Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Housing crash (average price down at least 30%) in Ontario, Canada by the end of the year. ( 20% confidence )
Created by ianc on 2021-05-09; known on 2022-01-02; judged wrong by ianc on 2022-01-02.
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Personal, Productivity – I read, make Anki cards for (if appropriate), and do a practice question session for C6 of Cracking the Coding Interview. ( 82% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-05-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-07.
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behnke 13.02.1965 GCT ( 80% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-06-01.
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Facebook's Oversight Board will rule to reinstate Donald Trump's account ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by lithp on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-05.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for C5 of my book by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-04; known on 2021-05-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-05.
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Portugal's Covid Vaccination – I (a healthy 27 year old who didn't yet get the 1st dose) will get my 2nd dose during 2022 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LouisLC on 2021-05-02; known on 2022-04-01; judged wrong by LouisLC on 2021-11-03.
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Personal, Productivity – I read chapters 4 and 5 and make Anki cards as appropriate before deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-02; known on 2021-05-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-03.
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Armin Laschet becomes the next chancellor of Germany after Angela Merkel ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-10-20.
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Germany's Green party gets the most seats in Bundestag 2021 ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by M on 2021-10-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for (if necessary) chapter 3 of my book by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-05-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-03.
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SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 47% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-30; known on 2027-01-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I go through Chapter 2 of book by deadline. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-30; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-01.
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Blue Origin will charge between 50,000 to 200,000 for a ride on New Shepard. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-29; known on 2021-09-15.
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The GAO will not uphold Blue Origin's protest of the HLS bid. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-03.
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I will break my 251 day Anki review streak within my lifetime. (Wait… who is going to resolve this question?) ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-04-25; known on 2221-04-25.
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I will keep my current Anki streak for another 100 days. ( 3% confidence )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-04-25; known on 2021-07-27; judged wrong by Morpheus on 2021-05-02.
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26.05.1963 08.04.21 DNET MVNT ( 80% confidence )
Created by Almatter on 2021-04-23; known on 2021-05-23.
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News, UK – “suspicious object” at Seafield recycling center is not a functional explosive. Decides unknown if no resolving news by deadline. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-22; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-22.
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AR glasses announced at Apple Event ( 10% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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Apple TV announced at Apple Event ( 33% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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AirTags announced at Apple Event ( 75% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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iMac with Apple Silicon announced at Apple Event ( 40% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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iPad Pro w/ MiniLED announced at Apple Event ( 90% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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btc at 100k+ in two years ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-04-19; known on 2023-04-19; judged wrong by htaussig on 2023-05-17.
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eth at 5k+ in a year ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-04-19; known on 2022-04-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-20.
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Germany's Greens choose Robert Habeck as chancellor candidate before May ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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Germany's CDU/CSU will choose Armin Laschet as chancellor candidate before May ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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Politics, US – The US government considers itself to be meeting the troop withdrawal requirements of the 'US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan' at the start of 2021-10-01. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-10-17.
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COVID, UK – Indoor social meetings of 6 people in England allowed on or before the 18th of May 2021. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-19.
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COVID, UK – Indoor social meetings of 6 people in England allowed on or before the 10th of May 2021. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-11; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.
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Personal, Productivity – I do another interview prep practice session by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-04-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-24.
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Personal – I try to develop a “potential breakthrough” as my choiceworthiness model of today puts it before 2050. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-16; known on 2027-01-01; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2021-05-04.
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Personal, Productivity – I do at least an hour's work for G by deadline. ( 92% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-16; known on 2021-04-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-18.
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The Californian 2021 fire season will burn more than 4,257,863 acres (as reported by a CalFire page such as https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/ or https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/) ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by lithp on 2023-01-02.
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The J&J vaccine will be administered in the US on May 1st: either administration is not paused or it is paused and resumed before May 1st ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-05-01.
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Alexei Navalny (Alexei Anatolievich Navalny) (born 4 June 1976) dies within five (5) years ( 67% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2021-04-13; known on 2026-04-13.
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SN-15 to fly by the end April ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-12; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-01.
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I'll fall asleep within one hour. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-04-09; known on 2021-04-10; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-04-10.
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China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 20% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2021-04-09; known on 2025-12-31.
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Going to finish 2 books in April ( 90% confidence )
Created by Alk on 2021-04-06; known on 2021-04-30.
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I am going to resign before the end of May ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Alk on 2021-04-06; known on 2021-05-31.
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I am going to produce more than 20 kg tomatoes ( 70% confidence )
Created by Alk on 2021-04-06; known on 2021-09-01.
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Donald Trump starts a new political party before the end of 2024 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-04-05; known in 10 days; judged unknown by n99 on 2022-10-28.
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Flying cars by 2025 ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by robbins042 on 2021-04-05; known on 2021-04-05.
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I will graduate College ( 100% confidence )
Created by SRA311CK on 2021-04-04; known on 2022-01-16; judged right by Goddess on 2022-04-30.
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Over 50% of current drivers will be using auto driven cars.1 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Yoro on 2021-04-04; known on 2040-01-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I read up to page 650 of GEB by deadline. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-03; known on 2021-04-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-03.
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I get a COVID vaccine before the end of April ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-04-03; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-04-30.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] none of these parties ( 1% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] FDP (liberal party) ( 2% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Die Linke (socialist party) ( 3% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] AfD (nationalist party) ( 2% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] SPD (social democratic party) ( 12% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged right by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Bündnis '90 die Grünen (green party) ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by atzeje on 2022-01-04.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] CDU or CSU (conservative party) ( 40% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[Covid origin:] The virus is definitively found to be a bioweapon, released deliberately or accidently by 2023 (<1% chance) ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.
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[Covid origin:] A natural origin near Wuhan is found for the virus by 2023 ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.
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[Covid origin:] The origin of COVID will still be indeterminate on 1 Jan 2023 ( 65% confidence )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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The Video about Magnus Carlsen retiring from Chess is an April Fool's Joke ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sty.silver on 2021-03-31; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by sty.silver on 2021-03-31.
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I will lose my virginity before the Turing test is passed (operationalized as the $25,000 Loebner Prize) ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will still be a NEET (including retired early) on my 30th birthday ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2029-03-01.
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I will be unemployed during the entirety of 2021 ( 75% confidence )
Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by lazydope on 2021-12-24.
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I will lose my virginity before I turn 24 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2023-03-01.
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I will lose my virginity before I turn 23 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by lazydope on 2022-03-25.
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I will get a first vaccine shot by end of may ( 75% confidence )
Created by dstephens99 on 2021-03-30; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by dstephens99 on 2021-06-01.
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I (a VA resident in phase 1c) will receive my first vaccine dose on or before April 22. ( 25% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2021-03-30; known on 2021-04-22; judged right by dmwit on 2021-04-22.
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Will we be able to upload our consciousness to the cloud by the year 3000? ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kadavy on 2021-03-29; known on 3000-01-01.
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Heike Behnke gct ( 80% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2021-03-26; known on 2021-04-01.
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Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-31.
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SpaceX to land a version of Starship on Mars by the end of 2026. ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-24; known on 2027-01-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I make at least one Anki card for a paper I've read today. ( 92% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-24; known on 2021-03-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-25.
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The AstraZeneca vaccine will receive an EUA for use in the US by May 1st ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-01.
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Burning Man 2021 will happen (some time this fall at least 10k people will simultaneously be in Black Rock Desert) ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-05.
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I won't wake up sick tommorrow ( 90% confidence )
Created by sallatik on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-03-23.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for another paper by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-25.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for an additional chapter of my mathematics textbook by deadline. ( 82% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-29.
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Personal, Productivity – I extend my Guesstimate model with farmed fish and cow welfare by deadline. ( 87% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-28.
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Politics, US – Derek Chauvin convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) by 1st of June 2021. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by lazydope on 2021-04-23.
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I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-07-01 ( 90% confidence )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
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I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-06-01 ( 80% confidence )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
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I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-05-01 ( 70% confidence )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
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humans on mars by 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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My bike will be where I left it yesterday, near Helenelund station. #crime #environment ( 85% confidence )
Created by sallatik on 2021-03-20; known on 2021-03-20; judged right by sallatik on 2021-03-20.
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Based on here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToBdcRGsqr8 The one in the blue dress was the mole. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-03-19; known on 2021-03-19; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2021-03-19.
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I'll use this more than five times before april 1, 2021 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by vcavallo on 2021-03-18; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by vcavallo on 2021-04-01.
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Politics, Europe – EU or a member state thereof restricts export of Pfizer vaccines, to the UK, with a justification relating to the UK not exporting enough AZ vaccine to the EU or a member state thereof, by end of April 2021. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-17; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-01.
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COVID, US – The CDC lists five or more variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.
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COVID, US – The CDC lists four variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.
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COVID, US – The CDC lists three or fewer variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.
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Personal, Productivity – I extend my choiceworthiness model in Guestimate with cash transfers by deadline. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-17.
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Personal, Productivity – I read (not necessarily make flashcards for) another chapter of my math textbook by deadline. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-15.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make flashcards for another paper by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-20.
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India makes (attempts to make) it illegal for exchanges to facilitate trading bitcoin. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by galaga on 2021-03-12; known on 2021-04-12; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-13.
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“Starship will never land in one piece on the moon or Mars” ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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Daniel wants to talk with me about his podcast. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-03-11; known on 2021-03-11; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2021-03-11.
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andrew yang becomes mayor of new york ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-08; known on 2021-11-03; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-11-08.
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Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan recives over 60% of the votes in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.
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Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan wins in the first round of the London Mayoral election. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.