Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-06-21
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 10% on 2011-06-22
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 10% on 2011-06-22
  • kallman estimated 1% and said “He’s already campaigning! Are we calibrating this on the chance he’s murdered or otherwise incapacitated?on 2011-06-22
  • gwern estimated 2% and said “IIRC, the official papers haven’t been filed yet. I suppose there’s a non-trivial chance he’ll be assassinated.on 2011-06-22
  • dkidston estimated 5% on 2011-06-24
  • faul_sname estimated 8% and said “Or has a health problem.on 2011-07-01
  • papermachine estimated 2% on 2011-07-04
  • Nic_Smith estimated 5% on 2011-07-04
  • muflax estimated 5% on 2011-07-13
  • bobpage estimated 5% on 2011-07-21
  • bobpage estimated 2% on 2011-07-21
  • HonoreDB estimated 1% on 2011-11-08
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2011-11-08
  • moridinamael estimated 2% on 2011-11-10
  • lavalamp estimated 1% on 2011-11-10
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 0% and said “Because it wouldn’t let me enter 0.0001%, and nothing is 0%. on 2011-11-12
  • Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-11-17
  • Nic_Smith estimated 2% on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-20.

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