PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11653	16240	16689	17377	31095	7982	101036

i will be able to stand on a surf board for more than 5 sec after this weekend ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tom on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-06; judged right by Tom on 2009-12-06.

Kando will be ready (in respect to the features) to get the 10 dentists on ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tom on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by Tom on 2009-12-06.

We'll find a human-based way to fix integration with MYOB or opt for a different accounting solution. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by captainpete on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-30; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.

I will go to the gym every day this week (Mon-Fri) ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dgoodlad on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-05; judged wrong by dgoodlad on 2009-12-05.

The DSL modem will arrive today ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dgoodlad on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-11-30; judged wrong by dgoodlad on 2009-11-30.

The “LessWrong Singularity article” will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/ ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Pavitra on 2009-11-25; known on 2010-03-15; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2010-03-17.

Integration with a certain financial package will cause pain on K by the end of next week ( 80% confidence )

Created by blorh on 2009-11-25; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by blorh on 2009-12-02.

PlanDeliver retail site content will be finished by the end of the week ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Wes on 2009-11-24; known on 2009-11-27; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-11-29.

I will finish planning lessons before I go to bed ( 90% confidence )

Created by brownguy22 on 2009-11-23; known on 2009-11-23; judged right by brownguy22 on 2009-11-23.

I will have automated the rollout of a ruby site by the end of the week. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jon on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-27; judged wrong by jon on 2009-11-27.

Our TV will be set up (connected to a server, some kind of status report) til the end of the week ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tom on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-28; judged right by Tom on 2009-11-29.

All actions on PD (allocation related) will be handled in JS only ( 75% confidence )

Created by Tom on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-24; judged right by Tom on 2009-11-25.

Cannabis will be legalized throughout the USA. ( 78% confidence )

Created by said on 2009-11-18; known on 2037-08-31; judged wrong by COng on 2010-02-10.

saints win Superbowl ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by hoodoo2 on 2009-11-18; known on 2010-02-07; judged right by hoodoo2 on 2010-02-09.

Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Citizen553 on 2009-11-18; known on 2159-11-18; judged unknown by Jack on 2010-01-26.

Total deaths from the swine flu this year will be less than the deaths from normal seasonal flu. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by stupidrobots on 2009-11-17; known on 2010-03-16; judged wrong by dakyne on 2009-12-09.

Absolutely nothing apocalyptic will happen in the year 2012. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by thephilosiraptor on 2009-11-17; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.

I will drink at least 40 different beers before the end of the year ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by ledflyd on 2010-01-01.

There will be no heat in my lab for at least half the days over the next week and a half ( 65% confidence )

Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-11-25; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2009-11-25.

I will eat Thanksgiving dinner at my Aunt's house AND will not ingest any Turkey. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-11-26; judged right by ledflyd on 2009-11-27.

During the next two weeks, at least half of my experimental data will be unusable for our presentation on Dec. 2, 2009. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-11-27; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2009-11-28.

I will get frustrated with at least one of my co-workers today ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-11-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2009-11-16.

My mother or father will call me today. ( 20% confidence )

Created by popojala on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged wrong by popojala on 2009-11-15.

I won't get the swine flu during this year. ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by popojala on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Paddy will give me or have had prepared a check payable to me by the end of today. ( 52% confidence )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-16.

Oliver will share a meal, or, while consuming a meal, company with both Zach and Ruchi on at least two occasions before his birthday. ( 95% confidence )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-06; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-05.

I will be in New York City by noon today. ( 80% confidence )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-14.

I will order food from a restaurant with the word “Chinese” somewhere on its printed menu no fewer than 3 times before the end of this year. ( 80% confidence )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2010-01-01.

I will weigh less than 170 lbs on my birthday and in my birthday suit. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-06; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-06.

I'll fall asleep before 5AM today. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-14.

I will go to bed (and fall asleep) before 5AM every day next week, which I'll say starts Sunday. ( 20% confidence )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-21; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-26.

I will write and publish one complete short story on the internet (public internet) before my birthday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-06; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-06.

I will get at least one paid freelance design or programming job in the next two weeks. ( 20% confidence )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-28; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-05.

Claire and I will go to the Met Museum of Art sometime on 2009-11-20. ( 20% confidence )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-21; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-26.

I'll make it on time (within 7 minutes of 15:00 UTC, by Sprint Mobile network time) to the OB/LW NYC meetup on 2009-11-14. ( 50% confidence )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-14.

I'll publish at least 15 (different) posts on False Symmetry before my birthday. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-06; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-06.

I'll see Eric Li in person on two separate days before the end of November. ( 30% confidence )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-01; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-01.

I won't directly pay any doctor, doctor's office, or hospital any amount of money for medical services rendered to me for the rest of this year. ( 80% confidence )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2010-01-01.

I'll make at least $500 from now until the rest of the year. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by olimay on 2010-01-01.

All my immediate family members will be either alive or have had their brains successfully cryopreserved at the beginning of 2011. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2011-01-01.

LW Meetup Locator's map and input form functionality will functioning and in production by the end of November. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-01; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-01.

My Sony VAIO laptop will still be functional enough to watch/listen to streamed YouTube videos at the end of 2010, with no part upgrades costing > $15. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2011-01-01.

By 2010-02-01 Oliver will have paid the minimum monthly amount requested as indicated on the Student Loan Corporation statements for 2010-Jan using his own, unborrowed funds. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by olimay on 2010-02-01.

By 2010-05-01, Oliver will have paid rent for a dwelling place not owned by an immediate family member, grandparent, or first cousin for a period beginning after 2009-11-14, duration longer than 28 days. ( 50% confidence )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-05-01; judged wrong by olimay on 2010-05-01.

I will attend Reed College ( 78% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by philology on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-05-01; judged wrong by philology on 2010-05-02.

Iran's current regime will continue its nuclear program — or be overthrown — rather than accept the current (Oct 2009) offer to have nuclear materials processed elsewhere (such as Russia). ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by robo45h on 2009-11-13; known on 2010-11-13; judged right by gwern on 2010-11-13.

CITCON Europe 2010 will happen in Prague ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by elefevre on 2009-11-12; known on 2010-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 21% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.

Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 36% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2012-12-16.

combined iphone app sales for November > 250 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Frank on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-12-07; judged right by Frank on 2009-12-07.

Bell/Carry sites will be live by Friday. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Matt on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-11-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-11-14.

DC practices management improvement job will be complete by Friday ( 60% confidence )

Created by Matt on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-11-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-11-14.

montgomery will defeat petterb in both of their dailygammon.com error rate tournament matches. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by refragable on 2009-10-28; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by refragable on 2010-01-01.

I will bill 20+ hours the first week of November, 2009. ( 30% confidence )

Created by refragable on 2009-10-28; known on 2009-11-08; judged wrong by refragable on 2009-11-08.

I will bill 15+ hours the week of 2009-10-25 to 2009-10-31. ( 50% confidence )

Created by refragable on 2009-10-28; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by refragable on 2009-11-01.

I will have sql backups on all servers using new backup script by end of week. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jon on 2009-10-27; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by jon on 2009-10-30.

The Radiopaedia content cleanup will be finished by the end of the week ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Wes on 2009-10-26; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by Wes on 2009-11-03.

Someone will explain, in this prediction perhaps, how there are 623 known predictions in the statistics, but only 700 predictions sitewide, and there are way more than 100 unknown predictions. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-23; known on 2009-11-06; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-06.

Notre Dame will beat BC ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by josephlawler on 2009-10-22; known on 2009-10-24; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

The current (10/21/09) predictionbook UI, with the right/wrong/unknown above the certainty/comments section, will still be sufficiently similar (and similarly bad) by 12/01/2009 that people mistakenly judging predictions will still happen at least three t ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-22; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by NineteenHalves on 2009-12-03.

Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-21; known on 3009-10-21.

The Portland Free Geek council meeting will not finish before 9:00pm tonight. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21; known on 2009-10-22; judged right by Martin Chase on 2009-10-22.

We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-20; known on 2010-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-02.

My 8 month old son will take a nap of at least 30 minutes starting in the next 4 hours. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by taiyo on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-20; judged right by taiyo on 2009-10-20.

The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Martin and/or Shana will get sick enough to notice (upset stomach) from the Hedgehog mushroom Shana found. ( 14% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-22; judged wrong by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21.

Martin and/or Shana will get sick enough to have to go to the doctor from eating the hedgehog mushroom Shana found. ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-22; judged wrong by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21.

The kittens will still have giardia. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-10.

The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

If the Democratic Health Reform plan passes, private, group insurance premiums will increase more than 30% by 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by freyley on 2015-10-22.

There will be a public option in the upcoming health reform ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2010-07-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.

I will spend most of Friday (20%t) on PBook ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Glenn on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-11-01.

The mind body problem will not be solved. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tobias_M on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-19; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-20.

There will be more than 1000 PB predictions before Fri. Oct. 23, 2009. There are ~ 650 @ 6PM PDT, Sun. Oct. 18. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-10-23.

Radiopaedia work will be finalised (for now) by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )

Created by Wes on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-26; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-10-26.

Twitter.com is currently ranked 13 on Alexa. On October 31 at 7pm PST it will be ranked 13 or higher. (I've done nothing to investigate how rankings have been changing or how often.) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ektimo on 2009-10-18; known on 2009-10-31; judged wrong by ektimo on 2009-11-03.

I will pass my Mods ( 99% confidence )

Created by Larks on 2009-10-18; known on 2010-07-16; judged right by Larks on 2010-07-22.

I will become the Maths & Philosophy MURC representative at the next MURC meeting ( 95% confidence )

Created by Larks on 2009-10-18; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by Larks on 2009-10-23.

I will finish my problem sheets on Calculous of One Variable, do the pre-reading for Logic and Reasoning and Proofs, and at least one of the non-compulsary pure questions, by the end of today. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Larks on 2009-10-18; known on 2009-10-19; judged wrong by Larks on 2009-10-19.

Orchard Supply and Hardware will have a fire extinguisher which they can sell us. ( 95% confidence )

Created by MBlume on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-10-18; judged right by MBlume on 2009-10-18.

By Nov. 01, 2009, PB will stop silently truncating long prediction descriptions. Currently, there is no user feedback or indication that there is a length limit. The last part of the description just disappears after you subm ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-11-01.

A significant number of people will comment here that they modify initial self-predictions of greater than 50% upwards to account for anticipation of putting extra effort into it because it was judged more likely than not. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by anonym on 2010-01-01.

Prediction Book will not have eliminated its performance problems by Nov. 1, 2009. Many page requests will still take more than 4 seconds to load. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-01.

Chicago Bears will make playoffs. ( 57% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Philo on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-04; judged wrong by Philo on 2010-01-04.

Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-12-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-21.

Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.

This website's statistics will show that people pick percentages with a '2' in them anomalously often- presumably due to priming from the 'my 2 cents' ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Larks on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-16; judged wrong by Larks on 2010-01-16.

No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.

Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 8% confidence; 28 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.

In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 26% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.

In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 46% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2060-12-31.

When I turn on my brother's just upgraded macbook, it'll work. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-10-17; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-17.

I will still be alive in 2200, meaning that the software that I am — or some modification of it — will still be running then. ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2200-01-01.

I will have read all the science fiction works of Iain M. Banks (those published with 'M.' in both UK and USA) by end of 2009. ( 80% confidence )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by anonym on 2010-01-01.

I will not be diagnosed with cancer before the age of 45. ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2019-01-01.

I will still be at my current job on Nov. 17, 2009. ( 96% confidence )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-17; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-15.

There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.

Statistics

Recent Predictions