Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Trump's approval rating to below 30% by end of first year in office. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-20.
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I think that I will still be using this site in a month. That is, I will have made at least two more serious predictions in the next month. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Enzar on 2017-12-30; known on 2018-01-30; judged right by Enzar on 2018-01-20.
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When I finish travelling the world and come home, I will be glad I did and feel satisfied and proud of myself. I will feel like I am wiser. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2018-01-19.
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I will change careers into some kind of software development job by Winter 2017 ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2018-01-19.
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If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in half a year ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2018-01-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-19.
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2017 will be the second hottest year since 1880 according to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index published by NASA/GISS. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by iCrown on 2017-07-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by iCrown on 2018-01-19.
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US lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia in 2017 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >500 people in 2017 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-17.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >1000 people in 2017 ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-17.
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At least one of the four coordinated EA charities (GD, AMF, FHI, THL) receives a Project for Awesome grant. ( 82% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-16.
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Gary Cohn (Gary David Cohn) will not be the Director of the National Economic Council (NEC) before the end of 2017 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-16.
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Keith Schiller leaves the White House before the end of 2017 ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-01; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-01-16.
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India to successfully launch at least 15 more commercial satellites before 2018. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-12; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-16.
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In the wake of Alphabet, we'll see a boom and subsequent crash of google-related projects. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by timujin on 2018-01-16.
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dm.am release complete with database migration from dungeonmaster.ru this year ( 30% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2018-01-16; judged wrong by timujin on 2018-01-16.
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A Blizzard Classic hero to be released this year in Heroes of the Storm. ( 40% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2018-01-16; judged wrong by timujin on 2018-01-16.
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GiveWell and the Open Philanthropy Project will legally separate into two organizations by December 2017 ( 90% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-23; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15.
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Situation in Israel looks more worse than better at the end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-11.
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Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2017 ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-11.
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Situation in Israel looks more worse than better at the end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-11.
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I will finish the Deep RL course (http://edu.ipavlov.ai/RL/) #personal ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-10.
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I will have dropped piano by this date ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by crabman on 2018-01-10.
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Лизу позовут на оффлайн-собеседования в яндекс на интерна-ресерч-девелопера в 2017 #other_people ( 75% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-30; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by crabman on 2018-01-10.
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Police scanner audio will be routinely encrypted in Boston by 2016 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2018-01-09.
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I will not do any real computer work for more than an hour tomorrow ( 98% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-08; known on 2018-01-09; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-09.
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Saints will win the Wild Card playoff game against the Panthers. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Lissy on 2018-01-08; known on 2018-01-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-08.
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Blue Planet II to reuse more footage without explicitly mentioning it. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2017-12-17; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-01-08.
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Portable medical lasers that seal wounds by 2018 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-08.
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Teleportation of simple molecules by 2018 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-08.
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M1A3 Abrams tanks deployed and operational on battlefields by 2018 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2018-01-08.
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'The Nabucco gas pipeline is completed' in 2017 ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-08.
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Russia Bans Bitcoin ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Dr K on 2018-01-07.
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we will get a gym slot (at least 3 times before march) ( 32% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2018-01-05.
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В этом году (2017) выйдет последняя книга цикла Веры Камши “Отблески Этерны” ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Alaric on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Alaric on 2018-01-04.
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The conservatives will win the next general election in the UK ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2020-08-04; judged right by HonoreDB on 2018-01-04.
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If N is an odd perfect number, under assumption that 3 does not divide N, improvement of linear term on Theorem 1 of Ochem and Rao by 2018 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-04.
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Someone senior in the trump administration goes to jail over collusion with the russians ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-21; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by timmartin on 2018-01-04.
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Legitimate 512 GB USB flash drives will be available on Amazon from at least two different reputable sellers for less than $100 per drive by January 1, 2018. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-03.
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All HLS classes canceled 1/4 ( 10% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03; known on 2018-01-04; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03.
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Tech – Juicero brings out a new bag design which is clearly harder to hand-squeeze by the end of 2017 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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Personal – I reach the 12GB data allowance on my phone before I return home from travel, such that I buy more or curtail my usage. ( 10% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-12-19; known on 2018-01-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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Politics – Julian Assange travels to the US consensually within 2017. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-18; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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Ethereum hard fork will happen because of https://paritytech.io/blog/security-alert.html ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-11-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] never ( 4% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-03.
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[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between October 1 and December 31, 2017 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-03.
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[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] on or after January 1, 2018 ( 1% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-03.
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I will get 70% or more of these predictions right. (Correct sign) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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There will be no public agreement on UK membership of the common market, post-Brexit. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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In 2017, I will get a Brier score of > 0.2. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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Fewer refugees admitted to European countries in 2017 than 2016. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.