Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[Sunday football matches results] Saint Etienne wins ( 75% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-22.
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[Sunday football matches results] Aves does not lose ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-22.
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[Sunday football matches results] Manchester City wins ( 95% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-22.
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[Sunday Football Matches Results] Chelsea beats Southampton ( 80% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-22.
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[Sunday football matches results] Arsenal wins ( 85% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-22.
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[Sunday football matches results] Nice wins ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-22.
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[Sunday football matches results] Stoke wins ( 65% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-22.
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[Sunday football matches results] Augsburg wins ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-22.
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CSKA wins ( 75% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-22.
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Udinese wins ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-22.
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Internazionale wins ( 70% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged right by musashimaru on 2018-04-22.
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Atalanta Torino draw ( 65% confidence )
Created by musashimaru on 2018-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged wrong by musashimaru on 2018-04-22.
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Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf to win the Ibrahim Prize ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-12-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-21.
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I will get anxiety/stress severe enough while studying that I scratch my hands until they bleed ( 90% confidence )
Created by zvory on 2018-03-23; known on 2018-04-20; judged wrong by zvory on 2018-04-20.
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I finish Crucial Conversations by the end of the term ( 30% confidence )
Created by zvory on 2018-03-23; known on 2018-04-20; judged wrong by zvory on 2018-04-20.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 15 ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-16.
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I fully complete all four projects in the RP project space by the end of March ( 30% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-11; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-04-10.
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Trump will be impeached ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by phistr on 2018-04-08; known on 2018-04-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-09.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 8 ( 20% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-09.
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SoftBank (SFTBY)'s market cap will cross $100B this FY , before 31st Mar 2018 ( 100% confidence )
Created by hara on 2018-02-05; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-04-08.
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I will take my car into town on Friday, not the bike or bus. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-04; known on 2018-04-06; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-04-06.
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As of January 1, 2020, there will be at least five YouTube videos with over three billion views each https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_viewed_YouTube_videos ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-05.
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As of January 1, 2019, there will be at least five YouTube videos with over three billion views each https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_viewed_YouTube_videos ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-05.
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On or before January 1, 2020, there will be at least one YouTube video with over 5 billion views. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-05.
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There will be a computer input device that is faster at text input than a keyboard (average of 1.5x speedup or more), reasonably quiet (not standard text dictation), and does not require the use of the eyes. Used by 20% of software developers. ( 25% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by zpinter on 2013-03-31; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-04-05.
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Villanova will win the 2018 NCAA national championship ( 35% confidence )
Created by dakyne on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-04-03; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-04-05.
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I will not attend S' birthday celebrations. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-04-02; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-04-03.
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Google's FeedBurner will survive 5 more years ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Gmail will survive 5 more years ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google+ will survive 5 more years ( 60% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Scholar will survive 5 more years ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Voice will survive 5 more years ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Search will survive 5 years ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Translate will survive 5 years ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2013-05-04.
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Google AdSense will survive 5 more years. ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Alerts will survive 5 more years ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Analytics will survive 5 more years ( 92% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Blogger will survive 5 more years ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Calendar will survive 5 more years ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Docs will survive 5 more years ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Desi will not send any messages at all to me ( 80% confidence )
Created by zvory on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-04-02; judged right by zvory on 2018-04-02.
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There will be a Wikipedia page about Vipul Naik's paid editing of Wikipedia, as of April 1, 2018. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-12; known on 2018-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-02.
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Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.
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The Facebook group, 'Effective Egoism', will have between 100 to 190 members by March 31st 11:59 pm Pacific timezone. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dchristie on 2018-03-04; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by dchristie on 2018-04-01.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 1 ( 10% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-01.
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andrew yang will be president ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kingsheepman on 2018-03-31; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-01.
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New Carly Rae Jepsen album announced in Q1 2018 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-04-01.
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Politics, UK – The Department for International Development announces it is halting or suspending some funding for Oxfam due to sexual misconduct allegations against aid workers before the start of April 2018. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-04-01.
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Bitcoin would have hit an ATH in the last ~38 days ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by Nve on 2018-04-01.