PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2041. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2042-01-01.

Worldwide deaths in 2022 to exceed 90 million people. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2023-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-15.

At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2036. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2037-01-01.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.

First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.

Within 5 years of initial release of mRNA vaccines, they will be recognized to cause serious side effects lasting >6 months in at least 1 in 5000 cases. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2021-12-22; known on 2026-01-01.

Out of the 4 or 5 people who cheated in the exam, no-one will confess ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-22; known on 2021-12-27; judged right by sty.silver on 2021-12-28.

No US city with a population of over a million people will require covid vaccines for indoor dining on December 22, 2023. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-22; known on 2023-12-23.

DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Agustina ( 60% confidence )

Created by pancakemouse on 2021-12-18; known on 2021-12-19; judged right by pancakemouse on 2022-02-05.

I will have my first paper accepted for publication by the end of 2024. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jakebeardsley on 2021-12-17; known on 2024-01-01.

I meet my reading goals for the next two days, as recorded in my notebook. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jakebeardsley on 2021-12-17; known on 2021-12-19; judged wrong by jakebeardsley on 2022-01-01.

My paper will not receive comments by the end of 2021. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jakebeardsley on 2021-12-17; known on 2022-01-01.

Jens and I will call tomorrow ( 80% confidence )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-11; known on 2021-12-13; judged right by Andref2015 on 2021-12-14.

Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 ( 18% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-09; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-24.

DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Macarena/Viviana ( 20% confidence )

Created by pancakemouse on 2021-12-08; known on 2021-12-09; judged right by pancakemouse on 2021-12-12.

A bill to legalise Marijuana is passed in France before the end of June ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-08; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-07-05.

I will visit Colombia in July ( 80% confidence )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-07-16.

Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-02-01.

employer will approve my request to stay remote indefinitely ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01.

My paper will not get a flat rejection ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2022-03-15.

Conditional on vaccine mandates being enacted, my sister will get vaccinated by end of 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-12-31.

germany announces lockdown for everyone before the 15 of January 2022 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-01-18.

I visit California in December. ( 85% confidence )

Created by giljuand on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-01-16; judged wrong by giljuand on 2022-01-16.

French government announces lockdown for unvaccinated before end of January (for non-essential shops) ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-04; known on 2022-01-31; judged wrong by Andref2015 on 2022-03-31.

The next German president (Bundespräsident) is female (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_German_presidential_election) ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by M on 2021-11-30; known on 2022-02-17; judged wrong by M on 2022-02-17.

It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2022 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by M on 2021-11-30; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2023-01-01.

ĐỖ DUY HOÀ / VDUH^2100101752 u máu gan trái ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-11-23; known on 2021-12-14; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.

NGUYỄN HÀ CHI / VDUH^2100101709 u sau PM: nang ruột đôi ( 30% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-11-23; known on 2021-12-14; judged right by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.

arriverà a 25.000 followers il 17 maggio ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Luca on 2021-11-23; known on 2022-05-17.

In a year, I will not regret getting into defi ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by claerity on 2021-11-23; known on 2022-11-23; judged unknown by claerity on 2022-11-23.

I predict that I will not get an interview with HSS within 40 days ( 70% confidence )

Created by waldo2525 on 2021-11-22; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by waldo2525 on 2022-01-19.

TRIỆU TIẾN THẮNG / VDUH^2100098785 ổ tụ máu hố sau, theo dõi do carvenoma. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-11-18; known on 2021-12-09; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.

HÀ THỊ VÂN / VDUH^2100098224 T2 mismatch sign => diffuse astrocytoma ( 75% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-11-18; known on 2021-12-09; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.

I will have a job before 250 applications ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by waldo2525 on 2021-11-15; known on 2022-11-15; judged wrong by waldo2525 on 2022-04-06.

[IFComp 2021] <4 of the top 10 scoring games are in my personal top 10 ( 80% confidence )