PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

[SeveNeveS] Ng yrnfg 1 uhzna qrpraqrq sebz Ehshf' pebjq fheivirq gb N.4999 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17.
Politics, US – Rex Tillerson officially announced by Trump or representative as nominee for Secretary of State before 2016-12-17 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-17; judged right by Liron Shapira on 2016-12-15.
Politics, US – Rex Tillerson officially announced by Trump or representative as nominee for Secretary of State before 2016-12-17 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-17; judged right by Liron Shapira on 2016-12-15.
LP feeling generally happier about S than this week ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2016-12-01; known on 2016-12-15; judged right by penten on 2016-12-15.
Trump will nominate Romney ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by michael149 on 2016-12-02; known on 2016-12-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-14.
Politics, US – Rex Tillerson officially announced by Trump or representative as nominee for Secretary of State before 2016-12-17 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-17; judged right by Liron Shapira on 2016-12-15.
Fiction, Webseries, Twig – Sy meets with Fray during 15.13 or 15.14 ( 20% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2016-12-13.
If elected, Trump's presidency will lead to genocide in Syria by 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ifonlyalabama on 2016-09-19; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by ifonlyalabama on 2016-12-13.
Fiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age – Bandit says at least one sentence to Ardaic within Chapter 45, Pages 19, 20, or 21. ( 40% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2016-12-12.
Dota 2 7.00: Iron Talon cost and damage to creeps on activation unchanged ( 80% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged right by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Outworld Devourer base armour or base damage reduced ( 75% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Hurricane Pike cooldown increased ( 80% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Hurricane Pike recipe cost increased ( 70% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Laguna Blade damage increased ( 30% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Disruption illusions damage taken increased ( 90% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Disruption cooldown increased ( 60% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Moon Glaive no longer works on illusions ( 70% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Underlord added to captains mode ( 90% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged right by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Arc Warden added to captains mode ( 80% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged right by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Aether Lens recipe cost reduced ( 70% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Guardian Greaves recipe cost reduced ( 60% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: 2 new heroes added ( 20% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Damage dealt to buildings by illusions reduced ( 30% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged right by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Wisdom stat added ( 5% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Necronomicon recipe cost reduced ( 40% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Conceding possible in ranked matchmaking ( 2% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: In-game HUD changed significantly ( 80% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged right by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Dragon Lance agility and strength boost reduced ( 80% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Heaven's Halberd cooldown reduced ( 70% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Sentry Wards no longer purchased in pairs ( 30% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
Dota 2 7.00: Divine Rapier damage increased ( 40% confidence )

Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
HPMoR: Harry Potter has asked the Weasleys for a computer. ( 15% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2016-12-11.
Waterstones removes the US Army Improvised Munitions Handbook from sale, on or before 2016-11-20 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-12-11.
Amazon removes at least one listing of the US Army Improvised Munitions Handbook from sale, on or before 2016-11-20 ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-12-11.
I'll recover from the flu enough to work on the 10th ( 70% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-08; known on 2016-12-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-10.
Craig S. Wright will not (in the next year) demonstrate possession of the key with fingerprint DE4E FCA3 E1AB 9E41 CE96 CECB 18C0 9E86 5EC9 48A1, nor of any other key or bitcoin convincingly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. ( 82% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by James Babcock on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-09.
We decide to change S's name in the next month ( 10% confidence )

Created by penten on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-09.
We will buy more clothes for S within a month ( 70% confidence )

Created by penten on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-09.
As of January 1, 2017, there will be at least 40 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-07.
CR's friend will get snow tires on his truck in time for CR to borrow it ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-19; known on 2016-12-06; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-06.
Amazon Web Services will drop the storage price for S3 standard storage in its US standard (N. Virginia) region between November 13, 2016 and January 1, 2018. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-06.
The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will exceed 5.3 million on or before January 1, 2017. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-06.
I will have sex with a woman (IQ>137, non-US born) at the Envision Conference in Princeton ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2016-11-28; known on 2016-12-06; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2016-12-06.
Logos01 will commit suicide in 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-05; known on 2016-12-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-05.
A's bike will get stolen or lost in 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by adri on 2016-12-04.
A will get 12 in Top. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2015-02-14; judged right by adri on 2016-12-04.
“Little sister” will go on a mission before 2016. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by adri on 2016-12-04.
A will go skiing in 2015. ( 30% confidence )

Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by adri on 2016-12-04.
@paxdickinson will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-04.
Melbourne City will not win anything John van't Schip as Head Coach. ( 100% confidence )

Created by dfebb on 2015-05-21; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-04.