PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will put in a reaction today. ( 90% confidence )

Created by booradleytron on 2014-05-21; known on 2014-05-22; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-05-21.

By June 2014, I will decide to stop eating wheat ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-11; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-21.

I will be able to pack everything for China into one backpack. ( 90% confidence )

Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by from3004 on 2014-05-20.

BJP will win elections in India ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by dgray on 2014-04-09; known on 2014-05-15; judged right by roshni on 2014-05-20.

Narendra Modi will become PM of India in the 2014 elections. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by roshni on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by roshni on 2014-05-20.

It will have taken between 100 and 150 days since the publication of the blog post below for me to have been asked for money by 50 people on the streets of New Haven: http://aarongertler.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/belated-philanthropy/ ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-05-19; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-05-19.

It will have taken between 100 and 150 days since the publication of the blog post below for me to have been asked for money by 50 people on the streets of New Haven: http://aarongertler.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/belated-philanthropy/ ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-05-19; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-05-19.

It will we sunny and much warmer than 20C in Barcelona this weekend ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by influnza on 2014-05-13; known on 2014-05-19; judged wrong by influnza on 2014-05-19.

The majority of people eligible for Obamacare won't be enrolled by April 13, 2014. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by recondaddy on 2013-10-13; known on 2014-04-13; judged right by procran on 2014-05-18.

I will graduate from Denison University by May 17, 2014. ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-17; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-18.

one of the bridesmaids/men at my sister's wedding will faint ( 2% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-18.

my sister will trip down the aisle at her wedding ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-18.

There will be Doritos at the wedding or related meal tonight ( 60% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-05-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-18.

Home Depot receipt will be on fridge when we get home. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by danne on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by tunesmith on 2014-05-17.

We will finish the entirety of RENT tonight. ( 80% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-05-16; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-17.

I will make daily predictions until at least the end of May. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by cobalt on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-31; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-16.

Mom will say Happy is a 5/5 song when I ask ( 90% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-16; known on 2014-05-16; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-16.

Oklahoma City Thunder will win their 2nd round series against the Los Angeles Clippers (2014). ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-19; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-16.

Indiana Pacers will win their 2nd round series against the Washington Wizards (2014). ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-19; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-16.

Wayne Hsiung will refuse to bet against the claim that attitudes to in vitro meat will change after such meat becomes commercially available. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Pablo on 2014-05-14; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by Pablo on 2014-05-15.

I will have 3 perfect days in a row on HabitRPG, starting today. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by prototrout on 2014-05-14; known on 2014-05-17; judged wrong by prototrout on 2014-05-15.

I will get accepted to App Academy before 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-05-15.

The San Antonio Spurs will win their 2nd round series against the Portland Trailblazers. ( 84% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-15.

The Boston Bruins will win their 2nd round series against the Montreal Canadiens (2014). ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-15; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-15.

The Miami Heat will win their 2nd round series against the Brooklyn Nets (2014). ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-19; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-15.

The Chicago Blackhawks will win their 2nd round series against the Minnesota Wild (2014). ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-16; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-14.

I will get an 'A' or better in PHI 313: Probability, Evidence, and Decision. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-06-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-05-14.

I will have learned “a new thing” about my food problem by the end of May, as determined by an impartial judge when I explain how the month has gone. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by etarletons on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by etarletons on 2014-05-12.

I will write a > 100 line Python program or modify > 100 same-program lines of Python in 2014 ( 93% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-12.

Grandma will give me money when I go to her house today ( 50% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-11; known on 2014-05-12; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-12.

I will agree with my mother about my brother's actions in the story he's about to tell me not being weird ( 80% confidence )

Created by mad on 2014-05-12; known on 2014-05-12; judged right by mad on 2014-05-12.

I will watch one or more episodes of Game of Thrones Season 4 before 2015 ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-12.

I will continue to drink an espresso a day by the end of April. ( 80% confidence )

Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-05-11.

Nicholas Wade will still be employed by the New York Times in a year. ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2014-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by Afforess on 2015-10-09.

Nicholas Wade will still be employed by the New York Times in a year. ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2014-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by Afforess on 2015-10-09.

There will be at least one Diet Coke in the fridge when I open it. ( 30% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-05-11; known on 2014-05-11; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-05-11.

I will be asked out by a girl before the end of the Spring 2014 semester. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-09; known on 2014-05-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-10.

Today, I will successfully 3×5 squat 225lbs. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-09; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-09.

Tasha Fox will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, accountant) ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-09.

All TPS reports are delivered by 3 PM Thursday. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-08; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-08.

OKC beats LA Clippers in Game 2. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-08; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.

Vidal Nuno will pitch at least 5 innings. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.

Yankees will score more than 3 runs. ( 57% confidence )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.

John Ryan Murphy gets a hit tonight. ( 45% confidence )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.

Yankees hit a home run (5/7) ( 66% confidence )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.

My family does not get the creek house ( 40% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-08-16; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-08.

The creek house we want will not go for a price under 200 (or 20, I forget the magnitude. The point is that Mom won't get her -1 or 2 significant digit she wants.) ( 30% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-08-16; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-08.

Yankees score more than 2 runs in the 1st inning. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-08; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.

Yankees score in 1st inning. ( 92% confidence )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-08; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.

Penguins win Game 4 vs Rangers. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.

Statistics

Judged Predictions