Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11653 | 16240 | 16689 | 17377 | 31095 | 7982 | 101036 |
Recent Predictions
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andrew stellas will not hit the wall from one side of the room with a paper aeroplane on the full ( 87% confidence )
Created by jay_pitman on 2010-02-16; known on 2010-02-16; judged right by jay_pitman on 2010-02-16.
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Australia Vs Italy in World Cup Final ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by skinnyasianbitch on 2010-02-15; known on 2010-07-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Prediction book will get some desperately needed moderation. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack on 2010-02-15; known on 2010-03-15; judged wrong by al3xal3x on 2010-03-18.
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Created by magic on 2010-02-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The US will come in the top 5 in total number gold medals won at the 2010 Winter Olympics ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by AJF on 2010-02-12; known on 2010-02-28; judged right by d403 on 2010-03-01.
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Goncalo Amaral will lose his appeal against the banning of his book “The Truth About The Lie” http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8509563.stm ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by simontrigowhite on 2010-02-11; known on 2010-02-18; judged right by simontrigowhite on 2010-02-19.
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men will continue to forget about valentine's day ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by vivaladam on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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whaling aint gonna be prohibited because japanese people will build a large aquarium for them whales to breed ( 1% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by reymartfc on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Melmel will get banned from prediction book by the end of the class ( 99% confidence )
Created by Olyscott on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by Phil on 2010-02-10.
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is going to have sex with herself cos of phil ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Australia will change drinking age to 21 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kassey on 2010-02-10; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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Australia will win 5-0 against west indies ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by imNOTafob on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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japanese people will be replaced by their own robots ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by reymartfc on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by reymartfc on 2010-03-03.
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i will have sex tonight ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-11; judged wrong by Phil on 2010-02-10.
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Matthew Stokes will not learn from his mistake ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by imNOTafob on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by vivaladam on 2010-02-10.
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Australia vs Greece 2010 World Cup Final ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by christian on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-07-16; judged right by mikeykaka on 2010-02-10.
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The world won't end in 2012, unless Chuck Norris says so ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Phil on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by nicolas on 2010-02-10.
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Asian gangs in Melbourne will not cause trouble this weekend ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-17; judged right by Budha on 2010-02-22.
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i will be a millionaire ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mikeykaka on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by Alyssa.P on 2010-02-10.
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Micheal Jackson is pulling a Tupac ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2013-02-10; judged wrong by procran on 2013-02-12.
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The Cavs will not win the NBA championship in the 09/10 season ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nicolas on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-06-16; judged right by Jack on 2010-06-16.
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St Kilda will win the premiership in 2010 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Olyscott on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-09-16; judged wrong by mikeykaka on 2010-02-10.
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American president obama will screw up politically ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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chuck norris will happen ( 100% confidence )
Created by imNOTafob on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by vivaladam on 2010-02-10.
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there will be more disruptions on myki system ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by reymartfc on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-20; judged right by Phil on 2010-02-10.
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Sushi Monger this lunch ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by deaz on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by Olyscott on 2010-02-10.
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Marketing will become one of the most popular course to study ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Monec on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The world won't end in 2012 ( 100% confidence )
Created by al3xal3x on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by beriukay on 2010-02-18.
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TFU will be roooccckkkinnn on the W/E BBBBBLLAAAAHHHHHHHHHH ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by makemulababy on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-18; judged wrong by steph03 on 2010-02-10.
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Canada will win Olympic ice-hockey gold medal; points leader Sidney Crosby ( 95% confidence )
Created by harmonix on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-28; judged right by d403 on 2010-02-28.
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jimmy jam will come out of the closet. ( 90% confidence )
Created by dani on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged right by leanh on 2010-02-10.
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John Howard will slip in the shower 2morow and die ( 100% confidence )
Created by makemulababy on 2010-02-10; known on 2011-11-05; judged right by widz on 2010-02-10.
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Carey Mulligan will win Best Actress ( 60% confidence )
Created by wednesday on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-03-07; judged wrong by wednesday on 2010-03-09.
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2010 Grand Final will be Geelong vs. Western Bulldogs ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by harmonix on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-09-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-27.
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Spain will win the world cup 2010 ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by deaz on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Richmond Tigers will win the next 3 premierships in a row ( 100% confidence )
Created by kieran90 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by dani on 2010-02-10.
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LeBron will win MVP ( 90% confidence )
Created by widz on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-06-16; judged wrong by DianneD on 2010-02-10.
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my mum will walk in on me ( 4% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by YOUNGMULLAH on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by leanh on 2010-02-10.
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tupac is still alive ( 85% confidence )
Created by sammi on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by justinemaynard9 on 2010-02-10.
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penor ( 95% confidence )
Created by al3xal3x on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by arivera on 2010-02-10.
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Dwight Howard and Vince carter will lead Orlando Magic back to the NBA finals ( 55% confidence )
Created by akavc15 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-07-15; judged wrong by nicolas on 2010-02-10.
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pokemon ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by al3xal3x on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-17; judged right by geralis32 on 2010-02-10.
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Australia will beat West Indies 5-0 in the current one day series ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by harmonix on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-22; judged wrong by andrew on 2010-02-10.
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Le Anh Le will be working in st.kilda by 2012 ( 100% confidence )
Created by kieran90 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by dani on 2010-02-10.
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Collingwood will make the grand final this year ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jimbob7 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by geralis32 on 2010-02-10.
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a tree will fall on my face ( 1% confidence )
Created by YOUNGMULLAH on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by YOUNGMULLAH on 2010-02-10.
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pretty sure that dani is the greatest. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dani on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by cointelligence on 2010-02-28.
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Jeff Bridges will win an Oscar for Best Actor in 2010 ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mavmetropolis on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-03-07; judged right by mavmetropolis on 2010-03-08.
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Right after Avatar leaves cinemas, another movie with the title Avatar in it will be released ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by akavc15 on 2010-02-10.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.
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Prediction Book will be the next big thing to hit!!!!!!!!! ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rosy on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by widz on 2010-02-17.
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Bill Murray will die in Ghostbusters 3 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Miley Cyrus will fade out of the spotlight in 2 years with the cut from Hannah Montana ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.
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Posh spice, Victoria Beckham fashion label will hit an all time low in 2010 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-06-16; judged right by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10.
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Tiger Woods and Elin Nordegren will seperate within the year ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10.
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Katy Perry and Russel Brand will have a baby boy in October 2010 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Avatar will stay in the top 10 Box Office till March 2010 ( 80% confidence )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged right by mavmetropolis on 2010-02-10.
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Nicole Richie for a third baby in 2010 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-16.
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A new social networking site will overtake Facebook as the most used website by October 2010 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The world will not end in 2012 ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Khloe Kardashian is pregnant ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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I will predict that Gossip Girl will not last 2 more seasons on T.V ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by Nads on 2010-02-10.
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Avatar will win best picture at the academy awards. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-12-16; judged wrong by Phil on 2010-02-10.
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Brazil will win the world cup 2010 ( 90% confidence )
Created by taticorr on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-06-16; judged wrong by geralis32 on 2010-02-10.
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Melbourne Victory to win A-Legue season 2009-2010 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by rosy on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-01-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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People will start rolling their jeans up from the bottom ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged right by gracelouise on 2010-02-09.
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The Conservative Party will win a majority in the UK parliament, in the 2010 general election. ( 85% confidence )
Created by simontrigowhite on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-05-16; judged wrong by simontrigowhite on 2010-05-19.
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I will still identify as Theist in a year ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by MrHen on 2010-02-03; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by MrHen on 2011-01-01.
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The University of Kentucky Men's basketball team will not win the 2010 NCAA Division 1 Championship. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Jack on 2010-01-26; known on 2010-04-06; judged right by Jack on 2010-06-16.
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the bub will be a boy ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2010-01-25; known on 2010-03-29; judged right by Frank on 2010-03-29.
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I like smoked gouda ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by senile on 2010-01-21; known on 0139-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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I will get into Bishop's ( 90% confidence )
Created by BlackandRedStreaks on 2010-01-21; known on 2010-04-16; judged right by saralehman on 2010-04-01.
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Investling site will be live ( 70% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2010-01-19; known on 2010-01-20; judged right by Wes on 2010-01-20.
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I will post a blog post on anthropics within one week ( 70% confidence )
Created by KatjaGrace on 2010-01-15; known on 2010-01-22; judged wrong by KatjaGrace on 2010-01-26.
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The paper I'm reading about the implications of an infinite number of people in every situation in the universe will conclude that we can still be ethical ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KatjaGrace on 2010-01-15; known on 2010-01-17; judged right by KatjaGrace on 2010-01-16.
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KD is K D P/L ( 95% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2010-01-08; known on 2010-01-08; judged wrong by nomadphase on 2010-01-11.
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I get into MIT ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-03-14.
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I get into CalTech. ( 2% confidence )
Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-03-13.
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I get into Harvey Mudd ( 5% confidence )
Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-03-25.
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I get into Stanford ( 2% confidence )
Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-06-10.
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more than 4 chavs will get on my bus before I get off ( 65% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-30; known on 2009-12-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-31.
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I will finish my PhD degree within the next three years. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2009-12-30; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-09-27.
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I will track more than 4 hours of useful work before 6pm tomorrow ( 75% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-28; known on 2009-12-29; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-29.
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My visitors will not arrive before 12pm ( 70% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-27; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-28.
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I will be able to run 20km in under 2 hours by July 1st ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-26; known on 2010-07-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2010-07-02.
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Someone (likely a tall German) will have an Xbox plugged into the Trike TV before New Year's Day. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-12-22; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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Plan Deliver website will be available at its proper home before the Christmas break ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Wes on 2009-12-21; known on 2009-12-23; judged right by Wes on 2009-12-23.
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I will need 6 hours to implement the K feature 1895261 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-16; known on 2009-12-17; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-12-16.
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50% of Trike staff will be drunk @ the christmas party… ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-13; known on 2009-12-19; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-12-20.
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There will be no new PD clients till the end of the year :( ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-13; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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We will have K open to the 7 friendly dentists by the end of the week ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dgoodlad on 2009-12-13; known on 2009-12-18; judged wrong by dgoodlad on 2009-12-20.
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I will make it to the Saturday 2009 Dec 12th OBLW meetup. ( 60% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-12-12; known on 2009-12-12; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-12.
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The spot price of gold will be $1200/ounce or above on December 31, 2010. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2009-12-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2019-12-08.
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The weather will get hot and sunny again for the weekend (30+ degrees) ( 25% confidence )
Created by dgoodlad on 2009-12-06; known on 2009-12-12; judged wrong by dgoodlad on 2009-12-13.
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Tansel will be @ the doctor at least once this week ( 90% confidence )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-06; known on 2009-12-11; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-12-13.
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The 10 dentists will use Kando by the end of the week… ( 40% confidence )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-06; known on 2009-12-11; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-12-13.
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Zach was looking at Newark, DE because there is no second “Newark in New Jersey near the Pennsylvania border”. ( 99% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-12-05; known on 2009-12-06; judged right by olimay on 2009-12-06.
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I will graduate from college in May of next year. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jack on 2009-12-02; known on 2010-06-01; judged right by Jack on 2010-06-16.
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I will have saasu set up by end of Friday this week ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fionajohnston on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-05; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-12-22.