PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

HPMoR: Harry will bring Hermione back to life. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by booradleytron on 2015-03-31.

Lexi will finish an episode of Night Vale by the end of today. ( 75% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-01; known on 2014-06-02; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-01.

I will do predictions for a month at least ( 76% confidence )

Created by influnza on 2014-04-29; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by influnza on 2014-06-01.

I will have an internship this summer. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-01.

I will take at least 50 credit hours during the 2013-14 school year. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-01.

I will take at least 45 credit hours during the 2013-14 school year. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-01.

I will still be actively using HabitRPG by June 2014 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Rowan93 on 2014-06-01.

Iran and the P5+1 powers will reach a long term nuclear deal ( 60% confidence )

Created by scrafty on 2014-02-02; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by scrafty on 2014-06-01.

I will be accepted for a postdoc position by June 1 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-03; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-06-01.

NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's resolutions from now until the fall equinox. ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01; known on 2014-09-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01.

Hannes Rusch simulated random-payoff two-person games (http://www2.units.it/etica/2013_2/RUSCH.pdf) and found that 3.4% of them fit a technical definition of “Prisoner's Dilemma”. The payoffs were uniformly distributed integers in the interval [0-N] and ( 4% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by torekp on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by torekp on 2014-06-01.

The continuous-normal-distribution random-payoff games will have < 3.4% Prisoner's Dilemmas (estimated to the nearest 0.1%). ( 48% confidence )

Created by torekp on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by torekp on 2014-06-01.

The continuous-normal-distribution random-payoff games will have <= 5.1% Prisoner's Dilemmas (estimated to the nearest 0.1%); i.e. within 1.5 times the original finding for uniform distribution. ( 85% confidence )

Created by torekp on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by torekp on 2014-06-01.

NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's Resolutions until the summer solstice. ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-01; known on 2014-06-21; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01.

15+ people will be signed up for my Prediction challenge(s) by the end of May ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-01.

At least 3 people (not including myself) will be signed up for my “I'm always right” challenge by the end of May ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-01.

I will still have making a prediction a day as a Daily in HabitRPG through May 31, 2014 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-01.

I will tech for the choir concert tomorrow night. ( 80% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-05-29; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-31.

“Regarding access to the Internet: “Here's a prediction: in five years, a UN convention will enshrine network access as a human right.”" —Cory Doctorow ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2014-05-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-05-31.

The sun will come out tomorrow. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-30; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-30.

I will pass advanced on the algebra sol. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by cobalt on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-06-07; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-30.

I will get Bastion today. ( 92% confidence )

Created by isaacjw on 2014-05-30; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by isaacjw on 2014-05-30.

I will play Ranya the song Lonely Press Play within a week from now. ( 70% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-30.

Less than 33% of seats in the new European Parliament will be taken by parties who are part of officially eurosceptic groups. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-27; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-05-30.

The Reading Rainbow Kickstarter will reach its goal. ( 90% confidence )

Created by alecbrooks on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by alecbrooks on 2014-05-29.

The Reading Rainbow Kickstarter will reach its goal in 24 hours. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by alecbrooks on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-05-29; judged right by alecbrooks on 2014-05-29.

I will email my voice lesson info in on time. ( 90% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-05-26; known on 2014-06-02; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-28.

Grand Theft Auto 5 to be released on PC before April 2014 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Omid on 2013-09-18; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by wraith on 2014-05-28.

Jess will have written goals by end Feb 2014. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by waveman on 2014-05-28.

The economist formerly known as 'The Blade of Vengeance" will read in full “The Crash Course” by end of 27 May 2014 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2014-04-27; known on 2014-05-28; judged right by waveman on 2014-05-28.

Van Gaal to be next Manchester United manager ( 70% confidence )

Created by dgray on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-08-15; judged right by dgray on 2014-05-28.

Scott's next post will be whining about feminist responses to Elliot Rodgers. It will contain an epistemically weak response from some sort of manosphere type “for balance, because I do not trust my readers” but also a reassurance that feminism is the rea ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Oligopsony on 2014-05-26; known on 2014-05-29; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-05-27.

UKIP wins most votes in the UK European Parliament elections ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26.

Labour wins most votes in the UK European Parliament elections ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26.

Conservatives win most votes in the UK European Parliament Elections ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26.

Lib Dem wipeout in the UK European Parliament elections ( 50% confidence )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-05-25.

Laura will come over today ( 98% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-05-26; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-25.

I will finish Night Circus by Saturday. ( 80% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-05-18; known on 2014-05-24; judged wrong by cobalt on 2014-05-25.

A Presidential election will occur in Ukraine by June 5th or a Russian invasion of Ukraine will occur. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-21; known on 2014-06-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-05-25.

Kass will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, attorney) ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-25.

Spencer will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, “the cochran who doesn't suck”) ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-25.

[mredactedw] will get a 4.0 next semester. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-24.

I will get a 4.0 next semester. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-24.

Woo will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, tae kwon do-er) ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-24.

Trish will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, pilates instructor) ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-24.

Trish will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, pilates instructor) ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-24.

Tony will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, cop) ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged right by mad on 2014-05-24.

I will try to get my company to use their own implementation of predictionbook as an internal prediction market and will fail to convince even 25% of employees that this would be a good idea ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ciil on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-05-23; judged right by ciil on 2014-05-23.

By 2014 scientists will come up with the discovery of the evolution of some animals that look like humans. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by puya on 2011-05-09; known on 2014-05-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-05-22.

On May 20, 2014, Brienne will still be free of social anxiety. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by briennestrohl on 2014-04-20; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-05-21.

Statistics

Judged Predictions