Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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'Crows' will defeat 'Dockers' in Round 1 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Dockers' will defeat 'Crows' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-28; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Magpies' will defeat 'Bulldogs' in Round 1 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-28; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Bulldogs' will defeat 'Magpies' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Kangaroos' will defeat 'Power' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-28; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Power' will defeat 'Kangaroos' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Eagles' will defeat 'Lions' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Lions' will defeat 'Eagles' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-27; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Saints' will defeat 'Swans' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-27; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Swans' will defeat 'Saints' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Bombers' will defeat 'Cats' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Cats' will defeat 'Bombers' in Round 1 ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-26; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Blues' will defeat 'Tigers' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-25; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Tigers' will defeat 'Blues' in Round 1 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-25; judged wrong by akavc15 on 2010-03-24.
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'Hawks' will defeat 'Demons' in Round 1 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-27; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Demons' will defeat 'Hawks' in Round 1 ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-27; judged wrong by rennie on 2010-03-24.
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Purple eye shadow is going to be HOT this season! ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-03-15; known on 2010-06-21; judged right by melissasajeh on 2010-04-20.
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Velvet will make a comeback ( 60% confidence )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-03-15; known on 2010-09-15; judged right by Angus on 2010-03-25.
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Gareth Pugh will take over at McQueen. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-03-15; known on 2011-03-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-03-18.
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Dogs will win the AFL flag this year ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mktg2010 on 2010-03-14; known on 2010-09-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-26.
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i will leave work by 1 o'clock to go eat lunch ( 51% confidence )
Created by ledflyd on 2010-03-09; known on 2010-03-09; judged right by ledflyd on 2010-03-09.
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Melbourne Victory will win the A league championship ( 80% confidence )
Created by guru on 2010-03-09; known on 2010-03-21; judged right by akavc15 on 2010-03-16.
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chris lee will leave the class to take a phone call in the next 10 minutes.. again. ( 90% confidence )
Created by mark.p on 2010-03-09; known on 2010-03-09; judged right by mark.p on 2010-03-09.
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Roxanne Parlour's 3rd Birthday this friday night will be messy. ( 99% confidence )
Created by mark.p on 2010-03-08; known on 2010-03-13; judged right by mark.p on 2010-03-14.
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I will log onto prediction book again tomorrow ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ledflyd on 2010-03-08; known on 2010-03-09; judged right by ledflyd on 2010-03-09.
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Twitter will disappear by the end of the year. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by DianneD on 2010-03-03; known on 2010-03-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-01-21.
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Human seer Yudkovsky will have a revelation about friendly AI. Yudkovsky will keep it to himself. ( 76% confidence )
Created by cointelligence on 2010-03-01; known on 2011-03-01; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2010-03-08.
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Sky Burial in the WA ( 86% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by cointelligence on 2010-03-01; known on 2010-03-07; judged right by cointelligence on 2010-03-03.
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Cointelligence will get bored and quit ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by cointelligence on 2010-03-01; known on 2010-03-08; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Lara Bingle and Michael Clarke will split up in the next three months ( 100% confidence )
Created by d403 on 2010-03-01; known on 2010-06-01; judged right by harmonix on 2010-03-16.
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Spencer Tunick will be charged with mass-scale indecent exposure ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Barack Obama will be shot by American white-supremist extremists within the next two weeks ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-14; judged wrong by Kyrisch on 2010-03-08.
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The Australian Interest rate will increase to 4.5% by the end of 2010. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2011-01-05; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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Brad Pitt will come out of the closet. ( 60% confidence )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-07; judged wrong by Jack on 2010-03-10.
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If Australia win the Ashes back, Ricky ponting will retire from all forms of the game. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2011-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-09.
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Peter Garret will split from Labour to form another political party within the next six months. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-01.
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7th of march will be the best day ever ( 90% confidence )
Created by tiffany on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-08; judged wrong by guru on 2010-03-09.
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Stefan Pernar will not appear out of his own navel ( 99% confidence )
Created by cointelligence on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-01; judged right by cointelligence on 2010-03-01.
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FlashFoward will be renewed for a second season ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by MrHen on 2010-02-23; known on 2010-07-16; judged wrong by MrHen on 2010-09-23.
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Fringe will be renewed for a third season ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by MrHen on 2010-02-23; known on 2010-09-16; judged right by gwern on 2010-09-16.
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The Movie Dear John will be this years The Notebook ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by maash on 2010-02-23; known on 2010-07-29; judged wrong by poke on 2010-05-06.
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The Hon Tony Abbott MHR will never be the PM ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by thechadisgreat on 2010-02-23; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by mad on 2015-01-07.
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Lot of Australian cricket players will decide to play in this season's Indian Premier League (IPL) ( 97% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by thechadisgreat on 2010-02-23; known on 2010-03-12; judged right by mktg2010 on 2010-03-14.
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foul words such as “fuck, shit, whore” will be used in this site (u r so ful o' bull crap) ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by chacha22 on 2010-02-23; known on 2010-02-23; judged right by chacha22 on 2010-02-23.
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the wind in melbourne will cause damage to properties and injure many ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by reymartfc on 2010-02-21; known on 2010-02-21; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Radiopaedia will reach 3 million pageviews by 15th June 2010 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Frank on 2010-02-18; known on 2010-06-15; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-06-16.
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Replacing the PSU on my gaming machine will fix all the problems I've been suffering for over a year. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by beriukay on 2010-02-18; known on 2010-02-25; judged right by beriukay on 2010-02-25.
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I think that this website will become extremely popular within 3 months. ( 100% confidence )
Created by starman on 2010-02-17; known on 2010-05-17; judged wrong by reymartfc on 2010-02-21.
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Australia will not compete in the 2010 Commonwealth games ( 60% confidence )
Created by jimbob7 on 2010-02-17; known on 2010-02-17; judged wrong by Chris31 on 2010-03-20.
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andrew stellas will not hit the wall from one side of the room with a paper aeroplane on the full ( 87% confidence )
Created by jay_pitman on 2010-02-16; known on 2010-02-16; judged right by jay_pitman on 2010-02-16.
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Australia Vs Italy in World Cup Final ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by skinnyasianbitch on 2010-02-15; known on 2010-07-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Prediction book will get some desperately needed moderation. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack on 2010-02-15; known on 2010-03-15; judged wrong by al3xal3x on 2010-03-18.
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Created by magic on 2010-02-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The US will come in the top 5 in total number gold medals won at the 2010 Winter Olympics ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by AJF on 2010-02-12; known on 2010-02-28; judged right by d403 on 2010-03-01.
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Goncalo Amaral will lose his appeal against the banning of his book “The Truth About The Lie” http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8509563.stm ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by simontrigowhite on 2010-02-11; known on 2010-02-18; judged right by simontrigowhite on 2010-02-19.
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men will continue to forget about valentine's day ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by vivaladam on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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whaling aint gonna be prohibited because japanese people will build a large aquarium for them whales to breed ( 1% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by reymartfc on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Melmel will get banned from prediction book by the end of the class ( 99% confidence )
Created by Olyscott on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by Phil on 2010-02-10.
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is going to have sex with herself cos of phil ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Australia will change drinking age to 21 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kassey on 2010-02-10; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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Australia will win 5-0 against west indies ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by imNOTafob on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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japanese people will be replaced by their own robots ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by reymartfc on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by reymartfc on 2010-03-03.
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i will have sex tonight ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-11; judged wrong by Phil on 2010-02-10.
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Matthew Stokes will not learn from his mistake ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by imNOTafob on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by vivaladam on 2010-02-10.
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Australia vs Greece 2010 World Cup Final ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by christian on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-07-16; judged right by mikeykaka on 2010-02-10.
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The world won't end in 2012, unless Chuck Norris says so ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Phil on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by nicolas on 2010-02-10.
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Asian gangs in Melbourne will not cause trouble this weekend ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-17; judged right by Budha on 2010-02-22.
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i will be a millionaire ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mikeykaka on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by Alyssa.P on 2010-02-10.
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Micheal Jackson is pulling a Tupac ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2013-02-10; judged wrong by procran on 2013-02-12.
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The Cavs will not win the NBA championship in the 09/10 season ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nicolas on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-06-16; judged right by Jack on 2010-06-16.
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St Kilda will win the premiership in 2010 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Olyscott on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-09-16; judged wrong by mikeykaka on 2010-02-10.
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American president obama will screw up politically ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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chuck norris will happen ( 100% confidence )
Created by imNOTafob on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by vivaladam on 2010-02-10.
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there will be more disruptions on myki system ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by reymartfc on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-20; judged right by Phil on 2010-02-10.
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Sushi Monger this lunch ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by deaz on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by Olyscott on 2010-02-10.
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Marketing will become one of the most popular course to study ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Monec on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The world won't end in 2012 ( 100% confidence )
Created by al3xal3x on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by beriukay on 2010-02-18.
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TFU will be roooccckkkinnn on the W/E BBBBBLLAAAAHHHHHHHHHH ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by makemulababy on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-18; judged wrong by steph03 on 2010-02-10.
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Canada will win Olympic ice-hockey gold medal; points leader Sidney Crosby ( 95% confidence )
Created by harmonix on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-28; judged right by d403 on 2010-02-28.
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jimmy jam will come out of the closet. ( 90% confidence )
Created by dani on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged right by leanh on 2010-02-10.
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John Howard will slip in the shower 2morow and die ( 100% confidence )
Created by makemulababy on 2010-02-10; known on 2011-11-05; judged right by widz on 2010-02-10.
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Carey Mulligan will win Best Actress ( 60% confidence )
Created by wednesday on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-03-07; judged wrong by wednesday on 2010-03-09.
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2010 Grand Final will be Geelong vs. Western Bulldogs ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by harmonix on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-09-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-27.
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Spain will win the world cup 2010 ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by deaz on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Richmond Tigers will win the next 3 premierships in a row ( 100% confidence )
Created by kieran90 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by dani on 2010-02-10.
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LeBron will win MVP ( 90% confidence )
Created by widz on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-06-16; judged wrong by DianneD on 2010-02-10.
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my mum will walk in on me ( 4% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by YOUNGMULLAH on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by leanh on 2010-02-10.
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tupac is still alive ( 85% confidence )
Created by sammi on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by justinemaynard9 on 2010-02-10.
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penor ( 95% confidence )
Created by al3xal3x on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by arivera on 2010-02-10.
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Dwight Howard and Vince carter will lead Orlando Magic back to the NBA finals ( 55% confidence )
Created by akavc15 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-07-15; judged wrong by nicolas on 2010-02-10.
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pokemon ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by al3xal3x on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-17; judged right by geralis32 on 2010-02-10.
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Australia will beat West Indies 5-0 in the current one day series ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by harmonix on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-22; judged wrong by andrew on 2010-02-10.
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Le Anh Le will be working in st.kilda by 2012 ( 100% confidence )
Created by kieran90 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by dani on 2010-02-10.
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Collingwood will make the grand final this year ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jimbob7 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by geralis32 on 2010-02-10.
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a tree will fall on my face ( 1% confidence )
Created by YOUNGMULLAH on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by YOUNGMULLAH on 2010-02-10.
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pretty sure that dani is the greatest. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dani on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by cointelligence on 2010-02-28.
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Jeff Bridges will win an Oscar for Best Actor in 2010 ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mavmetropolis on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-03-07; judged right by mavmetropolis on 2010-03-08.
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Right after Avatar leaves cinemas, another movie with the title Avatar in it will be released ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by akavc15 on 2010-02-10.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.