PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Electron rocket to launch before the end of March. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by Jotto999 on 2018-04-01.

GiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors donating less than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $20 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $13 million. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-02-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-03-31.

GiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors excluding Good Ventures who donate more than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $50 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $27 million (plus money with uncertain attribution). ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-02-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-03-31.

[I will have finished the deep learning course by] March 25 ( 5% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-31.

I will go on a date with the next person I have a crush on. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2017-06-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-03-29.

The listicle I just saw on Facebook “7 Complete Wastes of Money that Most People Don't Even Consider” will all be things that either (1) I've considered, (2) don't apply to me, or (3) save trivial amounts of money. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-03-28; known on 2018-03-29; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2018-03-28.

Personal – I am routinely (at least briefly for at least 5 out of 7 days of the last week spent fully at my apartment) wearing ankle or wrist weights at the end of March 2018. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-01-03; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-03-28.

As of March 27th, 2018, I will still consider “effective altruism” to be a key part of my identity, and will still be donating at least 10% of my income to charity, conditional on my not having become convinced that saving to donate later makes more sense ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-28; known on 2018-03-27; judged right by aarongertler on 2018-03-27.

One or more of Cipriani et al will respond to Scott Alexander's article on their new paper ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by enolan on 2018-02-27; known on 2018-03-27; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-03-27.

If @m doesn't cancel the game 2018-03-22, I will be feeling well enough to come #illness #personal ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2018-03-23; known on 2018-03-24; judged right by crabman on 2018-03-26.

Our DnD session will end before 20:00 ( 60% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2018-03-24; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-03-26.

[I will have finished the deep learning course by] March 18 ( 1% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-25.

If I end up using my Gruzovichkoff order on 2018-03-23, I will pay for 3+ hours of loader's work ( 55% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2018-03-22; known on 2018-03-23; judged right by crabman on 2018-03-24.

2017 Annual US GDP Growth < 4% ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-03-23.

2017 Annual US GDP Growth < 2% ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-03-23.

Hardkernel releases a new Odroid SBC before June 30th 2018. (they've been postponing the release of a roadmap since June 2017: https://forum.odroid.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=18002&start=250#p200485). ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ekr on 2017-11-22; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by ekr on 2018-03-23.

USDJPY goes below 105.24 at any point during March 2018. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Jotto999 on 2018-03-18; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by Jotto999 on 2018-03-22.

I will not cancel psychotherapy session because of illness ( 70% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2018-03-22; known on 2018-03-22; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-03-22.

WFIRST is not completely cancelled in 2018. ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22.

I will end up as one of the drivers on Tuesday or Wednesday. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2018-03-21; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22.

A candidate supported by United Russia will be chosen as president in 2018 elections ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by crabman on 2018-03-20.

UK will expel Russia's ambassador by 18 March 2018. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by fkovacs on 2018-03-14; known on 2018-03-19; judged wrong by fkovacs on 2018-03-19.

Putin will be chosen as president in 2018 #research #politics_russia ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by timmartin on 2018-03-19.

the [how to solve common life problems] wiki linked below will help >10 people with at least one life problem after 60 days http://bring-me-to-life.wikia.com/wiki/Common_life_problems_Wiki ( 30% confidence )

Created by Somni on 2018-01-05; known on 2018-03-06; judged wrong by Somni on 2018-03-16.

Nintendo announces a new instalment in the Super Smash Bros franchise before the end of 2018. ( 15% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16.

[German government formation, 2017:] Any government with any form of support from Left or AfD ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )