PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Some 2Pac's album listed under the Discography section of his main Wikipedia article is given on its Wikipedia article as having >= 90% on Metacritic (critic rating in marginal case) ( 80% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.

I finish first read-through of the Topology notes by midnight ending this Friday ( 45% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.

KC by end of May ( 51% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-01.

FC by end of May ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-01.

I go to P this week/c 2015-04-27 Monday ( 70% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.

I go to M this week/c 2015-04-27 Monday ( 62% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-01.

I'll go to the Southgate student thing ( 70% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-01.

Justice Scalia votes to overturn Obergefell v. Hodges, in such a way that same-sex marriages can be performed in every U.S. state. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by orthonormal on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-06-27.

Obergefell v. Hodges overturned by the Supreme Court, in such a way that same-sex marriages can be legally performed in every U.S. state. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by orthonormal on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-27.

Roger Ebert directed Beyond the Valley of the Dolls, conditional on it existing ( 39% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28.

Should James Eagan Holmes be found guilty, he will be sentenced capital punishment. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-08-07.

James Eagan Holmes, known perpetrator of the 2012 theater massacre in Aurora, CO, will be found not guilty by reason of insanity. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-08-07.

She says 'Yes' or similar that LGBT won lots of awards ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28.

Commercially sold driverless/self-driving cars in at least one OECD country by January 1 2032. ( 92% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-28; known on 2032-01-01.

I will finish ahead of Nathan this game ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-28.

We will win this game on BGO (provided Nathan's internet remains on) ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-28.

By 2020, at least 25% of colleges in the US in 2015 will be bankrupt or otherwise defunct. ( 11% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Hillary Clinton to be the next elected President of the United States. ( 56% confidence; 43 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

that is a guy ( 75% confidence )

Created by TheBlackFox on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by TheBlackFox on 2015-04-27.

Ms Cupcake will be selling red velvet cookie sandwiches tomorrow ( 65% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-29.

Ms Cupcake will be selling red velvet cupcakes tomorrow ( 70% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-29.

Sasha will come with me to Ms Cupcake in Brixton tomorrow ( 90% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-29.

I will do 75 sit-ups before I go to sleep tonight ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-01.

I will complete my PhD by 2017-12-31. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-04-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-12-31.

We will win this game of league. ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.

I will beat my lane opponent in this game of league. ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.

I will get the lane I want in the next game of league. ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.

A's song is Billionaire ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-27.

T's song is larger than life ( 47% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.

By 2020, marijuana will be widely used in the US to treat neurodenerative diseases and and multiple new drugs based on cannabis research will have been patented or in least final stages of FDA approval. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

My money will come through by the end of tomorrow ( 70% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-27.

I will make sure to read through some Less Wrong articles today! ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.

I will do 50 sit-ups before I go to sleep ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-27.

By 2045, ZPP contained in P^(A,B) proven, where A is a ring isomorphism oracle, and B is an MSCP oracle. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2045-01-01.

John Kasich will be the next President of the United States. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

Hillary Clinton will be the next president elect. ( 62% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

I will get the number of the next person I approach ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-22.

Upon telling the next group of friends I meet in person, they will find it appropriate, or not incongruent with my general persona, why I've been labelled a 'guilty crush'. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-29.

I will do extensive revision for at least two of my modules by the time I go to sleep tonight ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-27.

In the 2016 election, a majority of Hispanic voters (as determined by exit polls) will vote for the Republican candidate. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-12.

Fiona Apple – Paper Bag on Sunfly karaoke website catalogue ( 35% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26.

Roman will be on league of legends when I log in. ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26.

That Friend Request is from Toaff ( 55% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26.

The temperature for today, when I check BBC weather, will be around 17-18c. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26.

I will clean up my room tomorrow. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.

Rory will attain 300 achievement points on BGO before the end of the month. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-30.

I will not burn my Pizza tonight. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26.

Conditional on none of Cruz, Walker or Paul becoming the Republican nominee, Psimoe will still end up saying they will vote for the nominee. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-07-25.

By May 1, 2017, will be publicly known that the US government had head transplant technology. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-06.

I will never have kids ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mishell103 on 2015-04-25; known on 2025-04-25.

Before January 1 2045, no normal material substance (that is composed of atoms made from neutrons and protons with electrons) will be discovered that blocks more neutrinos than a factor of 10 over what a pure density argument would suggest. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25; known on 2045-01-01.

I will do at least 40 pushups today ( 85% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26.

Lubos will not respond to Scott Aaronson's recent article or blog post before May 2nd. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-16.

The /r/theButton will expire in a week ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by timujin on 2015-05-02.

The /r/theButton will expire in 2 weeks ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-05-09; judged wrong by VoidChronos on 2015-05-09.

DN will drink tonight ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-25; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-04-25.

I will get hired as a full employee (non-contractor) by a software company within a week from now. ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-05-02.

By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ( 93% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01.

'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.

H.A. will not schedule the test today. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25.

Real Madrid will win the 2015 Champions League ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-13.

Barcelona will win the 2015 Champions League ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2015-06-06.

Bayern Munich will win the 2015 Champions League ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-05-13.

Juventus will win the 2015 Champions League ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-06-06.

Real Madrid will advance to the finals of the 2015 Champions League ( 90% confidence )

Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-05-13; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-05-13.

Bayern Munich will advance to the finals of the 2015 Champions League ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-05-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-05-13.

There will not be a thunderstorm when I go running. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by btrettel on 2015-04-24.

I will live longer than JoshuaZ ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2100-01-01.

[Long term] By 2200, the continent of Africa will be thriving, with a competitive economy and cities that rival those of other continents. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2200-01-01.

I will have at least three more papers published by June of 2016 ( 55% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-23; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-06-02.

Before 2019, a Republican or Democratic presidential candidate, a member of congress, or a then current governor, will talk about the rise of AI as it relates to job-loss and/or existential risk. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-23; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.

Eliezer Yudkowsky will start writing at least one new fanfic widely available (such as on fanfic.net) before July 15, 2016. (By start I mean at least chapter available). ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-23; known on 2016-07-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-16.

DN will relapse and continue to smoke tobacco within a week ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-04-23.

I will complete summer physics ii and chemistry courses with nothing lower than an A- ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-01.

I will complete physics and chemistry this summer before fall semester. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-01.

I will end up assigning a 50% or greater probability to a pro-life position by the end of the year ( 50% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.

Total World population will begin stagnating around the late 2040s after relatively weak growth throughout the next 20 years, with most of that growth coming out of Africa and South-East Asia ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by OferBaratz on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by timujin on 2015-04-27.

Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2041-01-01.

I will end up at least starting an academic postgraduate degree (excludes things like a PGCE, or medical conversion course) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2021-09-22.

The frequency of my urination will be back to normal in a month's time ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-05-16; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-20.

I will end up going out tonight ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-04-22; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-22.

I will be diagnosed with Narcolepsy with cataplexy within 1 year. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-22; known on 2016-04-23; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-24.

By May 8, 2015, my chess rating on the iPhone app will increase to 850. Don't hate on my fantastic rating ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-05-09.

At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2030-01-01.

Between now and April 22nd, 2016 There will be large-scale riots in major US cities, gun confiscation in rural areas, and a financial crisis, possibly not all at once or in that precise order. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-21.

Nathan will like Peep Show ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-21; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-08.

One of the next 5 years, the total population will be lower at the end of the year than the start of the year. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-19.

By April 21, 2020, World War III will have broken out. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2020-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-21.

RE will still be in the office at 6:30 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20.

TrikeApps will merge my PredictionBook API pull request within a week. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-28.

They make a recommendation to the university secretary that the case is heard be the vice chancellor ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-21.

I will receive a written warning at the disciplinary meeting ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-22.

I get a fine of £250 at the disciplinary meeting ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-21.

I get a fine of £200 or greater at the disciplinary meeting ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-21.

I get a fine of £100 or greater at the disciplinary meeting ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-22; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-21.

I don't get a fine tomorrow at the disciplinary meeting ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-21.

Today, I will return from the gym before RK returns from his thing. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20.

IV will successfully DTHFM before 11:59pm CST today (20 Apr 2015). ( 35% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-21.

By 2045, electric powered passenger jets will exist. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-20; known on 2045-01-01.

The order of the Wu-Tang given in that Mirror article is the same as on their Wikipedia article ( 70% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-20.

Statistics

Recent Predictions