Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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The spot price of NYMEX crude oil will be $100/barrel or higher on December 31, 2015. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Chile will defeat Honduras ( 65% confidence )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-09; known on 2010-06-16; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Bin Laden and USA are working together ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06; known on 2030-05-06; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-06.
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India will win the T20 world cup ( 90% confidence )
Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06; known on 2010-06-16; judged right by poke on 2010-05-06.
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Maash will be married by the age of 28 with one child ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06; known on 2018-05-06; judged wrong by poke on 2010-05-06.
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The Indian economy will surpass the USA economy by 2020 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06; known on 2020-05-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-05-08.
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Will Karishma find a boyfriend by the end of this year ( 60% confidence )
Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06; known on 2010-12-16; judged wrong by poke on 2010-05-06.
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Manchester United will defeat Stoke and lift the EPL again ( 55% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-05; known on 2010-05-10; judged wrong by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-09.
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Chelsea will drop points against Wigan and fail to win the EPL ( 60% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-05; known on 2010-05-10; judged wrong by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-09.
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Will Jay ever make it to the candy mountain? ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-05; known on 2010-05-05; judged right by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06.
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The killers front man will debut a solo album ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by musicpredictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-05-04; judged wrong by mark.p on 2010-05-05.
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Gorillaz new album will go platinum ( 100% confidence )
Created by musicpredictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-05-04; judged wrong by deaz on 2010-05-17.
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Muse will come back down under to do another Australian tour before the end of the year ( 50% confidence )
Created by musicpredictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-05-04; judged right by mark.p on 2010-05-05.
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Slashs new album will flop! ( 75% confidence )
Created by musicpredictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-05-04; judged right by mark.p on 2010-05-05.
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Jimi Hendrix new album 'Valley of Neptune' will go platinum ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by musicpredictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2011-07-02; judged right by musicpredictor on 2010-05-04.
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Justin Bieber's voice will break in the coming year. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DianneD on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-12-04; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-10.
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Slovenia will defeat Algeria ( 60% confidence )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-13; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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England will defeat USA ( 70% confidence )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-13; judged wrong by Jack on 2010-06-16.
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Greece will Defeat Korea ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-13; judged wrong by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-19.
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Argentina will defeat Nigeria ( 80% confidence )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-13; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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France will defeat Uruguay ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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South Africa will lose to Mexico in the opening match of the 2010 World Cup ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Military style big bang this winter ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Chelsea win will the cup ( 97% confidence )
Created by mktg2010 on 2010-05-03; known on 2010-05-16; judged right by mktg2010 on 2010-05-11.
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Pin it ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-05-03; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by mark.p on 2010-05-05.
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In a few weeks, Dota Allstars 6.67c Ai will be released… ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mario1 on 2010-05-01; known on 2010-05-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Sunday 2nd may will have more than 2000 visitors ( 65% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-26; known on 2010-05-03; judged wrong by mario1 on 2010-05-01.
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none of our boxes shipped home will go missing ( 85% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-26; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by Frank on 2010-07-26.
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We will buy the house we are looking at. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-22; known on 2010-05-03; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-04-26.
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Will crack 250,000 pageviews in may ( 90% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-22; known on 2010-06-02; judged right by Frank on 2010-05-29.
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I predict the car that James Bond will drive in the next movie will not be an aston martin. ( 80% confidence )
Created by dusty.brouwer on 2010-04-21; known on 2011-07-02; judged right by poke on 2010-05-06.
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Shogun Rua will defeat Lyoto Machida at UFC 113 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predicted on 2010-04-21; known on 2010-05-08; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Bright and tight will light up this winter. ( 80% confidence )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-04-21; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Channel 9's pathetic tribute to murdered murderer Carl Williams will rate obscenely well. ( 80% confidence )
Created by chrisknows on 2010-04-19; known on 2010-04-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Blackburn will win the Eastern Footy League premiership ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by chrisknows on 2010-04-19; known on 2010-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-01.
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Mohsin Malik better stay video than Jay Sean ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by akavc15 on 2010-04-19; known on 2010-05-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Travel to Europe will be delayed for a week due to Volcanic ash. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by predicted on 2010-04-19; known on 2010-04-02; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Colin will not come over tonight ( 85% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-18; known on 2010-04-19; judged right by Frank on 2010-04-19.
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Neither angelina joli nor brad pitt will die in the next 12 months ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-18; known on 2011-07-02; judged right by Frank on 2011-07-02.
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Sunday traffic next week with be >2000 ( 73% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-18; known on 2010-04-26; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-04-26.
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Interest rates will be increased again in the next 4 months. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Marz on 2010-04-13; known on 2010-08-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-08-13.
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Mav will ask Miss Bobbi (the actress) out on a date by the end of July ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mavmetropolis on 2010-04-13; known on 2010-06-13; judged right by mavmetropolis on 2010-06-13.
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Winter warmth will be Thigh- High this season ( 80% confidence )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-04-12; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by arivera on 2010-04-20.
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Ivy will win so you think you can dance 2010 ( 90% confidence )
Created by melly on 2010-04-09; known on 2010-04-30; judged wrong by mario1 on 2010-05-01.
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reach 500 facebook fans by may 10st ( 80% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-05; known on 2010-05-11; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-05-11.
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there will be a vulcanic explosion in Japan! ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by guru on 2010-04-05; known on 2010-04-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-08-09.
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James has a massive penis ( 100% confidence )
Created by james on 2010-04-02; known on 2010-04-02; judged wrong by channers on 2010-04-12.
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They will never cure cancer in our lifetimes. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by james on 2010-04-02; known on 2010-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Pamela Anderson willl win Dancing with the stars! ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by saralehman on 2010-04-01; known on 2010-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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YES!, THE ALBUM WILL BE A HIT! ( 99% confidence )
Created by mela23 on 2010-03-31; known on 2010-04-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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i will fool people tomorrow!! ( 96% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by urban on 2010-03-31; known on 2010-04-01; judged wrong by saralehman on 2010-04-01.
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the easter holidays will go super fast!! ( 100% confidence )
Created by bubble on 2010-03-31; known on 2010-04-12; judged right by bubble on 2010-03-31.
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Transparent fashion will be a hit this season ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-03-29; known on 2010-08-29; judged right by plymoth on 2010-04-02.
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Aaron will get back to the island ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by melissasajeh on 2010-03-29; known on 2010-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-11.
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Iron Man 2 will be the top 10 movie in 2010 ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by melissasajeh on 2010-03-29; known on 2010-04-30; judged right by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-04.
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Eclipse will be as good as Twilight and New Moon and Bella will choose Edward! ( 90% confidence )
Created by melissasajeh on 2010-03-28; known on 2010-07-01; judged wrong by mario1 on 2010-05-01.
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Carlton will make 2010 Afl Finals ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-03-27; known on 2010-06-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham will make up the top 4 of the league ( 80% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor on 2010-03-25; known on 2010-05-09; judged right by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-09.
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The furry mono-brow will not make it big any time soon. ( 98% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-03-25; known on 2010-06-16; judged right by arivera on 2010-04-20.
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Portsmouth will defeat Tottenham in the FA Cup semi-final ( 67% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor on 2010-03-24; known on 2010-04-11; judged right by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-04.
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Aston Villa will narrowly lose to Chelsea in the FA cup Semi final ( 65% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor on 2010-03-24; known on 2010-04-10; judged right by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-04.
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Nicole will win Americans next top model, petites version. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Marz on 2010-03-24; known on 2010-04-27; judged right by Marz on 2010-05-02.
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The share price of gold is going to increase by 5% by the end of 2010. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Marz on 2010-03-24; known on 2010-12-30; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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bombers will finish in top 8 this season ( 40% confidence )
Created by mktg2010 on 2010-03-24; known on 2010-09-16; judged wrong by guru on 2010-04-05.
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Mark Webber will crash out Australian F1 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thechadisgreat on 2010-03-24; known on 2010-03-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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We'll be seeing a lot of fur vests this winter. ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-03-23; known on 2010-08-23; judged wrong by guru on 2010-04-20.
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United States will invade Australia and take over ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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USA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012 ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Mav will find out what the name of the gorgeous red head is…you know, the one who works at Gloria Jeans in the M:Town. Morning coffee…it's the highlight of my day ;) ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mavmetropolis on 2010-03-23; known on 2010-03-30; judged right by mavmetropolis on 2010-03-30.
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There will be another major natural disaster before the years over ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-06.
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Iowa State University will beat University of Iowa in football next season ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2010-09-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-13.
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Alonso will win the Australian F1 Grand Prix ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by p1 on 2010-03-22; known on 2010-03-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Lady Gaga will dominate the pop music industry for the next 5 years ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alicewilson on 2010-03-22; known on 2015-03-22; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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Blogger Susie Bubble of Style Bubble is headed to Sydney for fashion week in May. ( 80% confidence )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-03-22; known on 2010-05-22; judged wrong by guru on 2010-04-20.
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Tommy Ton of Jac & Jil blog will head down under for Rosemount Australian Fashion Week. ( 80% confidence )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-03-22; known on 2010-05-22; judged right by Angus on 2010-03-25.
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That one of my best friends will get married in june this year! ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Olivia on 2010-03-22; known on 2010-06-16; judged wrong by aklyatne on 2010-06-22.
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Paul Manoukian will get facebook. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kassey on 2010-03-22; known on 2010-06-18; judged wrong by Danni on 2010-06-29.
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Health Care Bill will be passed in the United States ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by predicted on 2010-03-22; known on 2011-01-31; judged right by predicted on 2010-03-22.
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My train home will be delayed by more than 3 minutes today. ( 80% confidence )
Created by wednesday on 2010-03-21; known on 2010-03-22; judged right by wednesday on 2010-03-22.
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The Socceroos will make it through the first round of the World Cup. ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predicted on 2010-03-21; known on 2010-06-23; judged wrong by Danni on 2010-06-29.
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Portsmouth, Hull and Burnley to be relegated ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EPL_Predictor on 2010-03-21; known on 2010-05-09; judged right by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-04.
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Aston Villa will make the Champions League ( 35% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor on 2010-03-21; known on 2010-05-09; judged wrong by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-09.
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Tottenham will make the Champions League ( 45% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor on 2010-03-21; known on 2010-05-09; judged right by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-09.
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Liverpool will make the Champions League ( 60% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor on 2010-03-21; known on 2010-05-09; judged wrong by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-04.
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Manchester City will make the Champions League ( 35% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor on 2010-03-21; known on 2010-05-09; judged wrong by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-09.
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Arsenal will win the English Premierleague ( 50% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor on 2010-03-20; known on 2010-05-09; judged wrong by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-04.
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Manchester United will win the English Premier league ( 50% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor on 2010-03-20; known on 2010-05-09; judged wrong by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-09.
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Chelsea will win the English Premier League ( 50% confidence )
Created by EPL_Predictor on 2010-03-20; known on 2010-05-09; judged right by EPL_Predictor on 2010-05-09.
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Muse will tour Australia again by the end of the year ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chris31 on 2010-03-20; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-06.
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i predict i won't use this site again. ( 75% confidence )
Created by ally on 2010-03-20; known on 2010-03-27; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Iowa Hawks win National Wrestling Tournament by 20 points ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by cmayer on 2010-03-19; known on 2010-03-20; judged right by cmayer on 2010-03-21.
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i will end up going on a holiday ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NATASHA on 2010-03-18; known on 2010-05-16; judged right by NATASHA on 2010-03-18.
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George Lucas is my father! ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by al3xal3x on 2010-03-18; known on 2010-04-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Tavi is actually JT Leroy's newest incarnation. ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-03-18; known on 2011-03-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-03-18.
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Kevin Rudd will resign in April 2010. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thdurp on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-05-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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tomorrow will be sunny? ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kristian on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-18; judged right by kristian on 2010-03-18.
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Aaron will become the follower of Jacob and will be the ruler of the island. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by monamur on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-11.
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Hugo is the chosen one because he is the only one who sees Jacob! ( 60% confidence )
Created by guru on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-05-27; judged right by juju on 2010-03-18.
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will bill get the fabled boxo on saturday night? ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by mastrinc14 on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-21; judged wrong by mastrinc14 on 2010-03-22.