PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Recent Predictions

Distracted driving fatalities in the US increase from 2012 to 2013 ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-10.
I will use all the beansprouts I bought before their use-by date ( 10% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-10.
Ryan and I will write a paper in the next year for the Foundational Research Institute ( 50% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
My curry will taste good ( 80% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
Juventus will win this game ( 60% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
I will arrive at the exam on time tomorrow ( 90% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-06.
I will feel confident after the exam tomorrow ( 70% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-06.
Hillary chooses Julian Castro as her running mate ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2015-05-05; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
I win money in total after all my May 7th bets close ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
The contract gets signed tomorrow ( 60% confidence )

Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-06; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-06.
SlateStarCodex blog response to https://srconstantin.wordpress.com/2015/05/04/values-affirmation-is-powerful/ on date in May 2015 according to date I see on the post if/when it exists ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-01.
Bicyclist fatalities in the US increase from 2012 to 2013 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-10.
My cat will have food in his bowl when I go to check. ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
I will stick to Firefox as my default browser over Chrome. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-14.
I will move onto the next section of Python, in this online course, by the end of today. ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
In the next two minutes, a person will die. ( 100% confidence )

Created by joustthetwoofus on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-04.
Hillary chooses Sanders as running mate. ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-05-04; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
On my 40th birthday, I will have had 1 child (excluding offspring from selling eggs). ( 25% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
On my 40th birthday, I will have had 0 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs). ( 15% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
On my 40th birthday, I will have had 2 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs). ( 25% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
On my 40th birthday, I will have had 3 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs). ( 25% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-05-31.
On my 40th birthday, I will have had 4 or more children (excluding offspring from selling eggs). ( 10% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
On my 40th birthday, Sam will still be alive and I will still be married to him. ( 90% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
On my 40th birthday, I will be living in the greater Boston area. ( 45% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
On my 40th birthday, I will be living in the US. ( 88% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
On my 40th birthday I will be employed and working in a data science-y or programmerish occupation. ( 65% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
On my 40th birthday I will be a vegetarian or pescetarian. ( 70% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
Sam will complete his PhD. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2025-05-04.
Clippers beat the Rockets ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-18; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-18.
Bulls beat the Cavs ( 55% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-18; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-18.
Of my 140 students, at least 5 students will score above 90% on their Calc I final. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13.
I will do all the revision tasks I have set for myself in the next working day ( 70% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
>50% of all electrical power worldwide will be a result of nuclear energy by 2035 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-04; known on 2035-01-01.
Tim Shieff clears the heats of Ninja Warrior UK series 1 (i.e. makes semi-finals direct, by highest-scoring loser, etc.), conditional on him competing ( 82% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.
Tim Shieff completes his heat course in Ninja Warrior UK series 1 conditional on him competing ( 84% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.
I will know that Tim Shieff competed in the first series of Ninja Warrior UK by the time I finish watching it ( 38% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.
Warriors beat the Grizzlies ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-16.
Hawks beat the Wizards ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-16.
Conditional on Bernie Sanders not winning the Presidential election Millasdiosturd will not be moving to Canada. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.
Wie will only play Space Alert tonight. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Chri on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-04; judged right by Chri on 2015-05-04.
I will geht at least 30xp playing Space Alert tonight. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Chri on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-04; judged right by Chri on 2015-05-04.
That female vocalist on Ab Soul – Double Standards is Anna Wise ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-14.
He replies something like, 'just the end?' or 'whole course tbh' on Twitter by midnight ending 2015-05-06 ( 38% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-07.
Area of a regular n-gon is ns^2/(4tan(pi/n)) ( 46% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03.
At least 45% of electric power worldwide will be due to solar power by 2035. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-03; known on 2035-01-01.
I will have a super awesome computer before the release of Black Desert (in Europe). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-06-01.
My thread on the League Forums has likely been downvoted. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02.
The temperature for today will be 14-15c when I check BBC weather. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02.
I will read some more Less Wrong articles by the end of today. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
I will have completed more than 40% of the Python course by the end of today. ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
I will redownload Tera today, hopefully it will have no problems. ( 75% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
I will complete everything on my revision list before I leave the library ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-03.
The “EM drive” within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond “still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data” ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2023-05-02.
Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
I will go to the library today ( 90% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-02.
Martial law declared in at least a third of the US by by end of 2016. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
Drake 5'7" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus ( 50% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.
Drake 5'8" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus ( 60% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.
Drake 5'9" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus ( 70% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.
human head transplant will be successful in 2017/2018? ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Avadak on 2015-05-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
He hears from her by midnight tonight ( 68% confidence )

Created by EagleEye on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-02.
Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.
Within 14 years new carbon structures will enable the ability of producing in lab environments pressures of at least 3.6 * 10^13 Pa and many pure carbon substances will have near zero cost due. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2029-05-01.
There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 100,000 acres in 2016. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 1,000,000 acres in 2016. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
I will end up disputing a claim Edmund makes before I go home ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-02.
Moises will make a Facebook status with the word 'haha' or some laughter variant before the end of the day ( 70% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-02.
Nick Clegg will still be leader of the Lib Dems a week following the UK GE ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-08.
I will not run into any of the LSE people I met at Molly's today ( 80% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-02.
Scientific consensus that EM drive works in 5 years. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-05-01.
I will pass my second-year review. ( 89% confidence )

Created by spicedpiano on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-03-01; judged right by spicedpiano on 2016-04-20.
The duration of copyright in America will be extended before 2024 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aoeu on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.
Floyd Mayweather will defeat Manny Pacquiao. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by btrettel on 2015-05-03.
The Bernie Sanders Campaign Subreddit, http://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/, will have more than 100,000 subscribers by the end of 2015. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Faceh on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Faceh on 2015-09-09.
[Federal] Minimum wage is raised >$2 under the Obama administration ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-23.
Bernie Sanders to be the next elected President of the United States ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
THIS ANIME I LOVE WILL HAVE ITS LATEST EPISODE RELEASED WHEN I GO TO CHECK. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-30.
J. will have Eve and me over for dinner before December. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-01.
I will publish a paper within 3 years concerning generalizing the classical Jordan-Schur theorem. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-30; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-04-30.
Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2006-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 76% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2005-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 70% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2004-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2003-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2002-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2001-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2000-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
I will get employed throughout May. ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-05.
No student will get all the bonus questions on the exam. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-14; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13.
Every bonus question on the exam will have at least one student get it right. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13.
Final grades for my students will be in by May 14 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-14; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-03.
Conditional on Rand Paul not winning the Republican nomination for President, the eventual Democratic nominee will win the popular vote by at least 2%.. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-12.
I won't get the math tutor position. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-04-29.
That verse on No Diggity was done by a female MC ( 40% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
Duration of Mortal Man is 14:10 in the music player ( 34% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
Duration of Mortal Man is 14:06 in the music player ( 17% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
Ginny Weasley and the Sealed Intelligence finished by end of May San Francisco time ( 46% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-17.
I will endorse the proposition, 'P(Ginny Weasley and the Sealed Intelligence is a trollfic or fucking with ratficers) >= 50%' at the time it finishes or when it has been on indefinite hiatus for 28 days, whichever is the earlier ( 8% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-17.
I do my gym and 'track stuff' 2015-04-29 Wednesday ( 85% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
He says something along the lines of 'It only takes one to rek me' by 02:00 ( 22% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
One or more of Abbey Road, White Album, Sgt Pepper has a Metacritic critic score ( 61% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.