Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31 ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30.
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Conditional on the UK Government under Theresa May seeking to invoke Article 50 on the Lisbon Treaty, it will have to be passed through Parliament before being invoked. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-31.
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Rousey beats Amanda Nunes ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-30; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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Bear Market in the USA: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 to experience at least 20% decline from peak in 2015. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-31.
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DJIA will have decreased by 40% of its market price on 20 Feb 2016 to 9835 or lower at a point between 20 Feb and 31 Dec ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by xplkqlkcassia on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-31.
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Apple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-30.
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Jessica won't visit me before the end of the year. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-12-30.
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At least one US Presidential candidate who is major enough to appear in one of the major Presidential debates will mention the growth of AI sometime before the Presidential election. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.
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Nuclear weapon used by India or Pakistan on military target, at least 2 casualties ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.
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At some point on or before January 1, 2017, http://effective-altruism.com/ea/c8/should_you_donate_to_the_wikimedia_foundation/ will be among the five most viewed blog posts on the Effective Altruism Forum. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-14; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-30.
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My future will be bright and enjoyable. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-07-21; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-12-29.
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0-15 faithless electors ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-29.
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Apple’s stock will be at least $138.52 according to 32 analysts. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-29.
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I will receive an amazon voucher as a present this Christmas ( 65% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2016-12-28; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-28.
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I will receive an amazon voucher as a present this Christmas ( 65% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2016-12-28; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-28.
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I will receive an amazon voucher as a present this Christmas ( 65% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2016-12-28; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-28.
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I will receive beer as a present this Christmas ( 70% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2016-12-28; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-28.
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Carrie Fisher will die before Harrison Ford. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-28; known on 2040-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-28.
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Iraqi government will retake Mosul from Islamic State this year. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-26.
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Syrian government will take Raqqa from Islamic State this year. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-26.
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₹72-3 to the US dollar by December 2016. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-25; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-26.
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Turkey is served at the family Christmas dinner ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-09; known on 2016-12-26; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-26.
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I will receive a coffee-related gift this Christmas ( 30% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2016-12-28; judged right by penten on 2016-12-25.
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“White Christmas” (any snowfall on Christmas day qualifies) ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-09; known on 2016-12-26; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-25.
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Boko Haram will be defeated this year. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-25.
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Berlin truck driver is muslim ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-12-19; known on 2016-12-26; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-24.
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codeword: jxa ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Daniel Reeves on 2015-12-24; known on 2016-12-23; judged right by Daniel Reeves on 2016-12-23.
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“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: ch 81: Harry's solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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HP MoR: ch 81: Harry's solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Aaron will eat a sandwich for lunch today. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Rob Bednark on 2016-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Rob Bednark on 2016-12-20.
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Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-20.
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The electors in the Electoral College will give both Trump and Pence >= 270 votes ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-11; known on 2016-12-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-19.
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>32 faithless electors ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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At least one “faithless elector” in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College. ( 66% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
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0 faithless electors ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
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>32 faithless electors ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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I make more than 500gbp in non-work income by the end of the year ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by penten on 2016-12-19.
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1px borders still look good (always rendered as 1px) in non-integer-scaled Chrome in both 56 beta and 57 unstable, as of today ( 87% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-18; known on 2016-12-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-18.
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I will read 52 or more books in 2016 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-18.
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[SeveNeveS] – Znegvnaf Yvirq gb ng yrnfg +N.4999 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17.