PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

“Many types of cancer will be treated effectively with biofeedback coupled with imaging techniques, such as fMRI.” ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.

“By 2015, standardized tests for high school students in every state of the United States will directly evaluate students' understanding of the differences between scientific laws, scientific theories and the kinds of things often called theories outside ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01.

“If the next president of the USA will be a democrat and/or a female, the US's anual GPD growth, major Wall Street share indices (Dow Jones, NASDAQ comp.) by the end of the term in 2012 will be higher, unemployment rate lower than now. The death toll of U ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.

“The International Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report will conclude it is likely, or more than likely, that human-caused global warming has increased hurricane intensity in the 1995-2005 time period.” ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2015-12-31.

Anti-obesity drug Qnexa will be denied FDA approval (or delayed). ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by dakyne on 2010-07-30; known on 2010-10-28; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-29.

“In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.” ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2101-12-31.

“I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2101-12-31.

“The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100.” ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

“A March 2004 article stated: "More than 3.5 billion years after nature transformed non-living matter into living things, populating Earth with a cornucopia of animals and plants, scientists say they are finally ready to try their hand at creating life. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-12-31.

“I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 d ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-12-31.

“The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context.” ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in 5 days.

“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.

“That by 2020 it will be possible and desirable for urban houses to have a room in the house designed for, and dedicated to, producing a household's entire water supply. This will be achievable through condensation (a terarium effect) and using solar pane ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

“US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the “banking book” be marked to market before 2024.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in 4 days.

“By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the “faxing” (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like.” ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

“By 2020, 75% of all incremental new generation will come from renewable/sustainable energy in the U.S.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.

“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01.

“"Brooke Shields will be be a recipeint of the Kennedy Center Honors for her lifetime contributions to American culture through the performing arts, within the next fifteen years."” ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

“Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.” ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2203-01-01.

“There will be only three significant currencies used in the world by 2063. More than 95 % of the countries in the world will use one of them.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2063-01-01.

“One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.” ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2103-01-01.

“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.” ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2085-01-01.

“By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.” ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2060-01-01.

“By 2100 racism will no longer be a significant phenomenon in most countries of the world.” ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

“By 2025, at least 25 of the 30 stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be dropped from the index and replaced with other companies.” ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in 5 days.

“Within 100 years the citizens and companies of a large and prosperous country in excess of 100 million people will no longer pay taxes of any kind.” ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2103-01-01.

“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.” ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in 5 days.

“Barring an unexpected decline in human numbers from current levels, biodiversity will not reverse its downward trend, air and water pollution will not reverse their increasing trends,(all according to World Resources Institute data) and the WHO will not ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Grognor on 2014-06-15.

“By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or “field propulsion-type” aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.” ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.” ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir. ( 54% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.

“Major online internet useage research firms will record that over 3 billion people in 2025 managed their incoming and outgoing digital information using a graphical user interface based on Quadrant Theory – as described in Marshall McLuhan's “Tetrad” mod ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-12-31.

“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.

“By 2070, at least six countries will have officially implemented a 4-day working week.” ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2070-01-01.

“By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.” ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

“By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.” ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.” ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2052-01-01; judged unknown by Traubert on 2010-08-11.

“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.

“By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.” ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

“By 2020, in real or artificial life, sustainable evolutionary progress in a genetically closed system will not have been demonstrated.” ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.

“By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2030-01-01.

“That by 2024 “artificial” life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study.” ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2024-01-01.

“Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.” ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

“By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel – at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

“By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States.” ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction.” ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.” ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

“By 2050 no synthetic computer nor machine intelligence will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious).” ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

“The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event.” ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

“The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-12-07.

“Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-01.

“By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.” ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-01-31; judged right by amadeu on 2019-04-30.

“In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.” ( 69% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2108-12-31.

“Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees.” ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-09-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-08.

“The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-05.

By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known in 5 days.

“By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government.” ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known in 5 days.

“Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy.” ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2015-05-28.

“By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.” ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known in 5 days.

“In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation.” ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2022-12-31.

“By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature.” ( 81% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.

“At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.” ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2150-01-01.

“By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks.” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as “the world leader in software development” or words to that effect.” ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2029 no computer – or “machine intelligence” – will have passed the Turing Test. ( 48% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2029-01-01.

Phrack issue #67 will not be released August 2010. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2010-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-09-01.

I will sign up for cryonics by December 31st 2010 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Larks on 2010-07-22; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by Larks on 2011-01-01.

Bank of England Base rate will be 1% or less on 31 December 2010 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by koenfucius on 2010-07-21; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by koenfucius on 2010-12-31.

Dow jones breaking through 12000 before end july ( 30% confidence )

Created by Conbruce on 2010-07-18; known on 2010-07-31; judged wrong by koenfucius on 2010-07-21.

Lebron to play for the New York Knicks in the 2010-2011 season. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Jack on 2010-07-07; known on 2010-07-09; judged wrong by Jack on 2010-07-16.

Will this prediction have an average prediction of less than 50%? (The only way to be right is if more people predict the opposite of you) ( 49% confidence; 31 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JFE on 2010-07-02; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JFE on 2011-01-06.

Julia Gillard will win the next federal election. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Frank on 2010-06-27; known on 2011-01-16; judged right by Frank on 2010-09-16.

r.org traffic will start to increase again in july 2010 ( 72% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Frank on 2010-06-27; known on 2010-08-16; judged right by Frank on 2010-08-16.

South Africa will beat France ( 55% confidence )

Created by vhistory on 2010-06-22; known on 2010-06-22; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Mexico and Uruguay will tie. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by vhistory on 2010-06-22; known on 2010-06-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

I predict Stanley McChrystal will keep his job until at least July 22. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by vhistory on 2010-06-22; known on 2010-07-22; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Lakers will win NBA Finals ( 85% confidence )

Created by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-19; known on 2010-06-19; judged right by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-19.

The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.

Another company will come out with a game console next generation thats not Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-26.

The price of gold will exceed $1300 USD / oz at some point in the next 6 months. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2010-12-16; judged right by dakyne on 2010-09-27.

At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 22% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.

Another beloved celebrity will die before the year is over ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.

Sam Stosur will win the French Open! ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by wednesday on 2010-06-03; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by wednesday on 2010-06-06.

Australia will at least make the quarter finals of the 2010 World Cup ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Pie4Life on 2010-06-01; known on 2010-06-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Richmond will win the 2010 AFL wooden spoon ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Pie4Life on 2010-06-01; known on 2010-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-11.

Collingwood will finish top 4 ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Pie4Life on 2010-06-01; known on 2010-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-09-11.

the chick from big is not the blond chick from weeds ( 70% confidence )

Created by Frank on 2010-05-30; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-05-30.

Will crack 100,000 visits in June ( 60% confidence )

Created by Frank on 2010-05-29; known on 2010-07-16; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-07-16.

PredictionBook will be successful in years to come ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-05-25; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-06.

reach 600 facebook fans by June 25th ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Frank on 2010-05-17; known on 2010-06-26; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-06-26.

max brenner will make the best waflees today ( 100% confidence )

Created by f2 on 2010-05-12; known on 2010-05-12; judged right by f2 on 2010-05-12.

I predict Collingwood will win the AFL Grand final in 2010. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dusty.brouwer on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-09-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-26.

California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 18 comments )

Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by dakyne on 2010-11-03.

The spot price of silver will be $20/ounce or higher on December 31, 2010. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.

Arena Pharmaceuticals' anti-obesity drug Lorcaserin will be FDA-approved by December 31, 2010. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.