-
Rory will attend Sam's birthday party this coming Friday. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roreiy on 2015-06-09; known on 2015-06-13; judged right by roreiy on 2016-03-16.
-
Stephen Harper will be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2015. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by pent on 2017-01-23.
-
PRI win the largest number of seats in the June legislative elections in Mexico. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-08; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-06-29.
-
[GoT] FTW won't happen in season 5. They will save that for next season. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-07; known on 2015-06-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-15.
-
Bernie Sanders to still be in the race by March 8th, 2016 ( 77% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-06; known on 2016-03-08; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-08.
-
Warriors beat the Cavs (update with game one outcome and Kyrie's injury known) ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-06; known on 2015-06-20; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
-
My dad will smile when he sees me after coming back home for the summer ( 96% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-06-10; judged right by RoryS on 2015-06-12.
-
I will get an amusing story from my next Tinder date ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-07-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-08-01.
-
The June 2015 TOP500 supercomputer rankings will include 4 or more computers in the top 10 with GPUs available for processing ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-08-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-07-16.
-
Warriors beat the Cavs ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-06-19; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
-
I will go on a date with the next person I have a crush on. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2017-06-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-03-29.
-
Ludovico Einaudi will still be my favourite composer five years from now. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2020-06-05; judged right by stepan on 2021-04-30.
-
I will learn to cook, and will turn out to be better at it than my parents. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2020-06-05; judged right by stepan on 2021-04-30.
-
It'll take me less than two months to learn high school economics and business studies. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2015-08-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-08-05.
-
Aam Aadmi Party, like the Indian National Congress, will disappear from the electoral map of India. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2030-01-01.
-
[GoT] R + L = J will be revealed/referenced before the end of season 6. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2016-08-02; judged right by HonoreDB on 2016-08-04.
-
I will develop some sort of a personal uniform (colour and/or style) and rarely deviate from it. ( 25% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2025-01-01.
-
Google's Project Jacquard will be wildly successful. We will use clothes/furniture to control both the behaviour of our devices and the data stored on — or accessed via — said devices. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
Charles Kennedy cause of death will seem to have been confirmed as suicide in 2015 (in my judgement if ambiguous or disputed) ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-14.
-
New Tau paper to be published by July 15, 2016 ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-07-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-16.
-
Both the Democrats and the Republicans will each have at least 160 seats in the 115th House of Representatives ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
We will win ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-02; known on 2015-06-02; judged right by RoryS on 2015-06-02.
-
The Patriot Act will lapse at midnight tonight. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-06-01; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-01.
-
If M is any irreducible stationary Markov chain on the set of computable permutations of the natural numbers, then M is transient. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-05-30; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-01.