Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Quora to make an independent IPO by 2018 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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FourSquare to still exist as an independent entity by 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Helmut Schmidt to become a centenarian ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by lettergram on 2018-12-18.
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PDFy will stay intact to 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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GTA 6 will be set in Chicago ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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Jane Goodall to do IAmA on reddit by 2025 ( 70% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Food shortages, resurgent Islamic radicalism, and a torrent of oil revenues will cause an “Arab Spring” movement to overthrow the Saudi Arabian government (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.
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Freeman Dyson to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05.
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Daniel Dennett to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Edward O. Wilson to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-06-16.
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Quora to be more popular than reddit by 2020 ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Yale to become a top-15 Computer Science program by 2025 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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There will be no paper newspapers left in the US by 2022 (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/) ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Runescape will still exist by 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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4chan to remain a top-1000 site by the end of 2018 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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We will reach “longevity escape velocity” by 2035 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2036-01-01.
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Alzheimer's to be a curable illness by 2030 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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5-MAPB to be researched as a possible treatment for at least one medical condition (autism, anxiety, PTSD, etc) by 2025 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Gorillas will go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Bonobos to go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Kea (Nestor Notabilis) to go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Kakapo will go extinct by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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A study will be done showing that cannabidiol increases lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Cystic Fibrosis to be a curable illness by 2025 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Arivale (new Leroy Hood startup) will have 10,000 participants by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05.
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Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Wolfram Research will last through 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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2015-2016 El Nino to be stronger than 1997-1998 El Nino ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2017-01-01.
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MDMA will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Google will acquire Yelp by 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Google will acquire Quora by 2020 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.
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Dog Aging Study (http://dogagingproject.com/project-details/ ) to show that rapamycin will improve healthspan of middle-aged dogs by at least 2 years ( 75% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Steam to remain as #1 digital distribution platform for gaming by 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Democratic Party will carry Colorado in 2016 ( 65% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Democratic Party will carry Minnesota in 2016 ( 80% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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LSD to no longer be a Schedule I drug by 2030 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Marijuana will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-07.
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Steve Huffman will remain as reddit CEO to the end of 2015 ( 70% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by InquilineKea on 2016-05-31.
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Tuition at Harvard to be more expensive in 2020 than it is in 2015 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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gnxp.com to last to 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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yourmorals.org to last through 2025 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded for the entire world (by the time historical records ever began) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-19.
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2015 will be the hottest year for the entire world ever recorded (since historical records began) ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2016-01-02; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04.
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I'll miss the train. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-10; known on 2015-07-11; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-10.
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The Stack Exchange Network will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-07-01.
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By 2030, at least one mainly self-driving privately owned car will be legally driven on the Norwegian main roads. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-10; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2025, at least 30% of new cars sold in Norway will be electric. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by silacoid on 2021-06-07.
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The greek banks will not open unrestricted on monday 2015-07-13 ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-10; known on 2015-07-13; judged right by silacoid on 2015-07-13.
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Pirate Bay will still exist in its name by 2020 ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Quora will independently survive to 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-12-31.
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At least one of the Apollo astronauts will die by the end of 2016 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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At least one Nobel Laureate in Physics will have become a centenarian by 2025 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-12-16.
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Freeman Dyson will become a centenarian ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2023-12-16.
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Hans Dehmelt will become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2022-09-16.
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Uber CEO to actually buy Half a Million Autonomous Electric Cars from Tesla By 2020 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31.
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PewDiePie to still be the #1 YouTube celebrity by the end of 2016 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2016-12-31.
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Quora to become top-100 site (measured by Alexa) by the end of 2016 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.
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Jimmy Carter to become the longest-living president in US History ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2018-03-16; judged right by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02.
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voat.co to become a top 300 site by the end of 2015 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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In the next 3 years, someone will use goodai.com's AI framework to build an AI that will be dangerous and/or powerful enough that the US government will acknowledge it as a major problem. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-07-09; known on 2018-07-09; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-08-12.
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Ellen Pao will no longer be CEO of Reddit by September 1, 2015 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-07-10.
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Scotland to secede from the UK in 2017. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Las Malvinas to be liberated by Argentina. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-10-27; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-10-27.
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Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 50 in 2018. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2018-07-27.
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Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 105, up from 142 last year. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-10-27; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28.
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Extreme poverty(WB definition 1.90 per day) to be eliminated by 2025. Poverty declined from 36 % in 1990 to 15 per cent in 2011. Projections indicate that the global extreme poverty rate has fallen further, to 9.6%, as of 2015. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2025-05-28.
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Predictionbook's overall confidence will remain within 5% of accuracy in buckets 50-90 by 2016. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-07-09; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. ( 13% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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“Russia will just come in to pick up the pieces. I'll give it a 70% chance they'll move in before the year ends.” ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-08; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-03.
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The STM will have the Du Collège escalator back in service in July 2015. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by DaFranker on 2015-07-08; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2015-08-10.
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The power at my new place will have been swicthed on by Friday ( 90% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2015-07-08; known on 2015-07-10; judged right by taryneast on 2015-07-08.
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The power will have been switched on at my new place by this evening ( 55% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2015-07-08; known on 2015-07-08; judged right by taryneast on 2015-07-08.
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Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 12 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026. ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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As of January 1, 2021, Russia to have second most number of active nuclear powered subs out of any country. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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The US to have at least 20 active nuclear submarines by the end of 2020. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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The United States to have more nuclear powered submarines than any other single country through 2020. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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2048 bit RSA keys to be widely considered to be deprecated by July 7, 2028 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2028-07-08.
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The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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By January 1, 2017, no unambiguous contact with intelligent extraterrestrials. ( 99% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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The US 2016 Presidential election will occur on its currently scheduled Tuesday date. ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 65% accuracy for the 100% category ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-21.
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When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 50% accuracy for the 100% category ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-21.
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Puerto Rico will default this year. Puerto Rican government is $73 billion in debt, similar debt to New York — a very large state economy — but it only has the population of Connecticut. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-07; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-04.
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Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-07-07; known on 2015-07-08; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-07-08.
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Mass shooting occurs in the US before year end (>5 deaths or casualties) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-07-17.
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Mass shooting occurs in the US within one month with >5 deaths or casualties ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-07-07; known on 2015-08-07; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-07-17.
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ECB to withdraw Greek ELA before the end of the week. Withdraw means complete end to ELA. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-06; known on 2015-07-11; judged wrong by modulus on 2015-07-11.
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I will have 100 blog subscribers eight months from now. (aarongertler.net/subscribe) ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-03-06; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2016-03-06.
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Greece will return to the Drachma and abandon the Euro currency ( 40% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-07-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-05.
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Greece exists from the EU ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-07-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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Mitt Romney will decide to run for President in 2016 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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There will be a terrorist attack on US interests in 2015 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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The Dallas Cowboys will win a Super Bowl by 2018 ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2018-02-15.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next US President, and win popular vote by at least 4.5% ( 27% confidence; 17 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Greece reaches a deal with creditors including debt restructuring without the obligation to reduce public spending ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-07-20.
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Given a no result on the Greek referendum, Greece exits the Eurozone ( 35% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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Greece will vote “no” on the Sunday referendum ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-07-06; judged right by modulus on 2015-07-05.
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Pedophilia will be legalized in 20 years or in DSM6, whichever comes LATER. Legalized in particular means: age-of-consent abolished completely in any single country of so-called First World (or whatever is analogous to that in 20 years); ownership and dis ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jkadlubo on 2015-07-04; known on 2035-07-03.