“[I]t's virtually impossible to imagine taxes on the wealthy [implicitly defined as either income > US$250k or income > US$1m in 2009 dollars] not having been increased substantially by the time Obama's four years in office are up.” —Nate Silver ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-17.

Moneyed interests and will become the increasingly dominant force in Iranian politics, while Ahmadinejad will lose influence and the mullahs will become slightly more influential. —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2011-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-27.

“[Peter] Schiff sees a multiyear recession ahead marked by rampant inflation, a steadily weakening dollar, soaring commodities prices, slumping U.S. stock indexes, and falling wages.” ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2011-01-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-10.

“NYT will not be owned by the same company 18 months from now.” —Michael Wolff ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-21.

“There will be no significant newspapers printed on newsprint in the US by 2012.” (By significant, he seems to mean major market with a traditionally wide circulation.) —Seth Godin ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

“Chrysler brand will be discontinued, Jeep & Dodge will remain” —Douglas McIntyre ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“Architectural Digest Magazine will fold” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“Gap will close Old Navy” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“Esquire magazine will fold” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“The Budget car rental brand will be eliminated in favor of Avis” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“The Obama administration will propose a Federal consumption tax, such as a VAT. “I don't think it will be very soon, but it will be within eight years' time.”" —Tyler Cowen ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2017-04-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-12.

“Technical analyst Robert Prechter on Monday said he sees the United States losing its top AAA credit rating by the end of 2010, as he stuck by a deeply bearish outlook on the U.S. economy and stock market.” ( 5% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“Regarding access to the Internet: “Here's a prediction: in five years, a UN convention will enshrine network access as a human right.”" —Cory Doctorow ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2014-05-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-05-31.

“We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem.” —Peter Diamandis ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.

“the Apple tablet will be a flop next year” —Scott Moritz ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-26.

“The airline industry, of course, will be toast inside of five years.” —James Howard Kunstler ( 10% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2014-06-10; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-25.

“The Mediterranean bluefin breeding population will disappear by 2012 under the current fishing regime.” —Sergi Tudela ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

“At least one serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 will be someone newly elected to his or her state's governorship in 2010.” —Nate Silver ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-03.

“The Internet will become overloaded, causing brownouts and then outright gridlock. From 2012, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy” —Ted Ritter ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-06-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-06.

“EY predicts that no five-sigma evidence of any Higgs boson will appear in the 2014 Review of Particle Physics.” ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-07-05.

“10 or more people will be killed on US soil, or on a flight to or from the US, during 2010 as the result of a deliberate attack by a party with a political goal, not overtly the act of any state” ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“10 startups i think will be acquired soon: evernote, posterous/tumblr, twitter, animoto, tweetdeck/seesmic, stardoll, etsy, apture. agree?” —Ouriel Odhayon ( 0% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2010-08-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-08-10.

“I've got to think this device [iPad] would be a flop. This concept is such a train wreck from start to finish that I don’t know where to begin.” —Michael Scalisi ( 0% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2010-12-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-26.

“I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years.” —Jason Kottke ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-08-07.

“Microsoft will no longer have the majority market share in 24 months” —Beth Lynn Eicher ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-07-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-07.

“Iran will have mastered the generation of energy-grade nuclear material by early 2011, and given up on development of nuclear bombs in favor of civilian nuclear energy.” —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-28.

“I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2% real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25%) down from the 3.5% to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years.” —Jeremy Grantham ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2016-03-07; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-08.

By 2020, MS's Bing will have 25% of the American search market (from 13% in 2010). ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

“By 2012, current venture capital- and privately-funded methods of DNA sequencing, independent of any additional “incremental improvements” will be made obsolete by the technology described in The Economist (October 25th – 31st 2008; US print edition, p.8 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

“By 2013 eBay will either (1) rename itself Paypal, or (2) spin Paypal out.” ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“By 2015 more internet requests will originate from mobile phones and other types of embedded devices than from desktop and laptop personal computers.” ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-21.

“By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow.” ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-01-05.

“Google Earth / Street View will become a video gaming platform, where users can play Grand Theft Auto-like games virtually in their own neighborhoods. Users will be able to upload GPS-coupled renderings of the insides of buildings. Users will allow other ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

“California state government will dissolve in default.” ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“By 2020, GE crops will be grown on 10 fold more acreage than they are today, will be widely accepted by consumers and will have clearly benefited the goals of sustainable agriculture” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

“The Iraqi Dinar will revalue, and reach a value of 3 Dinars per 1 U.S. dollar, or better, by November 6/2013. Currently, as of November 6/08, the exchange rate is 1176 Iraqi Dinars, per U.S. dollar.” ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-06.

“By the end of the 2016 Olympic Games, swimmer Michael Phelps will be convicted for doping at the 2008 Olympic Games.” ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.

“By 2011 a mother will have the entire genome sequence of her unborn child from her own blood.” —Jonathan M. Rothberg ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

“By 2015 the majority of people who make predictions on this site will have had their genomes sequenced.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” ( 17% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

“In 2010 more diesel passenger vehicles will be sold in the US than hybrids.” ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“The U.S. will not pull all of its troops out of Iraq until the 10 largest corporations in the U.S. use their influence to make it happen. I don't see this as a possibility until after Nov. 9, 2010 the next mid-term elections.” ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2010-11-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-09.

“Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

“Immortal mice by 2015” ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

“Turkey will join the European Union and become a model for a Democratic Islamic State and lead the way for advancing relations between the Islamic world and “Western World”” ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

“By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the “Second” or “New Renaissance.”” ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

“Within two generations, the Iranian people will become an anchor of freedom for the middle east.” ( 20% confidence; 10 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.

“There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“Within a decade Wal-Mart (WMT) shares cease to be listed on the NYSE as a result bankruptcy, being taken over/private, or being delisted by the exchange.” ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-31.

“Steve Jobs will be nominated for Presdident of the United States, by one of the two major political parties in 2012.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-06.

“By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer and mastectomies will have become almost obsolete” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.