Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Japanese lawmakers will pass a bill after the Upper House Elections in the Fall of 2016 legalizing casino-type gambling; furthermore a 'head tax' similar to the system in Singapore will be imposed on Japanese citizens but more likely Japanese residents. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amexfireplace on 2015-12-05; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-04.
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Zak Goldsmith will win Richmond Park by election on 1dec2016. ( 92% confidence )
Created by CLARENCETHEANGEL on 2016-12-01; known on 2016-12-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-04.
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At least one senator or representative to change parties before the election. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-07; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-03.
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A terrorist attack or series of terrorist attacks ordered by Kim Jong Un on South Korean & possibly Japanese targets including public transportation, power plants and on individual disidents or critics will happen some time in 2016 – possibly within 90d. ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by amexfireplace on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-03.
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Politics, India – It is announced before 2016-12-01 that banks will accept old 500 and 1000 rupee notes, for exchange or for any other purpose, beyond 2016-12-30, either indefinitely or up to an extended deadline. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by michael149 on 2016-12-02.
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The Liberal Democrat candidate will win more votes than the Labour candidate in the Richmond Park by-election ( 64% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-12-02; judged right by splorridge on 2016-12-02.
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Zac Goldsmith will win the Richmond Park by-election ( 60% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-12-02; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-12-02.
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Zac Goldsmith will win the Richmond Park by-election ( 60% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-12-02; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-12-02.
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I am still using Complice on December 1 2016. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-12-02.
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Democrats take the Senate in 2016. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by lalaithion on 2016-12-01.
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Francois Hollande to enter french presidential race ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by leo_grint on 2016-11-22; known on 2016-12-23; judged wrong by leo_grint on 2016-12-01.
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We'll conduct the third applied rationality workshop in Kocherga in October or November 2016 ( 80% confidence )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by berekuk on 2016-12-01.
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Falcon Heavy test flight by November 30, 2016 ( 32% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-01.
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Within two months of halving, bitcoinCAD price doubles ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01.
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S born after 1st November ( 60% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-10-13; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by penten on 2016-12-01.
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Intrade's prediction will reflect Nate Silver's prediction (within 1.0% sometime during election day) in the 2016 presidential election. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-11; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2016-11-30.
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As of January 1, 2017, Fifth Harmony's “Work from Home” will be the only YouTube video released in 2016 that has over a billion views. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30.
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As of January 1, 2017, Fifth Harmony's “Work from Home” will be the only YouTube video released in 2016 that has over a billion views. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30.
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The amount of money Good Ventures will donate in 2016 (at end of year) to GiveWell top charities at GiveWell's recommendation will be between $10 million and $50 million. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-01-15; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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The amount of money Good Ventures will donate in 2016 (at end of year) to GiveWell top charities at GiveWell's recommendation will be between $10 million and $50 million. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-01-15; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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GiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Saturday, December 3, 2016. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2016-12-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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2016 predictions: At the end of the year AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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2016 predictions: GiveWell will add a charity to their recommendations that is not on the current list (AMF, SCI, Deworm the World, GiveDirectly). ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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GiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Saturday, December 10, 2016. ( 91% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2016-12-10; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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I will have > 2000 lines of Elixir code before 2017 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-29.
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Fillon wins french right wing primary ( 80% confidence )
Created by leo_grint on 2016-11-22; known on 2016-12-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-29.
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Alain Juppé wins the “Les Republicains” primary (France). ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-14; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-29.
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Contingent on him being nominated for President by the GOP, Rand Paul will be elected President of the United States in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-01-25; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-11-28.
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zcash price in bitcoin between [0.001, 500] BTC/ZEC ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-28; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-28.
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Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016 ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by neilscott on 2016-11-26.
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I will receive a new passport before 2017-01-20 ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-26.
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GiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Thursday, November 24, 2016 (Thanksgiving Day). ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-15; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-24.
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Refurbished iPad mini 4 will be returned before 2016-11-29 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-20; known on 2016-11-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-24.
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1360-80 in SAT practice test C ( 80% confidence )
Created by rishika on 2016-11-21; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by rishika on 2016-11-23.
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Used iPad mini 4 will be returned before 2016-11-23 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2016-11-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-23.
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Second Dell server will not need to be returned within a week ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2016-11-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-23.
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rn will respond before 2016-11-22 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2016-11-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-22.
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Clinton to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-21.
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Personal – In my multiplayer game of Alpha Centauri with the other Rattumblrites, I (jbeshir) win. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-08; known on 2016-11-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-21.
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Fiction, Webseries, RWBY – Yang puts on the prosthetic during Volume 4, Episode 4. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-08; known on 2016-11-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2016-11-21.
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It will be exposed that a current presidential candidate was involved in a sex scandal by year end. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Osuniev on 2016-11-21.
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HP MoR: Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016. ( 11% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2016-11-21.
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kinshana is a typo ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2016-11-20; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-20.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Jillian confirmed to be attacking Gobwin Knob with no visible presence of Charlescomm within pages 212 or 213. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-11-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2016-11-19.
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Donald Trump will loose the presidential election and launch a news media channel in 2017 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by hoka on 2016-10-10; known on 2017-05-16; judged wrong by leo_grint on 2016-11-19.
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Will Iran's regime will end? ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by New on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-11-19; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-19.
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I didn't just lose bitcoin ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-16; known on 2016-11-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-18.
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I spend less than $900 next month. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-11-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-17.
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I spend less than $1000 next month. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-11-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-17.
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I will judge myself to be “very happy” next wednesday ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by penten on 2016-11-16.