Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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io9 to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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vox to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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Voyager 1 to outlast Dawn Mission ( 75% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2026-01-01.
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Voyager 1 to outlast the Mars Curiosity rover ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2026-01-01.
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We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the variance in ADHD by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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We will be able to identify the genome-wide significant SNPs (collectively) responsible for 10% of the heritability in adult IQ by 2020 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-03.
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At least one image generated by Deeplearning neaural networks will have seizure-causing effects in >0.1% of human population by 2016 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-07-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Houshalter on 2016-01-11.
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I will get into one of Harvard, MIT, or Princeton ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-14.
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A specific size-based clothing recommendation startup to make in revenue $1M, or exit for >$2M before 3rd year ( 5% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-07-14; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2017-03-17.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-13.
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Greece will default ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mareyes on 2015-07-13; known on 2016-07-13; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-14.
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Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.
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Mealsquares will be more popular than soylent (by number of customers) by 2020 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-16.
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At least one Apollo astronaut will see man land on Mars ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2035-01-16.
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Vine to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Lee Teng-Hui to become a centenarian ( 15% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by n99 on 2022-10-28.
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Chuck Yeager to become a centenarian ( 15% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-12-03.
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There will be a House Mouse that lives up to 6 years by 2025 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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Yasuhiro Nakasone will become the longest-lived Prime Minister of Japan ( 15% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2020-07-13; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-07-13.
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IBM to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 38% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Microsoft to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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There will be more Scarlet Macaws in 2030 than 2010 ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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There to be more kakapo in 2030 than 2010 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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There to be more orcas in 2030 than 2010 ( 10% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Facebook to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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Twitter to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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Apple to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Matlab to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Ketamine to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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Amphetamines to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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Modafinil to be more popular in US in 2025 than 2015 ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-16.
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Portland, OR to have higher population in 2030 than 2010 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Haskell to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Java to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Javascript to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Python to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Marijuana to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 75% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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MDMA to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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Phoenix, AZ population higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Minneapolis population higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 80% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Seattle population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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San Francisco population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Miami population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Coursera to become more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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College Confidential to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Harvard to make tuition free for all undergraduates (at least once) by 2030 ( 25% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Harvard to have more undergraduates in 2020 than 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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The Earth (after climate change) to become as hot as the Eocene Hothouse (at least once) ( 25% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2099-01-01.
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Age of Empires II to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Facebook to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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LiveJournal to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Quora to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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reddit to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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At least one Apollo astronaut to live to see Artificial General Intelligence ( 5% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2045-01-01.
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At least one WWII veteran will live to see Artificial General Intelligence ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2045-01-01.
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James D. Watson to become a centenarian ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2028-04-07.
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Baseball to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Football to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Soccer to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Chess to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Poker to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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League of Legends to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Noam Chomsky to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2029-01-01.
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Chen-Ning Yang to become a centenarian ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2023-01-01.
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Major personalities on predictionbook (gwern, JoshuaZ, etc) will migrate over to another prediction-based website by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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feedly will be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 25% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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A will be at Bs party or on vacation. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-08-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-08-20.
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India to successfully launch at least 15 more commercial satellites before 2018. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-12; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-16.
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I will be a teetotaler for the entire period between now and 2025-01-01 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-12; known on 2025-01-02.
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Greek Central Government or some Greek Institutions will agree to move at least 24 000 million euro worth of assets to a judicial person outside Greek jurisdiction. The initial agreement happens within the deadline of this prediction. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-03.
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Kurdistan will be a UN member by 2018. ( 30% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-08-05.
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Greece will cease using the Euro as its currency. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-07-31; judged wrong by quanticle on 2015-07-31.
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The Greek military or goverment will not sign any document of surrender, pay reparations or lose any territory as a result of military action within the next two decades. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2035-01-01.
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If Greece is bailed out under condition of austerity, these conditions will cease to be enforced within Greece by 2018, or never be enforced at all. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Syriza will remain in power through 2020 ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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R+L=J to be confirmed during Season 6 of Game of Thrones ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-06-30; judged right by BiasedCalibration on 2016-06-30.
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Jon Snow will be alive in some shape or form during Season 6 of Game of Thrones (excluding flashbacks and dream sequences) ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-06-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02.
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John Paul Stevens to become a centenarian ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05.
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At least one of the Mercury astronauts to become a centenarian ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-08-03.
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At least one of the Gemini astronauts will become a centenarian ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2033-01-01.
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At least one of the Apollo astronauts will become a centenarian ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2036-01-01.
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At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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At least 10% of 18-year olds in the US will be unschooled by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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50% of all high school classes in the US to be taught online by 2019 (Clayton Christensen) ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-02.
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Half of more than 4,000 universities in the U.S. (that existed in 2013) to be in bankruptcy by 2028 – Clayton Christensen ( 65% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-01-01.
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There will be more elementary school teachers in 2025 than there are in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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There will be more janitors in the U.S. in 2022 than there will be in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.
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SomethingAwful to exist through 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Slashdot to exist through 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Nigeria to have a larger population than the U.S. (or at least once) by 2050 (http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/jun/13/nigeria-larger-population-us-2050) ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2051-01-01.
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Bisphenol A to be classified as a IARC Group 2A/2B carcinogen by 2030 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Electronic Arts to survive to 2025 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Adobe to survive to 2025 ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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epub to be the most popular file format for eBooks in 2020 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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I will weigh more than 190 lbs on 2020-07-01 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-11; known on 2020-07-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-07-02.
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Sluggish cognitive tempo to be recognized as a disorder independent of ADHD in the DSM-6 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-12-16.