Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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All the officers charged in the George Floyd case will be exonerated or there will be a hung jury. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unseen on 2020-08-05; known on 2022-08-04; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2022-08-04.
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Israel will bomb Iran in the next year. (airstrike/icbm etc. launched directly by the IDF or another Israeli entity) ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rigulel on 2021-08-02; known on 2022-08-02; judged wrong by Rigulel on 2022-08-03.
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I will exercise at least 5 times in the week ending July 31st. ( 60% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2022-08-02.
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I will see my godfather next week. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ygg on 2022-07-15; known on 2022-07-19; judged right by Ygg on 2022-08-01.
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Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold by the end of July 2022. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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The Mind Management, Not Time Management Chirp audiobook will earn $200 in revenue through Findaway Voices the month of the HTS discount. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2022-05-27; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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I'll sell at least 2,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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I'll sell at least 2,500 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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I'll sell at least 3,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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Will I die in the next 1 minute? ( 0% confidence )
Created by devansh.r.pandey@gmail.com on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-07-28; judged wrong by devansh.r.pandey@gmail.com on 2022-07-28.
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More people in Africa will die of Anti-microbial resistant infection ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by APON on 2022-07-13; known on 2027-07-13; judged right by adil on 2022-07-20.
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As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average become more confused? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-07-18.
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As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average become less confused? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-07-18.
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As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average oscillate between more and less confusion? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-07-18.
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I'm going to write at least 15000 words for the novel idea that came to me last night in a dream by 2023. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2022-07-11; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2022-07-17.
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I will email Beth and one other person about my project today ( 90% confidence )
Created by Soren on 2022-07-15; known on 2022-07-16; judged wrong by Soren on 2022-07-16.
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Politics, US – Supreme Court overturns Roe vs Wade before the end of 2022. ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-07-11.
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NIST standardizes Kyber and Dilithium ( 70% confidence )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-14; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by sam_jaques on 2022-07-05.
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A bill to legalise Marijuana is passed in France before the end of June ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-08; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-07-05.
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Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2019-07-05; known on 2022-07-05; judged right by Leo on 2022-07-05.
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Tech – There is strongly implicating evidence that someone did something causing the loss of >=1 QALY of life in order to profit on Manifold Markets by deadline ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-03.
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Valve will release True Sight for The International 10 on or before June 30, 2022 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-04-21; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-07-02.
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ULA's Vulcan rocket to launch by July 1, 2022 ( 72% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-24; known on 2022-07-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-07-02.
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I will pass Italian B1 language by mid 2022 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2020-01-01; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-07-02.
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Russia seizes all of Luhansk ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-12; known on 2022-06-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-07-01.
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Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold by the end of July 2022. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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Politics, US – Supreme Court rule in favor of the State of Mississippi Department of Health in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, thereby colloquially, “Overturning Roe v. Wade” ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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World – Will the US militarily engage Russia by July 1st 2022? ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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Politics, US – Will the US announce intent to allow any Ukrainian citizen who reach its borders to stay until Russia is no longer attacking or occupying Ukraine, before July 1st 2022? ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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Tech – Will Beeminder deem it prudent to make it harder to turn No-Excuses Mode back off after you opt in to it, by deadline? ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-05-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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I will be using Linux in 10 years ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Emacs in 10 years ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Firefox in 10 years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Bash in 10 years ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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Bipartisan gun control legislation passed by the US Senate ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-24.
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Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-30; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-06-22.
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I will have a positive covid test in the next five days. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-06-10; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-06-16.
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Chesa Boudin will be recalled ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2022-06-08; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-12.
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Head of state of a major developed country will be assassinated ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-07.
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Alex Honnold will be alive 5 years from now ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by berekuk on 2017-06-07; known on 2022-06-07; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-07.
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By June 2022, I judge that Human Challenge Trials are attributable to making the date I personally get a COVID-19 vaccine earlier than it otherwise would've been without Human Challenge Trials ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-20; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2022-06-06.
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2205044051 TRẦN MINH TUY u hố lưỡi thanh thiệt ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-03.
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2205044051 TRẦN MINH TUY u hố lưỡi thanh thiệt ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-03.
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twitter will not have the ability to view “latest tweets” (chronological timeline) from the web app on june 1 2022 ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by finback on 2020-09-09; known on 2022-06-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-03.
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As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation. ( 57% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-03.
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Macron will not be re-elected as French President. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by phistr on 2018-04-08; known on 2022-06-30; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-02.
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paulinho será eleito para a seleção do paulistão ( 68% confidence )
Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-02.
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internacional não será campeão gaúcho ( 87% confidence )
Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-02.
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fluminense será campeão carioca ( 77% confidence )
Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-02.
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Danes will vote yes to abolish Denmark's opt-out from EU's common security and defense policy ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-07; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-01.