PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

The S&P 500 Index will go below 1250 in 2016. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
The S&P 500 Index will close below 1600 at the end of 2016. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
The S&P 500 will close below 1750 at the end of 2016. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
The S&P 500 Index will close below 2000 at the end of 2016. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US in 2016 ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world in 2016 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
by 2017 at least 8 states will have legalized recreational use of marijuana. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket in 2016. (Payload reaches outer space, i.e. 100km) ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
recreational use of marijuana will be legalized in arizona by 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
Kyrgyzstan will experience a change in ruling party or civil unrest before 2017. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
Bitcoin will end 2016 higher than $500 ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2016 than it does right now ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state (Excluding the PA/Hamas, not excluding IS or Hezbollah) in 2016 ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro in 2016 ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
Young girls will stop gossiping in Saskatoon ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Aug 1, 2014. ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Aug 1, 2014. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
United States will engage in war by the end of the year ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by blahblah on 2014-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
There will be at least two more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
There will be at least three more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
There will be at least four more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
There will be at least five more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
There will be at least six more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
There will be at least seven more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
There will be at least eight more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
There will be at least nine more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
The Labour party will split ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
The Conservative party will split ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
3d printers in houses ( 50% confidence )

Created by abdullahmarzouk on 2014-06-11; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
Augur (Ethereum prediction market) will launch in 2016 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Dapple on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
2015-2016: German GDP growth > French and British GDP growth —Michael Pettis ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
“The World Bank predicts that Yemen's oil and gas revenues will plummet over the next two years and fall to zero by 2017 as supplies run out.” ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
Dr Bob says: If you invest at Apple in June of 2014 right after the split at roughly $90/share then hold those shares and sell on Dec 31, 2016 you will show a loss. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kjaques on 2014-06-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kjaques on 2017-01-01.
Dow Jones Industrial Average will not fall > 10% over the course of 2016. (It will end above 15,434) ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers. (I assume this means 100 US deaths in 2016) ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
Oil will end 2016 lower than $40 a barrel ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
I will not have the new chair permanently taken away from me during 2016 ( 97% confidence )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
3 billion Android users at any point in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-01-01.
Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro in 2016 ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-18; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
GB/$ of Flash/SSD=hard-drives in or by 2016 —William Hertling ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-11-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
'Completion of the i5K project' by 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
Strait of Messina bridge completed by 2017 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
Ron Paul will be dead by 2017. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
HVD have replaced Blu-Ray by 2017 ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
Gold has peaked for the next 5 years (spot gold < 1900 until 1-1-2017) ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
'Laser guns are in naval use' in 2016 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017. ( 7% confidence; 20 wagers; 20 comments )

Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
Gary Johnson to get > 5% of the vote in 2016 ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
Assuming Obama wins second term, repubs will try to impeach him sometime during the his second term ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be invaded by Russian forces before 2017. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Znt on 2015-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.