Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11653 | 16240 | 16689 | 17377 | 31095 | 7982 | 101036 |
Recent Predictions
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Padding my 100% with almost nonsense predictions will be frowned upon by the less enlightened ( 79% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-24.
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I have already made predictions in predictionbook ( 100% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-15; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-15.
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My PB chart (http://bit.ly/nV7rV) will still look very embarrassing at the end of the week. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-21.
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Radiopaedia will go live on or before Wed next week (week beginning 21 Sep) ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Wes on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-24; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-09-24.
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I will have adapted to subconsiously use caps lock instead of backspace (or ctrl-h) by this time next week ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-20; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-15.
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I will have tests running against aws by the end of today. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jon on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-14; judged right by jon on 2009-09-15.
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I will have written and submitted my Trike profile ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-21.
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We will have another Plandeliver client (verbal agreement) by the end of the week ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-21; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-21.
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Editing an order in plandeliver will be live at the end of today ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-14; judged right by Tom on 2009-09-15.
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I will learn touch typing and start using it in half of my typing ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tansel on 2009-09-09; known on 2009-09-23; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-24.
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I'll send Katrina some designs I'm happy with this week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-08; known on 2009-09-12; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-13.
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I will have AWS servers built and ready for testing. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jon on 2009-09-08; known on 2009-09-09; judged wrong by jon on 2009-09-10.
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Round 2 and 3 of the Radiopaedia styling will be completed. Where completed means released to dev. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wes on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged right by Wes on 2009-09-14.
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we'll have implemented free-text searching by selectable filters (new approach) ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-14.
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I will make two more predictions before the weeks end. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jon on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-11; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-15.
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At least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Sunday ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-13; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-09-14.
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I will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-13; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-12.
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I will work Friday ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-11; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-11.
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We will start working on the MyOB integration at Kando ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-14.
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Kando will be live first of december ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-12-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-12-01.
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I will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand ( 60% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-06; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-06.
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At least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Monday ( 70% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-06; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-07.
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Matt will report (@ the standup) that he has done 'admini' at least 3 times this week. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-06.
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I will have closed all the currently open podshifter tickets relating to broken feeds ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-06; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-09-07.
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Round 2 of the Radiopaedia redesign integration will be completed ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Wes on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-09-07.
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we'll have finished refactoring variants into products ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged right by captainpete on 2009-09-07.
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we'll be experimenting with meat-spaced project management system ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-07.
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Will finish rewriting all Amirsys articles by now ( 50% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2009-08-14; known on 2009-08-21; judged right by Frank on 2009-08-21.
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Michael Schumacher will finish the 2009 season in the Top 10 ( 55% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-30; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by Bébhinn on 2009-08-16.
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Michael Schumacher will beat Raikkonen at Valencia 2009 ( 65% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-30; known on 2009-08-23; judged wrong by Bébhinn on 2009-08-16.
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Michael Schumacher will finish in the points at Valencia 2009 ( 72% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-30; known on 2009-08-30; judged wrong by Bébhinn on 2009-08-16.
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St. Kilda will beat Geelong today by fewer than 10 points. ( 77% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-05; known on 2009-07-05; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-05.
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Fabian Cancellara will finish the 2009 Tour de France in the Top 3 ( 72% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-05; known on 2009-07-27; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-26.
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Lance Armstrong will finish the Tour de France in the Top 5. ( 69% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-05; known on 2009-07-27; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-26.
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Sarah Palin is mounting a 2012 presidential campaign ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-13.
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Venus Williams will make it three-in-a-row at the Wimbledon 2009 Women's Final ( 72% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04; known on 2009-07-05; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04.
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Config (short for configuration) will appear in the Merriam Webster dictionary as proper word ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-06-24; known on 2014-06-24; judged wrong by Glenn on 2014-06-24.
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L'OM sera-t-il champion de France en 2010 ? ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Faiste on 2009-06-23; known on 2010-06-23; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Jon & Kate Plus 8 – Jon & Kate will get back together within a year ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-23; known on 2010-06-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Jon & Kate Plus 8 – The show will go on, in some capacity ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-23; known on 2009-12-23; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Wimbledon 2009 Men's Final: Federer V Murray ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-22; known on 2009-07-06; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04.
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World-wide Search-Engine Market-Share: Bing & Microsoft will replace yahoo in the #2 spot for a prolonged period (Minimum of 1 week). ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-22; known on 2009-09-22; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-10-16.
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Federer will win Wimbledon 2009 ( 67% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-22; known on 2009-07-06; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-05.
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Q4 stocks will falter and the markets will pull back. Gold and silver will move up greatly in proportion to how much the market indexes fall. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by CRNewsReports© on 2009-06-17; known on 2009-12-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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North Korea's President Kim Jong-il's goal is to stabilize it's position in the world before he announces his resignation and appoints his 26 year old son to the presidency. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by CRNewsReports© on 2009-06-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-19.
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Q4 stocks will falter and the markets will pull back then gold and silver will move up greatly! ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by CRNewsReports on 2009-06-15; known on 2009-06-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Magic will win, pushing the Lakers to game 6 tonight. ( 62% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-14; known on 2009-06-15; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-15.
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England will reach the 2009 World Twenty20 semi-finals. ( 65% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-14; known on 2009-06-21; judged right by vtstarin on 2009-06-16.
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Twitter – @peterfacinelli will surpass his goal of 500K followers by June 19, winning his bet with @211me. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-14; known on 2009-06-20; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-22.
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Kevin Rose will have a date with Jennifer Aniston by the end of the year. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Lina on 2009-06-10; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by Lina on 2010-01-02.
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The US will successfully negotiate the release of Laura Ling and Euna Lee from North Korea ( 22% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-10; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-08-04.
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That the timing function on prediction book won't be fixed to take account of “local” time in the next 2 days ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by CRobert on 2009-06-04; known on 2009-06-06; judged right by CRobert on 2009-06-07.
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Snow Leopard will not feature a redone UI ( 85% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2009-06-04; known on 2009-08-28; judged right by Wes on 2009-06-08.
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The release date for Snow Leopard will be announced at WWDC. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2009-06-04; known on 2009-06-08; judged right by Wes on 2009-06-08.
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Third generation iPhone will be announced at WWDC ( 90% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2009-06-04; known on 2009-06-08; judged right by Wes on 2009-06-08.
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Kelly Slater will win his 10th world title in 2010 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by joloughlin on 2009-06-03; known on 2010-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-16.
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We will end up chosing the vegetarian degustation menu. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by CRobert on 2009-06-02; known on 2009-05-31; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-06-04.
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I will make it home before 7pm tonight ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by CRobert on 2009-06-02; known on 2009-06-02; judged right by CRobert on 2009-06-02.
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Billabong shares will increase by more that 10% within the next 2 months ( 62% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Andy on 2009-06-01; known on 2009-08-01; judged right by Andy on 2009-06-03.
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Buffy the Vampire Slayer will make it to the Big Screen ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2011-06-01.
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The recession will end this year ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Google Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-01.
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Apple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by crlosg2 on 2009-05-31; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05.
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The Palm Pre will be an iPhone killer ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-31; known on 2010-05-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Serena Williams will win the 2009 French Open ( 65% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-31; known on 2009-06-07; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-06.
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Button will be the world champion ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by vishnushashank on 2009-05-30; known on 2009-09-15; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-18.
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Google wave will be a new always open tab in my browser. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-28; known on 2010-01-06; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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Google will lose their soul. We'll love them less in the coming years. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-28; known on 2011-05-27; judged wrong by Lina on 2011-05-27.
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic tonight – Cavs will win ( 60% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-27; known on 2009-05-27; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-27.
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The senate will confirm, Sotomayor, Obama's nominee to the Supreme Court ( 80% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26; known on 2009-08-14; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-08-07.
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California's Supreme Court will overturn the ban on gay marriage ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26; known on 2009-05-27; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26.
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Lakers will take down the Nuggets again tonight. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Bébhinn on 2009-05-26; known on 2009-05-26; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26.
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The sun will rise ( 100% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2009-05-25; known on 2009-05-26; judged right by Andy on 2009-05-26.
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Susan Boyle will win Britain's Got Talent 2009 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Miyo on 2009-05-25; known on 2009-05-31; judged wrong by Miyo on 2009-05-31.
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The Lakers will have the edge at tonight's playoff ( 55% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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A Brawn car will win the 2009 Monaco F1 Grand Prix ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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Button will win the 2009 Monaco F1 Grand Prix ( 65% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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The safety car will make an appearance at the Monaco F1 Grand Prix ( 20% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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The LA Lakers will beat the Denver Nuggets tonight ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-19; known on 2009-05-20; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-20.
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Graph axes will have labels by this Friday ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-05-19; known on 2009-05-22; judged right by dariusp686 on 2009-05-20.
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Kris Allen will not win American Idol ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-19; known on 2009-05-21; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-21.
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Adam Lambert will win American Idol ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-18; known on 2009-05-21; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-21.
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Predicting a Celtics victory tonight ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-17; known on 2009-05-18; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-18.
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For Australia the sex ratio at birth is 1.05 male(s)/female. Stats overall are probably skewed by incidence of deliberate female foetus abortions. Therefore I am 50% sure it will be a boy ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EvF on 2009-05-17; known on 2009-06-17; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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@kevinrose and @tferriss will make a regular thing of Random ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-15; known on 2009-08-16; judged right by Lina on 2009-08-16.
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An email will be sent to me ( 98% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2009-05-15; known on 2009-05-15; judged right by Wes on 2009-05-15.
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It will be a girl. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Andy on 2009-05-15; known on 2009-11-16; judged right by Miyo on 2009-06-18.
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Australia will have a double-dissolution election in 2009 due to the Liberal party blocking changes to the private health insurance rebate. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by Lina on 2010-01-02.
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Andy and Miyo will have a baby boy ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Miyo on 2009-05-13; known on 2009-11-15; judged wrong by Miyo on 2009-06-18.
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this will email me at 15:10 and will link to pbook.dev.trike.com.au ( 69% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-13; known on 2009-05-13; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-13.
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these two machines are the same deployment ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-12; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-12.
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glenn will find this prediction today and tell me if there is any way to search all predictions ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-13; judged right by Lina on 2009-05-12.
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prediction book will go live at predictionbook.com today ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-13; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-05-13.
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the ASX S&P 200 will hit 4000 in the next month ( 80% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-11; known on 2009-06-11; judged right by Lina on 2009-06-11.
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Creating a prediction in IE7 on XP VM will work ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-11; known on 2009-05-11; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-11.
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The result of this coin flip will be heads ( 50% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-05-05; known on 2009-05-05; judged right by scott.arbeitman on 2009-05-05.
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I will not become a theist before the end of 2009. ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2009-05-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Pablo on 2009-12-30.
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There will be a market crash of a combined magnitude (perhaps over a few days) of around 10%. ( 90% confidence )
Created by marquisdetrade on 2009-04-30; known on 2009-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Created by dariusp686 on 2009-04-28; known on 2009-04-29; judged right by dariusp686 on 2009-04-28.
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Roger Federer will win the French Open. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Philip on 2009-04-24; known on 2009-06-07; judged right by Philip on 2009-06-07.