Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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O processo de impeachment será concluído com o afastamento da presidente DR. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-11-13; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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2017 US Congress HOUSE to be controlled by republicans. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-11-13; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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2017 US Congress SENATE to be controlled by democrats. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-11-13; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next US President, and win popular vote by at least 4.5% ( 27% confidence; 17 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Missouri will be a swing state in 2016 (within 1% of the vote margin of the median Electoral College vote). ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-10-31; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Democrat to win popular vote in 2016 with at least 57% of the popular vote. ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Conditional on Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination, she will get at least 54% of the popular vote. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Democrats to control US Senate after 2016 election. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-03; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The Democratic candidate takes North Carolina in 2016. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2% of the national popular vote in November. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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In the 2016 US presidential election, dealing with the NSA etc. will not be ignored and will be a serious debate issue, on par with the economy or abortion. ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2016-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
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McCain wins re-election in 2016 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
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Given that they complete a least 48 attempted replications, less than 5% of the replications the reproducibility project* is attempting will successfully replicate at the p<.05 level. http://openscienceframework.org/project/shvrbV8uSkHewsfD4/wiki/index ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-19; known on 2022-10-10; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2016-11-09.
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The US 2016 Presidential election will occur on its currently scheduled Tuesday date. ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton elected AND nuclear war involving the US during her reign ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Clinton elected and US civil war ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton drops out of the presidential race due to health reasons ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2.4% of the popular vote in New Hampshire. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2016-11-09.
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Romney runs third party. ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Romney is GOP nominee. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Third party candidate gets more votes than Trump. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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C will learn how to solve a Rubik's cube this year. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-01-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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If nominated, Trump will win zero electoral votes. ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Trump will not lead Clinton in the RCP average by more than 5% at any point in the 2016 election. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-01; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will win at least 320 electoral votes in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-12-22; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Republicans win between 231 and 240 house seats in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-13.
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Republicans win between 231 and 240 house seats in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-13.
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For the remainder of the 2016 Presidential Campaign, Trump will not have an approval rating higher than his bounce after the RNC ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-31; known on 2016-11-24; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary will win the presidency ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nelson.horsley@gmail.com on 2016-09-18; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Democratic candidate to win 2016 presidential election by greater margin than Obama did in 2012. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-09-20; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Republican VP candidate in 2016 will be Nikki Haley. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Clinton wins by 5 points or more. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Whoever wins the State of Pennsylvania will win the 2016 US Presidential Election ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-11-06; known on 2016-12-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Clinton wins entire eastern seaboard from Maine to Florida. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-09; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The next president won't be a Democrat ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Democratic Party will carry Colorado in 2016 ( 65% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Clinton wins at least one of the following: AK, GA, MO ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-10-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The winner of the 2016 US presidential election will be a Democrat. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Utah will go to somebody other than the GOP nominee in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-30; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Trump takes fewer electoral votes than Goldwater. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-21; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2016 Presidential election. ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gsastry on 2015-10-31; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. ( 6% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Christie disavows support for Donald Trump before the election. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Both the Republicans and the Democrats to each have at least 34 US Senators after the 2016 election ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.