Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Prediction Book will be the next big thing to hit!!!!!!!!! ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rosy on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by widz on 2010-02-17.
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Bill Murray will die in Ghostbusters 3 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Miley Cyrus will fade out of the spotlight in 2 years with the cut from Hannah Montana ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.
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Posh spice, Victoria Beckham fashion label will hit an all time low in 2010 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-06-16; judged right by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10.
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Tiger Woods and Elin Nordegren will seperate within the year ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10.
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Katy Perry and Russel Brand will have a baby boy in October 2010 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Avatar will stay in the top 10 Box Office till March 2010 ( 80% confidence )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged right by mavmetropolis on 2010-02-10.
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Nicole Richie for a third baby in 2010 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-16.
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A new social networking site will overtake Facebook as the most used website by October 2010 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The world will not end in 2012 ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Khloe Kardashian is pregnant ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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I will predict that Gossip Girl will not last 2 more seasons on T.V ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by Nads on 2010-02-10.
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Avatar will win best picture at the academy awards. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-12-16; judged wrong by Phil on 2010-02-10.
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Brazil will win the world cup 2010 ( 90% confidence )
Created by taticorr on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-06-16; judged wrong by geralis32 on 2010-02-10.
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Melbourne Victory to win A-Legue season 2009-2010 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by rosy on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-01-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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People will start rolling their jeans up from the bottom ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged right by gracelouise on 2010-02-09.
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The Conservative Party will win a majority in the UK parliament, in the 2010 general election. ( 85% confidence )
Created by simontrigowhite on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-05-16; judged wrong by simontrigowhite on 2010-05-19.
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I will still identify as Theist in a year ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by MrHen on 2010-02-03; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by MrHen on 2011-01-01.
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The University of Kentucky Men's basketball team will not win the 2010 NCAA Division 1 Championship. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Jack on 2010-01-26; known on 2010-04-06; judged right by Jack on 2010-06-16.
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the bub will be a boy ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2010-01-25; known on 2010-03-29; judged right by Frank on 2010-03-29.
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I like smoked gouda ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by senile on 2010-01-21; known on 0139-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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I will get into Bishop's ( 90% confidence )
Created by BlackandRedStreaks on 2010-01-21; known on 2010-04-16; judged right by saralehman on 2010-04-01.
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Investling site will be live ( 70% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2010-01-19; known on 2010-01-20; judged right by Wes on 2010-01-20.
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I will post a blog post on anthropics within one week ( 70% confidence )
Created by KatjaGrace on 2010-01-15; known on 2010-01-22; judged wrong by KatjaGrace on 2010-01-26.
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The paper I'm reading about the implications of an infinite number of people in every situation in the universe will conclude that we can still be ethical ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KatjaGrace on 2010-01-15; known on 2010-01-17; judged right by KatjaGrace on 2010-01-16.
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KD is K D P/L ( 95% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2010-01-08; known on 2010-01-08; judged wrong by nomadphase on 2010-01-11.
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I get into MIT ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-03-14.
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I get into CalTech. ( 2% confidence )
Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-03-13.
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I get into Harvey Mudd ( 5% confidence )
Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-03-25.
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I get into Stanford ( 2% confidence )
Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-06-10.
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more than 4 chavs will get on my bus before I get off ( 65% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-30; known on 2009-12-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-31.
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I will finish my PhD degree within the next three years. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2009-12-30; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-09-27.
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I will track more than 4 hours of useful work before 6pm tomorrow ( 75% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-28; known on 2009-12-29; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-29.
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My visitors will not arrive before 12pm ( 70% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-27; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-28.
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I will be able to run 20km in under 2 hours by July 1st ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-26; known on 2010-07-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2010-07-02.
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Someone (likely a tall German) will have an Xbox plugged into the Trike TV before New Year's Day. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-12-22; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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Plan Deliver website will be available at its proper home before the Christmas break ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Wes on 2009-12-21; known on 2009-12-23; judged right by Wes on 2009-12-23.
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I will need 6 hours to implement the K feature 1895261 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-16; known on 2009-12-17; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-12-16.
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50% of Trike staff will be drunk @ the christmas party… ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-13; known on 2009-12-19; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-12-20.
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There will be no new PD clients till the end of the year :( ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-13; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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We will have K open to the 7 friendly dentists by the end of the week ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dgoodlad on 2009-12-13; known on 2009-12-18; judged wrong by dgoodlad on 2009-12-20.
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I will make it to the Saturday 2009 Dec 12th OBLW meetup. ( 60% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-12-12; known on 2009-12-12; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-12.
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The spot price of gold will be $1200/ounce or above on December 31, 2010. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2009-12-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2019-12-08.
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The weather will get hot and sunny again for the weekend (30+ degrees) ( 25% confidence )
Created by dgoodlad on 2009-12-06; known on 2009-12-12; judged wrong by dgoodlad on 2009-12-13.
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Tansel will be @ the doctor at least once this week ( 90% confidence )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-06; known on 2009-12-11; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-12-13.
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The 10 dentists will use Kando by the end of the week… ( 40% confidence )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-06; known on 2009-12-11; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-12-13.
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Zach was looking at Newark, DE because there is no second “Newark in New Jersey near the Pennsylvania border”. ( 99% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-12-05; known on 2009-12-06; judged right by olimay on 2009-12-06.
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I will graduate from college in May of next year. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jack on 2009-12-02; known on 2010-06-01; judged right by Jack on 2010-06-16.
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I will have saasu set up by end of Friday this week ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fionajohnston on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-05; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-12-22.
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i will be able to stand on a surf board for more than 5 sec after this weekend ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-06; judged right by Tom on 2009-12-06.
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Kando will be ready (in respect to the features) to get the 10 dentists on ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tom on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by Tom on 2009-12-06.
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We'll find a human-based way to fix integration with MYOB or opt for a different accounting solution. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-30; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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I will go to the gym every day this week (Mon-Fri) ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dgoodlad on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-05; judged wrong by dgoodlad on 2009-12-05.
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The DSL modem will arrive today ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dgoodlad on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-11-30; judged wrong by dgoodlad on 2009-11-30.
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The “LessWrong Singularity article” will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/ ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Pavitra on 2009-11-25; known on 2010-03-15; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2010-03-17.
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Integration with a certain financial package will cause pain on K by the end of next week ( 80% confidence )
Created by blorh on 2009-11-25; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by blorh on 2009-12-02.
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PlanDeliver retail site content will be finished by the end of the week ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wes on 2009-11-24; known on 2009-11-27; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-11-29.
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I will finish planning lessons before I go to bed ( 90% confidence )
Created by brownguy22 on 2009-11-23; known on 2009-11-23; judged right by brownguy22 on 2009-11-23.
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I will have automated the rollout of a ruby site by the end of the week. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jon on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-27; judged wrong by jon on 2009-11-27.
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Our TV will be set up (connected to a server, some kind of status report) til the end of the week ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-28; judged right by Tom on 2009-11-29.
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All actions on PD (allocation related) will be handled in JS only ( 75% confidence )
Created by Tom on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-24; judged right by Tom on 2009-11-25.
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Cannabis will be legalized throughout the USA. ( 78% confidence )
Created by said on 2009-11-18; known on 2037-08-31; judged wrong by COng on 2010-02-10.
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saints win Superbowl ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by hoodoo2 on 2009-11-18; known on 2010-02-07; judged right by hoodoo2 on 2010-02-09.
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Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Citizen553 on 2009-11-18; known on 2159-11-18; judged unknown by Jack on 2010-01-26.
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Total deaths from the swine flu this year will be less than the deaths from normal seasonal flu. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by stupidrobots on 2009-11-17; known on 2010-03-16; judged wrong by dakyne on 2009-12-09.
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Absolutely nothing apocalyptic will happen in the year 2012. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2009-11-17; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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I will drink at least 40 different beers before the end of the year ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by ledflyd on 2010-01-01.
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There will be no heat in my lab for at least half the days over the next week and a half ( 65% confidence )
Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-11-25; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2009-11-25.
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I will eat Thanksgiving dinner at my Aunt's house AND will not ingest any Turkey. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-11-26; judged right by ledflyd on 2009-11-27.
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During the next two weeks, at least half of my experimental data will be unusable for our presentation on Dec. 2, 2009. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-11-27; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2009-11-28.
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I will get frustrated with at least one of my co-workers today ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-11-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2009-11-16.
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My mother or father will call me today. ( 20% confidence )
Created by popojala on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged wrong by popojala on 2009-11-15.
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I won't get the swine flu during this year. ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by popojala on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Paddy will give me or have had prepared a check payable to me by the end of today. ( 52% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-16.
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Oliver will share a meal, or, while consuming a meal, company with both Zach and Ruchi on at least two occasions before his birthday. ( 95% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-06; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-05.
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I will be in New York City by noon today. ( 80% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-14.
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I will order food from a restaurant with the word “Chinese” somewhere on its printed menu no fewer than 3 times before the end of this year. ( 80% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2010-01-01.
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I will weigh less than 170 lbs on my birthday and in my birthday suit. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-06; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-06.
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I'll fall asleep before 5AM today. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-14.
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I will go to bed (and fall asleep) before 5AM every day next week, which I'll say starts Sunday. ( 20% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-21; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-26.
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I will write and publish one complete short story on the internet (public internet) before my birthday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-06; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-06.
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I will get at least one paid freelance design or programming job in the next two weeks. ( 20% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-28; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-05.
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Claire and I will go to the Met Museum of Art sometime on 2009-11-20. ( 20% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-21; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-26.
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I'll make it on time (within 7 minutes of 15:00 UTC, by Sprint Mobile network time) to the OB/LW NYC meetup on 2009-11-14. ( 50% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-14.
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I'll publish at least 15 (different) posts on False Symmetry before my birthday. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-06; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-06.
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I'll see Eric Li in person on two separate days before the end of November. ( 30% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-01; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-01.
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I won't directly pay any doctor, doctor's office, or hospital any amount of money for medical services rendered to me for the rest of this year. ( 80% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2010-01-01.
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I'll make at least $500 from now until the rest of the year. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by olimay on 2010-01-01.
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All my immediate family members will be either alive or have had their brains successfully cryopreserved at the beginning of 2011. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2011-01-01.
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LW Meetup Locator's map and input form functionality will functioning and in production by the end of November. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-01; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-01.
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My Sony VAIO laptop will still be functional enough to watch/listen to streamed YouTube videos at the end of 2010, with no part upgrades costing > $15. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2011-01-01.
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By 2010-02-01 Oliver will have paid the minimum monthly amount requested as indicated on the Student Loan Corporation statements for 2010-Jan using his own, unborrowed funds. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by olimay on 2010-02-01.
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Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-05-01; judged wrong by olimay on 2010-05-01.
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I will attend Reed College ( 78% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by philology on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-05-01; judged wrong by philology on 2010-05-02.
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Iran's current regime will continue its nuclear program — or be overthrown — rather than accept the current (Oct 2009) offer to have nuclear materials processed elsewhere (such as Russia). ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by robo45h on 2009-11-13; known on 2010-11-13; judged right by gwern on 2010-11-13.
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CITCON Europe 2010 will happen in Prague ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elefevre on 2009-11-12; known on 2010-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 21% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.
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Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 36% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2012-12-16.
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combined iphone app sales for November > 250 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-12-07; judged right by Frank on 2009-12-07.