PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Bell/Carry sites will be live by Friday. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Matt on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-11-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-11-14.

DC practices management improvement job will be complete by Friday ( 60% confidence )

Created by Matt on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-11-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-11-14.

montgomery will defeat petterb in both of their dailygammon.com error rate tournament matches. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by refragable on 2009-10-28; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by refragable on 2010-01-01.

I will bill 20+ hours the first week of November, 2009. ( 30% confidence )

Created by refragable on 2009-10-28; known on 2009-11-08; judged wrong by refragable on 2009-11-08.

I will bill 15+ hours the week of 2009-10-25 to 2009-10-31. ( 50% confidence )

Created by refragable on 2009-10-28; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by refragable on 2009-11-01.

I will have sql backups on all servers using new backup script by end of week. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jon on 2009-10-27; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by jon on 2009-10-30.

The Radiopaedia content cleanup will be finished by the end of the week ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Wes on 2009-10-26; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by Wes on 2009-11-03.

Someone will explain, in this prediction perhaps, how there are 623 known predictions in the statistics, but only 700 predictions sitewide, and there are way more than 100 unknown predictions. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-23; known on 2009-11-06; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-06.

Notre Dame will beat BC ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by josephlawler on 2009-10-22; known on 2009-10-24; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

The current (10/21/09) predictionbook UI, with the right/wrong/unknown above the certainty/comments section, will still be sufficiently similar (and similarly bad) by 12/01/2009 that people mistakenly judging predictions will still happen at least three t ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-22; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by NineteenHalves on 2009-12-03.

Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-21; known on 3009-10-21.

The Portland Free Geek council meeting will not finish before 9:00pm tonight. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21; known on 2009-10-22; judged right by Martin Chase on 2009-10-22.

We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-20; known on 2010-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-02.

My 8 month old son will take a nap of at least 30 minutes starting in the next 4 hours. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by taiyo on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-20; judged right by taiyo on 2009-10-20.

The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Martin and/or Shana will get sick enough to notice (upset stomach) from the Hedgehog mushroom Shana found. ( 14% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-22; judged wrong by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21.

Martin and/or Shana will get sick enough to have to go to the doctor from eating the hedgehog mushroom Shana found. ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-22; judged wrong by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21.

The kittens will still have giardia. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-10.

The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

If the Democratic Health Reform plan passes, private, group insurance premiums will increase more than 30% by 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by freyley on 2015-10-22.

There will be a public option in the upcoming health reform ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2010-07-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known in 21 days.

I will spend most of Friday (20%t) on PBook ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Glenn on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-11-01.

The mind body problem will not be solved. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tobias_M on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-19; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-20.

There will be more than 1000 PB predictions before Fri. Oct. 23, 2009. There are ~ 650 @ 6PM PDT, Sun. Oct. 18. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-10-23.

Radiopaedia work will be finalised (for now) by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )

Created by Wes on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-26; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-10-26.

Twitter.com is currently ranked 13 on Alexa. On October 31 at 7pm PST it will be ranked 13 or higher. (I've done nothing to investigate how rankings have been changing or how often.) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ektimo on 2009-10-18; known on 2009-10-31; judged wrong by ektimo on 2009-11-03.

I will pass my Mods ( 99% confidence )

Created by Larks on 2009-10-18; known on 2010-07-16; judged right by Larks on 2010-07-22.

I will become the Maths & Philosophy MURC representative at the next MURC meeting ( 95% confidence )

Created by Larks on 2009-10-18; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by Larks on 2009-10-23.

I will finish my problem sheets on Calculous of One Variable, do the pre-reading for Logic and Reasoning and Proofs, and at least one of the non-compulsary pure questions, by the end of today. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Larks on 2009-10-18; known on 2009-10-19; judged wrong by Larks on 2009-10-19.

Orchard Supply and Hardware will have a fire extinguisher which they can sell us. ( 95% confidence )

Created by MBlume on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-10-18; judged right by MBlume on 2009-10-18.

By Nov. 01, 2009, PB will stop silently truncating long prediction descriptions. Currently, there is no user feedback or indication that there is a length limit. The last part of the description just disappears after you subm ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-11-01.

A significant number of people will comment here that they modify initial self-predictions of greater than 50% upwards to account for anticipation of putting extra effort into it because it was judged more likely than not. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by anonym on 2010-01-01.

Prediction Book will not have eliminated its performance problems by Nov. 1, 2009. Many page requests will still take more than 4 seconds to load. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-01.

Chicago Bears will make playoffs. ( 57% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Philo on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-04; judged wrong by Philo on 2010-01-04.

Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-12-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-21.

Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.

This website's statistics will show that people pick percentages with a '2' in them anomalously often- presumably due to priming from the 'my 2 cents' ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Larks on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-16; judged wrong by Larks on 2010-01-16.

No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.

Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 8% confidence; 28 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.

In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 26% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.

In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 46% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2060-12-31.

When I turn on my brother's just upgraded macbook, it'll work. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-10-17; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-17.

I will still be alive in 2200, meaning that the software that I am — or some modification of it — will still be running then. ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2200-01-01.

I will have read all the science fiction works of Iain M. Banks (those published with 'M.' in both UK and USA) by end of 2009. ( 80% confidence )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by anonym on 2010-01-01.

I will not be diagnosed with cancer before the age of 45. ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2019-01-01.

I will still be at my current job on Nov. 17, 2009. ( 96% confidence )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-17; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-15.

There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.

There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2016-01-01.

I will get up before 10 AM both weekend days. ( 60% confidence )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-10-18; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-18.

Weed will not be legalized in California for the next 5 years ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aurasprw on 2009-10-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by mfb on 2014-01-13.

I'll join at least one collegue of mine for lunch today. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Drahflow on 2009-10-16; known on 2009-10-16; judged right by Drahflow on 2009-10-16.

One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of Goldman Sacks. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-06.

One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of a financial institution that has over $10 billion in assets. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-06.

Nagios will only contain legitimate errors/warnings by next friday. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jon on 2009-10-16; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by jon on 2009-10-27.

The President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by Cyan on 2009-11-10.

Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 80% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

One or more persons will be charged with the manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael Jackson before the end of the year. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Iran's current regime will be collapse within the next ten years. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by kess3r on 2009-10-15; known on 2019-10-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-16.

I will make my flight ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by LauraABJ on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-16; judged right by LauraABJ on 2009-10-17.

The child currently in the runaway balloon will survive ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-18; judged right by Jack on 2009-10-16.

I will have completed my topology homework by the end of the weekend. ( 60% confidence )

Created by im on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-19; judged wrong by im on 2009-10-29.

I will be entirely caught up on grading by the end of the weekend. ( 85% confidence )

Created by im on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-19; judged wrong by im on 2009-10-29.

This prediction will receive an odd number of wagers before it expires in one hour's time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by UnholySmoke on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-15; judged wrong by faws on 2009-10-22.

There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

PredictionBook will implement tagging for predictions in the next two months. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-12-15; judged wrong by Jack on 2009-12-28.

The Pirate Party will enter the Parliament of Berlin (Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus) in the 2011 election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by faws on 2011-09-23.

Monica will live in a different zipcode in 2014. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-15; known on 2014-10-15; judged right by freyley on 2014-10-15.

The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

The creators of this site will allow some sort of lesswrong.com ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-27.

Real soon now, there will be some public debate about whether PredictionBook is better suited to deal with personal-life type events or global-public-interest type events ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-29; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2009-10-29.

I'll get a full night sleep at least once before the weekend. ( 75% confidence )

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-17; judged right by jes5199 on 2009-10-15.

I'll go 48 hours without caffeine in the next two weeks ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-29; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2009-10-29.

Why The Lucky Stiff will proffer an explanation for his absence in the next year. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2010-10-15.

More than half of my predictions will be private. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-31; judged right by jes5199 on 2009-10-31.

I'll have made 100 predictions on prediction book by the end of the month ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-11-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-01.

CME's website will confirm that CME rule for electronic trading of ED futures gives indeed priority to official market makers over other users at a given price level. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by arthurb on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-17; judged wrong by arthurb on 2009-10-18.

This site will have a feature to hide other people's prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks. ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kess3r on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-28; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-12-03.

Lily Allen will return to twitter before the year end ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by pre on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by pre on 2009-12-31.

Glenn will arrive at Trike before 10am (GMT+10) today. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-14; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-10-15.

There will be a flood event that kills more than 200 people between 14 October and 14 November 2009. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by Arenamontanus on 2009-11-17.

There will be a storm/hurricane event killing more than 5000 people before 14 October 2010. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.

There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.

There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012. ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

The first exaflop performance supercomputer will be online before July 2019. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.

US Unemployment Rate in Dec 2009 will be greater than 10.00% ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-25.

Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6500 ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.

Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6000 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.

Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 8000 at end of 2009 ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.

US GDP will not decline by 10.0% or more from its peak value between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009 (inclusive) ( 95% confidence )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Democratic Party Candidate will not win Virginia gubernatorial election ( 91% confidence )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by freyley on 2009-11-05.

Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

By January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-02.

The Dow will close under 8,000 (in Oct. 2009 dollars) before Dec. 31st, 2010. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by tommccabe on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.

Germany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010. ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Drahflow on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by JFE on 2010-07-02.

A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

Statistics

Recent Predictions