PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Recent Predictions

[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 65 ( 50% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 60 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 55 ( 75% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 50 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 45 ( 85% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 40 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly positive ( 1% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately positive ( 4% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly positive ( 15% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion ( 25% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly negative ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately negative ( 15% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly negative ( 10% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal – my weight in kg is] <100 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal – my weight in kg is] <95 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal – my weight in kg is] <90 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal – my weight in kg is] <85 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal – my weight in kg is] <80 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal – my weight in kg is] <75 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
I will finish 8 or more books this year ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2020-01-03.
The African Continental Free Trade Agreement has 22 ratifications or more. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
I will still be using NixOS in three months ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-01.
Top 10 by market cap coins on CMC will have more than one stable coin ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Nve on 2018-12-29; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2018-12-28). ( 33% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-28; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-04.
The B's will be at the meeting. ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-27; known on 2018-12-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-27.
The gift card belongs to my sister. ( 90% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-26; known on 2018-12-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-27.
Personal – I buy a coat before the 1st of January 2019. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
Politics, US – U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports >=8000 “Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions” for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Labour Party. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-07-03.
Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Conservative Party. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK revokes Article 50. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK and European Council agree to extend the Article 50 deadline. ( 46% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
I will have at least one more math paper published before the end of 2019. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-12-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
[Gaydar] Saoirse Ronan (Saoirse Una Ronan) comes out as queer ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2018-12-21; known on 2068-12-22.
Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term) ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Stommelen on 2018-12-21; known on 2024-03-17.
jessicata doesn't think GiveWell is a scam ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-12-20; known on 2018-12-20; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-12-20.
Bryce Harper will sign a contract with minimum length of 10 years. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-20; known on 2019-02-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2018-12-21). ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-19; known on 2018-12-28; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-28.
<5 personnes restant au moins 5 min entre 17h30 et 18h50 ( 73% confidence )

Created by leo_grint on 2018-12-18; known on 2018-12-19; judged right by leo_grint on 2018-12-18.
Gynae malignancy 023354 ( 80% confidence )

Created by bridgid.connolly@gmail.com on 2018-12-14; known on 2018-12-28.
<redacted> I need to maintain a persistent, bilateral connexion to the javascript side, maintain global state somewhere, and have both sides talk together with JSON. Is there an Haskell lib for that? <redacted> will choose websockets tech for this. ( 40% confidence )

Created by dmwit on 2018-12-12; known on 2018-12-20; judged wrong by dmwit on 2018-12-19.
Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )

Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
Doomslayer from Doom is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by Medea on 2020-03-13.
Sans from Undertale is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-10-05.
Steve from Minecraft is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-15; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-08-18.
fb will still ban erotext in 3 months ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Somni on 2018-12-09; known on 2019-03-09.
I will join the SB hackathon ( 80% confidence )

Created by Noa Nabeshima on 2018-12-09; known on 2019-01-30; judged right by Noa Nabeshima on 2020-05-07.
Politics – North Korea conducts a nuclear test before 1 January 2020. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
Before 1 August 2019, Facebook announces that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO. Leave of a absence counts. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.
Personal, Productivity – I do French practice every day between 2018-12-10 and 2018-12-16 inclusive ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2018-12-17; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
Less than 10 deaths in the gilet jaunes manifestation today ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by leo_grint on 2018-12-08; known on 2018-12-09; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-15.
The Telecommunications and Other Legislation Amendment (Assistance and Access) Act 2018 will cause high profile services such as AWS or WhatsApp to be withdrawn from the Australian market within 2 years ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by sjy on 2018-12-05; known on 2020-12-04; judged wrong by sjy on 2020-12-06.
Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2019-03-04.
Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 100 years. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2118-12-31.
Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 30 years. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2048-12-31.
Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 10 years. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2028-12-31.
Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2023-12-31.
The RTX 2080 Ti will see an official price reduction (MSRP) of at least 300$ before the end of 2019. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2020-01-01.
Personal, Productivity – I do at least an hour of work on my predictor before the end of 2018-12-02 UTC. ( 75% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-02; known on 2018-12-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-01; known on 2023-12-01.
By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-12-01; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-01.
My biomanufacturing partner will have a job within a month ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by absurdseagull on 2018-12-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by absurdseagull on 2019-01-02.
My partner will get ready in the next hour to collaborate with my friend ( 70% confidence )

Created by absurdseagull on 2018-12-01; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by absurdseagull on 2018-12-01.
i will pass sra 311 ( 97% confidence )

Created by jmcglade on 2018-12-01; known on 2018-12-14.
#kocherga will get a CEA grant ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by crabman on 2018-11-30; known on 2100-12-21; judged unknown by crabman on 2018-12-29.
Bright Funds will no longer exist as a coherent entity when I look it up. ( 70% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2018-11-28; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-11-28.
Econ -The Bank of England's Bank Rate on 1 April 2019 is between 0.26% and 0.5% inclusive. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-04-15.
Econ – The yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries inverts before 2019, as defined as the former having a higher figure in the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate on any one day prior to then. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
Econ – The percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018 is between 2.3% and 2.5% inclusive. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-01-31; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
Personal, Productivity – I spent at least three hours working on ML projects before the end of 2018-11-24 UTC. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2018-11-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-11-28.
ronit and somni will coordinate next week ( 20% confidence )

Created by Somni on 2018-11-24; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Somni on 2018-12-01.
Emergent Ventures will provide a grant to Kernel (my project) ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by bendini on 2018-11-22; known on 2019-02-19; judged wrong by bendini on 2019-03-26.
Personal, Productivity – I have a model that appears to adequately identify potential spam user signups suitable for some choice of action before 2019-01-01. ( 55% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
Econ – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.7 or higher. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
Econ – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.6 or lower. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
Econ – The closing spot price for an ounce of gold against the US dollar on 28 December 2018 is between $1200 and $1250. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2018-12-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-30.
Personal, Accounts – My Money Dashboard totals are below -£2000 at the start of 2019-01-04. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-23.
Personal, Accounts – My Money Dashboard totals are below -£1000 at the start of 2019-01-04. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
ronit and somni will coordinate next week ( 25% confidence )

Created by Somni on 2018-11-17; known on 2018-11-24; judged wrong by Somni on 2018-11-24.
L will be working as an irl sexworker three months from now ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Somni on 2018-11-16; known on 2019-02-16; judged wrong by Somni on 2019-02-19.
In de komende theaterlessen zullen we een les hebben waarbij we gebruik maken van maskers of clownsneuzen ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by marianne on 2018-11-13; known on 2019-01-16; judged right by marianne on 2018-12-30.
US will have universal health care system by 2026 ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2026-12-31.
US will have universal health care system by 2022 ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-12-20.
[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 20 seconds ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 40 seconds ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 10 seconds ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 1 minute and 26 seconds (the time it ran out in 2017) ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 3 minutes ( 87% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
By 1/1/2022 GE stock will be at $15 or more a share. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by bogusia_k on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
Politics, US – In Timbs v. Indiana, the Supreme Court rules that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-05-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-06-09.
Tech – Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization be on 28 December 2018 is between $360 billion and $430 billion. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2018-12-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-30.
Politics, US – Before 1 March 2019, the U.S. imposes Global Magnitsky Sanctions on any member of Saudi Arabia's Council of Ministers for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-05.
Magnus Carlsen remains World Chess Champion in 2018 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2018-11-10; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by amadeu on 2018-11-28.
Jets will win the super bowl ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by rimbalzanoo on 2018-11-08; known on 2019-02-14; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-08.
Personal – I have either run a board gaming meetup in the two weeks before or have one scheduled for the two weeks after the 1st of December. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-08; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
IE (not Edge) market share between 15-30% ( 70% confidence )

Created by rk on 2018-11-06; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by rk on 2018-11-06.
Politics – Ashiq Masih is granted asylum in the UK, Canada, or US before the start of December. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-07.
Politics, US – Martha McSally is elected senator for Arizona in the November 2018 election. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-15.
Politics, US – Beto O'Rourke is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle out of Senate candidates on the 1st of December 2018. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Jennifer on 2018-12-03.