PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Recent Predictions

More than 400 Palestinians in 2021 will be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ihavenoahidea on 2021-09-15; known on 2022-02-15; judged right by ihavenoahidea on 2022-01-01.
VŨ THỊ NGỌC ANH / VDUH^2100081073 HCC/ ko xơ gan AFP > 3000 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-15; known on 2021-09-29; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
TẠ THỊ THỦY / VDUH^2100080860 Hình ảnh u gan phải tính chất không điển hình (Đề nghị phối hợp thêm xét nghiệm). Khối vùng hạ vị ranh giới rõ – TD u mạc treo. U xơ thành sau tử cung. TẠ THỊ THỦY / VDUH^2100080860 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-15; known on 2021-09-29; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26.
NGUYỄN VĂN LAM / VDUH^2100080869 nang mạc treo ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-15; known on 2021-09-29; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
VŨ HÀ MY / VDUH^2100080889 Hình ảnh khối lớn tiểu khung giàu mạch theo dõi u buồng trứng. Ít dịch tự do ổ bụng. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-15; known on 2021-09-29; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
The U.S. Dollar will be less than 50% of global reserve currencies by 2040. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-14; known on 2040-01-01.
there will not be a UK covid lockdown within the next 5 months ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gurgus on 2021-09-13; known on 2022-02-13; judged right by stepan on 2022-03-13.
I'll be in the process of buying a flat by the end of June 2022. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-13; known on 2022-07-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-04-18.
Community – Scott Alexander mentions the self-referential Metaculus question asking if he mentions that question. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-09-12; known on 2021-10-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-01-04.
Personal, Productivity – I clear my task list for the day by deadline. ( 78% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-09-12; known on 2021-09-13; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-09-13.
Olaf Scholz will be Chancellor of Germany on 2022-01-01. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by atzeje on 2021-09-11; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by atzeje on 2022-01-04.
COVID has become the new War on Terror. It has been used to justify increased authoritarian encroachment, and it is still ongoing. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by deangc on 2021-09-10; known on 2025-09-10.
At least one of the two ESSLLI 2022 proposals I have participated in will be accepted ( 90% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-10; known on 2021-09-20; judged right by Tot on 2021-09-20.
We will have three sessions of the ILFC Seminar by the end of 2021. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-01-02.
HAN VAN DUC 41T / 2100079494 Hình ảnh u lớn thận trái chảy máu theo dõi RCC (T2N0Mx). ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
PHẠM VĂN TUYÊN / VDUH^2100079540 Hình ảnh u trong túi thừa bàng quang /Viêm bàng quang mạn tính. Tiền liệt tuyến sau mổ hiện không thấy bất thường tín hiệu. Chảy máu ống phóng tinh trái. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
TRỊNH VĂN TUYÊN / VDUH^2100079710 Hình ảnh u trung thất sau bên phải ngang mức T2-T3 như mô tả nghĩ tới schwannoma. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
TRỊNH MAI TẠO / VDUH^2100079782 high grade glioma ( 60% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
BẾ ANH KHÔI / VDUH^2100079603 Hình ảnh u não thất bên bên trái lan – não thất ba gây giãn lớn não thất trên lều, nghĩ tới central neurocytoma. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
VŨ THỊ MÙI / VDUH^2100079601 ( 30% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-15; judged right by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
NGUYỄN KIM BẢO / VDUH^2100079612 Hình ảnh tổn thương xẹp thân đốt sống L2 lan vào cuống sống và cung sau tạo khối xâm lấn xung quanh như mô tả, chưa loại trừ u mô bào X, đề nghị phối hợp sinh thiết. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26.
LƯỜNG THỊ SƯƠNG / VDUH^2100079613 Hỉnh ảnh tổn thương chóp tủy như mô tả nghĩ đến nghĩ đến tổn thương viêm, đề nghị theo dõi và đánh giá lại sau đợt điều trị. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
NGUYỄN NGỌC TƯỜNG VY 11 Hình ảnh u vùng trên yên, theo dõi u sọ hầu, gây giãn não thất. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-27.
I will be divorced by the end of 2021. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-02-14.
Starship reaches space by December 31 this year ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by August 2022 ( 70% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-08-16; judged right by enochthechronocom on 2022-10-05.
New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by February 2022 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-02-15.
New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by December 2021 ( 20% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-12-16; judged wrong by enochthechronocom on 2022-01-28.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/ will be resolved as ambiguous or cancelled before resolution ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sortega on 2021-09-07; known on 2036-01-01.
Lucas and I will have written a book on negation in event semantics by the end of 2025 ( 65% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-07; known on 2025-12-31.
The number of daily cases in NSW will peak during September at between 500 and 2,000 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sjy on 2021-09-07; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by sjy on 2021-10-31.
On my 45th birthday, I still won't have any child. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2036-01-05.
Marine le Pen will win the French presidential election in 2022. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by edrevo on 2022-04-25.
Emmanuel Macron will win the French presidential elections in 2022. ( 70% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-04-25.
I will travel to Japan in 2022. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tot on 2023-01-02.
We won’t have a hurricane that’s worse than Wednesday’s ( 95% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-09-05; known on 2021-09-20.
We move to Level 2 (or 2.5) next Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-05; known on 2021-09-08; judged right by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08.
I will exist in a purely virtual form by 2070 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-03; known on 2070-01-01.
The Great Filter is virtual reality. (Specifically: by 2100, humanity will see no reason to leave earth as we will be able to explore the galaxy within our simulated worlds.) ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-03; known on 2100-01-01.
Ivermectin will be shown to be ineffective as a form of prophylaxis for COVID-19 before 2024. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-03; known on 2025-01-01.
Alex Azzi Prediction: He will earn 100k / mo $ PROFIT on the jewelry brand by October 2022 ( 70% confidence )

Created by maneesh on 2021-09-03; known on 2022-10-01.
My employer's planned January return to the office is pushed back again. ( 78% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-09-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-01-06.
Jacinda Ardern will win a new term. ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-01; known on 2024-01-16.
New Zealand will repeal the New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament, and Arms Control Act by 2025 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-01; known on 2025-01-01.
In two weeks, Victoria sees a continual reduction in daily COVID case numbers ( 40% confidence )

Created by sjy on 2021-08-31; known on 2021-09-14; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-10-31.
The storm will be “bad” in NY (3 in. rain) History ( 20% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30; known on 2021-09-03; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-09-04.
I will find my niche within EA ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known on 2022-01-03; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
I will reflect back on today as a disappointment ( 70% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known on 2021-08-30; judged wrong by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30.
My wife will feel better. Because of past track record, circumstances of her condition ( 80% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known on 2021-09-02; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-09-03.
I will have a new job by the end of the year, or will have change the project I am working on significantly ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jeedo on 2021-08-29; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Jeedo on 2022-01-02.
Chesa Boudin will be recalled ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2022-06-08; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-12.
Gavin Newsom will be recalled ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2021-10-22; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-23.
Copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse will be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.
Republicans will take both houses of Congress in 2022. Without federal legislation protecting voting rights. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-25; known on 2023-11-16.
ULA's Vulcan rocket to launch by July 1, 2022 ( 72% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-24; known on 2022-07-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-07-02.
We kill Magtheridon today ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-08-25.
Nguyen Luong Nhat Anh 15 glioma doi thi ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
Phan anh trường ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
I will have at least 4 headaches this week. ( 70% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-23; known on 2021-08-30; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30.
After recovering, my back will go out again within three weeks ( 70% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-23; known on 2021-10-21.
Personal – Successfully make it home without getting stranded by 03:00AM 2021-08-25 after being in London during 2021-08-24. ( 93% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-22; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-25.
The New York Giants will lose. ( 70% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-22; known on 2021-08-29; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30.
Biden’s approval will fall by 1%. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-21; known on 2021-09-20; judged right by God on 2022-04-27.
By end of 2025, bound better than than Omega(N) >(302/113)omega(N) + C known of for all odd perfect numbers N. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-21; known on 2026-01-01.
Reminiscence with Hugh Jackson (released on the 20th of August) will not have an audience score in the 60 percentile (60%-69%) here. ( 80% confidence )

Created by cgopher on 2021-08-21; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by cgopher on 2021-08-25.
Hpe inguinal node biopsy. Rn 1044418. Reactive node? ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-09-24; judged right by Akram1 on 2021-09-30.
Long segment colonic marked wall thickening. Ascites. Lymphadenopathies. Long HIV infection. Hpe: colonic lymphoma. Rn 1069762. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-11-18.
Cystic intracranial mass. Hpe low grade astrocytoma? Brain abscess unlikely. Rn 1070182. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by Akram1 on 2021-08-27.
Hpe. Lymphoma? Massive hepatosplenomegaly with lymphadenopathies. Rn 1018220 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-08-25.
Mediastinal mass with multiple hyperdense cortical brain lesions. Hpe of mediastinal mass. Lymphoma? TB? ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by Akram1 on 2021-09-30.
Hpe large retroperitoneal cystic mass. RN 1018781. Mucinous cystadenocarcinoma. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-10-15.
Đặng Thị Nguyệt 44 U nang thân tụy thông với ống tụy IPMN ( 60% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-17; known on 2021-08-31; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
Đặng quốc đại 81 U đồi thị Gbm or glioma ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-16; known on 2021-08-23; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
Afghanistan – Kabul falls to the Taliban before start of 2021-08-17. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2021-08-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.
Afghanistan – Kabul falls to the Taliban before start of 2021-08-22. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2021-08-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.
World – Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050? ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2050-01-01.
Trần xuân nam 17 Rò dnt xoang sàng trước ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-09-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
Phạm thị xuân thu 46 tvdd di trú ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-09-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
Personal, Productivity – I finish due flashcards for the day by deadline. ( 91% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-08-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-15.
Nguyễn đăng cảnh 80 Chondrosarcoma ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-09-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
Afghanistan – Taliban capture Afghan Palace by 2026-09-11 ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-12; known on 2026-09-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.
[I will get married in] 2023 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02.
[I will get married in] 2022 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02; judged right by Leo on 2022-02-07.
[I will get married in] 2021 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-02-07.
Trần Đình Thoàn 30 Ependymoma or oligodendroglioma ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-12; known on 2021-09-02; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
nguyễn văn sơn 48 76 059 astrocytoma tủy ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-12; known on 2021-08-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
trần thị thảo 41 Lao hay di căn đơn ổ lao 60% di căn 10% khác? ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-12; known on 2021-08-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
Personal, Productivity – I clear Anki log by deadline. ( 74% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-12; known on 2021-08-13; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-13.
Personal, Productivity – I clear Anki backlog by deadline. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-10; known on 2021-08-11; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-12.
The AMC stock will go through a short squeeze, where the stock will reach at least US$ 100/ea, but it could potentially reach more than US$ 500/ea. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by alfredbaudisch on 2021-08-09; known on 2022-01-04; judged wrong by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04.
Ng Thị Tần 52 U tá tràng xâm lấn túi mật hay u túi mật xâm lấn tá tràng? Khí trong đường mật có phải do k tá tràng xâm lấn thông với đường mật không? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-09; known on 2021-08-23; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24.
Trần thị huê 39 Adenoma ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-09; known on 2021-08-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
Malaysia will get the first gold medal in Olympic Tokyo 2021 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-07; known on 2021-08-08; judged wrong by Akram1 on 2021-08-19.
Ngô Đăng Khoa 66 u túi mật xâm lấn gan ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-06; known on 2021-08-27; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
Nguyễn Ngọc Cường 41 Dot sign Rathke cleft cyst 80% Macroadenoma 10% ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-06; known on 2021-08-27; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24.
Personal – I get around to cleaning the oven by deadline. ( 95% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-06; known on 2021-08-07; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-07.
[Personal] Student paper on total difference labeling/total difference chromatic numbers to be published by September 25, 2022 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-05; known on 2022-09-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-26.
Personal – I finish Coursera intro by deadline. ( 95% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-04; known on 2021-08-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-04.
Phạm Duy Luận 56 Neuroenteric Cyst https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214751920304138 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-03; known on 2021-08-24; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
Cao Xuân Hòa 34 U não ngấm thuốc viền, trung tâm dịch, tăng sinh mạch mạnh. GBM ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-03; known on 2021-08-24; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.