Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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No terrorist attack in the in the US will kill > 100 people in 2016 ( 88% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will survive 2016 without large civil war/revolt ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will survive the year 2016 without large civil war/revolt. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence before year end. ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Facebook will either remove the negative-valence expanded reaction buttons, or in some way allow people to de-activate the option for their own posts, by the end of 2016 ( 28% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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I will discover a 16th/17th century composer more avant-garde than M. Rossi or Gesualdo ( 25% confidence )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2017-01-01.
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Guy who charged stage at trump rally below is not actually a secret trump plant. ( https://twitter.com/virtadpt/status/709184534995075072 ) ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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It will be revealed that Trump's goal in running for President was to see Clinton elected, in a kind of false-flag shill operation. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2016-08-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Dalwa al Islamyya fails to detonate a nuclear weapon (incl dirty bomb with 1+ fatality) in the continental US in 2016 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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spacex falcon heavy rocket launch carrying lightsail-1 or 2 or 3 to space will be successful in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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'Existing currencies are abolished. The “mega-watt-hour” becomes the universal unit of exchange.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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India's first manned spaceflight by 2017. ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Martial law declared in at least a third of the US by by end of 2016. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Largest bitcoin exchange by volume over dec 2016 will be a chinese one / btcCNY* ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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By January 1, 2017, no unambiguous contact with intelligent extraterrestrials. ( 99% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Vandiver conjecture to not be resolved before January 1, 2017. ( 94% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Google to replace Intel as the next sponsor of the Intel Science Talent Search. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-09; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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The US to have a population between 310 million and 334 million on January 1, 2017 ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Ochem and Rao's bound on OPNs to be improved by January 1, 2017. Details in comments. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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By January 1, 2017, Martin's proof that QMA2 is in EXP will be repaired. ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Same-sex marriage to be recognized in Germany by January 1, 2017 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Indonesia to recognize same sex marriage before January 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers 2016 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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2016 North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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2016 SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket: ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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2016 global climate change reaches +10 degrees Celsius relative to 1996 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people during 2016 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by leo_gri on 2017-01-01.
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Salmane ben Abdelaziz al-Saoud (Arabie Saoudite) will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 2% confidence )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by leo_gri on 2017-01-01.
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Intel releases new socket standard/type in 2016 ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Bouteflika will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 9% confidence )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by leo_gri on 2017-01-01.
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Macron candidat 2017 ( 12% confidence )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by leo_gri on 2017-01-01.
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HTML5.1 goes to PR/Rec status at w3c, complete with DRM/EME ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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https://classic.ripplepay.com does does not survive 2016 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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US mandates backdoors in all crypto used on continental US ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Full (infant) human mind provably fully simulatable on any amount of extant hardware ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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SaskTel goes on strike ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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SaskTel is legislated back to work as “Essential Services” ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Asoiaf: Neln Fgnex vf encrq ol gur znal snprq tbq. ( 42% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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The DAO still exists / has a value of at least 1$ ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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bank of canada sets target for overnight rate 1.36% or higher ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Massacre at Standing Rock, >50 people killed 2 weeks after election results decided ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Rationalist club Kocherga won't shut down in 2016 ( 70% confidence )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by berekuk on 2017-01-01.
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Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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From today until January 1st, 2017 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile in the last two months of 2016 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-11-02; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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HP MoR: The use of the device with the golden wibblers is revealed before 2017. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-01-01.
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Uber will be banned from Manhattan by the end of 2016. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mikayla on 2015-08-21; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-01-01.