Between 2% and 8% of the ~1500 respondents will answer “More than 50%” to my Google Surveys question “What proportion of the people currently physically present in the United States are foreign-born?” ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-15.

Fiction, Webseries, Twig – In 15.3, we get confirmation that the chief members of the Rank have cooperated. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-15.

My configuration manager will be deployed on at least one server before 2016-11-15 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-24; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15.

[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop but the body she wants is not Sarah Michelle Gellar, Ana, or Aaron. ( 3% confidence )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-14.

[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop and she wants the body of Aaron ( 2% confidence )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-14.

[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop and she wants the body of Ana ( 20% confidence )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-14.

Nate Silver's “Polls Only” model proves to be the most accurate of 538's three models on election day. ( 60% confidence; 8 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-14.

Assuming I get the job, I will have to be evacuated at some point this year due to forest fire ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-14.

Fiction, Webseries, Twig – 15.2 is from the Lambs' perspective. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-08; known on 2016-11-13; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-14.

“Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-14.

Republicans win between 231 and 240 house seats in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by elephantower on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-13.

By 2016, Legislation will have been introduced (not necessarily passed) banning home solar generation on grounds of safety. ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ARFisk on 2011-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by ARFisk on 2016-11-13.

In the 2016 election, a majority of Hispanic voters (as determined by exit polls) will vote for the Republican candidate. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-12.

Conditional on Rand Paul not winning the Republican nomination for President, the eventual Democratic nominee will win the popular vote by at least 2%.. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-12.

Test 4 – Does this 30% probability show up in 70%? ( 30% confidence )

Created by savolver on 2016-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by savolver on 2016-11-12.

Test 4 – Does this 30% probability show up in 70%? ( 30% confidence )

Created by savolver on 2016-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by savolver on 2016-11-12.

Fiction,Webcomics, Erfworld – Caesar agrees to at least not interfere in an attempt to turn Parson, within pages 210 or 211. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-08; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-12.

Dilma Rousseff will be president of Brazil until 2018 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by daniel74f on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jesseh on 2016-11-10.

Democrats win the IN senate seat ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-10.

Donald Trump to win the US Presidential election with at least 302 electoral votes. ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-06-05; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by trishume on 2016-11-10.

Pat McCrory will be re-elected governor ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by predictit on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-10.

I will get a response from R before 2016-11-10 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10.

Jim Webb to be the next elected President of the US. ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

HRC wins at least one of the following: AZ, GA, MO, MT, SC. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-28; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

Clinton chooses Michael B. Coleman as running mate. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

Voter turnout for the US Presidential election to be less than 49% of registered voters. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-28; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.