Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will be declared successful, whether it meets all objectives or not. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-02-06.
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The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will fail to make its desired orbit. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-02-06.
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2017 to be the warmest year ever ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-02-06.
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The New England Patriots will win Super Bowl LII ( 55% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-02; known on 2018-02-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-05.
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Productivity – I am still trying to using Worksnaps at due date such that I wish to continue paying for it. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2018-01-24; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-02-05.
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Tech – Digital Combat Simulator World 2.5 is released before the end of January 2018 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-02-05.
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Sc will be blegh ( 8% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2018-02-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2018-02-05.
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Dr. Bob says closing stock price of CPG – $37.50 or higher, 75% sure based on predictions of oil. I'm more than that sure just based on inflation and basic economic growth. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2015-01-24; known on 2018-01-23; judged wrong by kjaques on 2018-02-03.
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Dr Bob predicts, based on oil industry, certainty of 75%, that BNE will be $50 or higher on the TSE ( 80% confidence )
Created by kjaques on 2015-01-24; known on 2018-01-23; judged wrong by kjaques on 2018-02-03.
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Scott (of slatestarcodex)'s accuracy / calibration will be about as good as it was last year, not materially worse ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-03.
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Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN) – Brasil's 2017 real economic growth rate will be 0.87%. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-30; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-03.
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2017 will be the hottest year on record. ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2018-02-02.
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Facebook will report more than 1.3 billion DAUs for December 2017, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-02-02.
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Facebook will report more than 1.4 billion DAUs for December 2017, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-02-02.
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Falcon Heavy to launch (successfully or not) in January 2018. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-02.
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No areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored “Extreme Drought” by February 1 2018 ( 33% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ioannes on 2018-02-01.
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Voice recognition software will be capable of replacing the average court stenographer in five years. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-02-02; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2018-02-01.
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Fewer refugees admitted to Europe in 2017 than 2016 ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≤30% ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 30.1%–35% ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 35.1%–37.5% ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 37.6%–40% ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≥40.1% ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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Bitcoin prices will be subdued for January 2018, never rising above it's ATH ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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The legal status of marijuana (including medical) in the UK will undergo a substantial change ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
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North Korea will not experience any significant destabilization of its regime by the end of 2017 ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by blobfish on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
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George H.W. Bush to live beyond Gerald Ford's record lifespan ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
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Food scarce in UK: widespread hunger/empty supermarkets for at least a month(ie not single blip due to natural catastrophe) ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24; known on 2018-01-25; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
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Lives saved from legalized stem cell treatment > Lives lost from military conflicts & flying killer robots / drones 2008-2016 ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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US Newspaperocalypse ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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4% of world economy is cryptocurrency governed ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-11; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-31.
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Trump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Civil war in Saudi Arabia ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Paul Nehlen is banned or suspended from twitter (temporary or permanent either way) ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-12-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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I will finish Algebra 1 at IUM this year ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.
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I will finish Geometry 1 at IUM this year ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.
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I will finish Analysis 1 at IUM this year ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.
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A year from now, I will be unable to remember the plot of “The Nix” ( 55% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-30; known on 2018-01-30; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-30.
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Conservatives will win the general election. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by neilscott on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by neilscott on 2018-01-29.
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Assuming he competes, Novak Djokovic will win the 2018 Australian Open ( 70% confidence )
Created by gurgus on 2017-12-19; known on 2018-01-29; judged wrong by gurgus on 2018-01-29.
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Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
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Kel'Thuzad to be released this year in Heroes of the Storm. ( 70% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by timujin on 2018-01-28.
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The US government undergoes a “government shutdown” for at least 24 hours in 2018 ( 20% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2018-01-27.
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Alex will be home after 7pm ( 65% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-01-27; known on 2018-01-27; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-01-27.
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The Shanghai Draons will lose to the Seoul Dynasty in todays OWL game. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Bacon1001 on 2018-01-25; known on 2018-01-25; judged right by Bacon1001 on 2018-01-25.
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This year, Predictionbook will switch its scoring to be logarithmic ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-13; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-24.
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The U.S. will impose new protectionist tariffs within the first year of Trump's presidency ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sjy on 2016-12-26; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by sjy on 2018-01-22.
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The payload satellites on Rocket Lab's 'Still Testing' Electron rocket will deploy and operate successfully. ( 57% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-18; known on 2017-12-20; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-01-22.
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Rocket Labs 'Still Testing' Electron rocket launch will successfully deploy it's payloads in a stable orbit. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-18; known on 2018-01-30; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-01-22.