The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for December 2016 than for December 2015. http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?tag=Countries&months0=201612&months1=201512&language=en&drilldown=desktop ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-16; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-01.

After a period of cognitive dissonance, a sizable part of the press will start referring to the US as a “center-left” country during the Obama term. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.

Research In Motion will either declare bankruptcy protection or will be acquired. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by quanticle on 2015-12-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.

Jacob Appelbaum will kill himself before 2017 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.

Tsipras will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.

Nicolas Maduro will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 9% confidence )

Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.

Bachar el Assad will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.

Apple will be a trillion dollar company before end of 2016 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-26; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.

I will switch away from Sublime Text as my primary editor before 2017 ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.

Before 2017, I will switch from Ubuntu back to Windows for most of my desktop computing ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.

zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2017 ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.

Hangarback Walker will be worth at least $20 by end of 2016. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bshih on 2015-09-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by bshih on 2017-01-01.

Jace, Vryn's Prodigy will be worth at least $50 by the end of 2016. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bshih on 2015-09-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by bshih on 2017-01-01.

SpaceX launches (defined as lifting off the ground at a scheduled launch time, otherwise no success requirement) again before the end of 2016. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.

Apple market capitalization >=$1 trillion by 2017 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.

I will buy an HTC Vive (the version released in May 2016) before 2017 ( 2% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.

OVH will set up a west coast (North America) datacenter before 2017 and rent servers/VPSes in it to the general public ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.

@realDonaldTrump will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.

I will write 3,000+ lines of Rust in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.

I will buy a VR HMD before 2017 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.

I will meet IRL anyone found via Tinder, before 2017 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.

2016 predictions: I will have >365 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.

2016 predictions: I will run a marathon. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.

2016 predictions: We’ll buy a new car. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.

2016 predictions: Sam will attend grad school. ( 35% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.

2016 predictions: Sam will be a vegetarian, pescetarian, or vegan at the end of the year. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.

2016 predictions: I will be a vegan at the end of the year. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.

2016 predictions: I will have a baby. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.

Bashar Al-Assad government will control at least 50% of Syrian territory by next year. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-31.

2016 predictions: World War III will happen. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.

“Within a decade Wal-Mart (WMT) shares cease to be listed on the NYSE as a result bankruptcy, being taken over/private, or being delisted by the exchange.” ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-31.

There will be a Israel Palestinian peace deal before the end of Obama's term. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-04-17; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.

Guantanamo Bay detention facility to close before year end. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.

Over 30,000 people will take the life you can save pledge by Dec 31, 2016 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by commercecat on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.

Lucid Motors/Atieva launches a fully electric vehicle ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.