Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Indiana Pacers beat Washington Wizards in Game 2. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-08; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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My math teacher will ask me to do something for Friday. ( 92% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by cobalt on 2014-05-07.
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MIRI will not win the $250K prize from SVGives ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-07.
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Hiroki Kuroda pitches less than 6 innings against the Angels. ( 20% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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Dave Robertson pitches tonight. ( 30% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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The Spurs and Trailblazers combine to score more than 180 points in Game 1. ( 92% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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The Spurs and Trailblazers combine to score more than 220 points in Game 1. ( 33% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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The Blackhawks and Wild combine to score fewer than 7 goals. ( 85% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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The Blackhawks and Wild go into overtime in Game 3. ( 36% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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Hiroki Kuroda pitches at least 8 innings against the Angels. ( 15% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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Clayton Kershaw gives up 4 ER or more (5/6/2014) ( 5% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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The Yankees score at least 1 run tonight (5/6/2014) ( 92% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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Miami Heat beat Brooklyn Nets in Game 1 ( 70% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-06; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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I will get a haircut today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by cobalt on 2014-05-07.
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Russia will face economic sanctions by mid- 2014 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-06-15; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-06.
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Twinkies contain between 150 and 500 calories each. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-06; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-05-06.
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Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was struck by a meteorite causing rapid disintegration. Alternatively, aircraft lengthening redesign gave way causing rapid disintegration. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-11; known on 2014-04-30; judged wrong by procran on 2014-05-05.
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I will go to choir tomorrow. ( 75% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-05-03; known on 2014-05-04; judged right by etarletons on 2014-05-04.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky retracts or significantly edits one of the posts in the quantum physics sequence in the next two years. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-05-03; known on 2014-05-03; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-05-04.
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I will reach the 2500 achievement points level in fewer than 12 days ( 75% confidence )
Created by bibliophile221B on 2014-04-29; known on 2014-05-11; judged right by bibliophile221B on 2014-05-03.
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Tomorrow I will be asked/invited to do something outside of the house that is not grocery shopping. ( 30% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-05-02; known on 2014-05-03; judged right by etarletons on 2014-05-03.
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From May 2014 to April 2015 (inclusive), Microsoft will not ship any free security patches or hotfixes for Windows XP. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-15; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-01.
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Jefra will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, pagent girl) ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-01.
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Spencer will be voted out on this episode of Survivor: Cagayan ( 75% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-01.
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I will make 1 or more predictions a day through the 1st of May ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-01; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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I will make 1 or more predictions a day through the 1st of May ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-01; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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I will make 1 or more predictions a day through the 1st of May ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-01; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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I will make 1 or more predictions a day through the 1st of May ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-01; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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I will make 1 or more predictions a day and remember to check them off on HabitRPG through the end of April ( 95% confidence )
Created by bibliophile221B on 2014-04-26; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2014-05-01.
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I will buy a car before graduating college. ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-12; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-05-01.
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Rotten tomato score for Ender's game is between 12 and 98% ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-05-01; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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Rotten tomato score for ender's game is between 25 and 45 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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Will run into friend on their way to work ( 5% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-04-29; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30.
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Friend's girlfriend will be at house when I get there ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-04-29; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30.
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get to friend's house in morning, they will still be there. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-04-29; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30.
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Sheep Marketplace will not be operating in 6 months ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-04-30.
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BMR will not be operating in 6 months ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-04-30.
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I will read 12 books before 2015. ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-29.
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i will finish chapter three today ( 89% confidence )
Created by Flipnash on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-04-29; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2014-04-29.
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I will be able to do 10 sprints to the top of the hill near my house in 15 minutes including returns but not counting the last return. By end October. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-29.
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One of my 2 friends will be wearing jeans when I go to meet them. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-27; known on 2014-04-28; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-28.
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In worm, Eidolon did not create the Endbringers subconsciously or otherwise. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2014-04-28.
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In worm, Eidolon did not create the Endbringers subconsciously or otherwise. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2014-04-28.
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In worm, Eidolon did not create the Endbringers subconsciously or otherwise. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2014-04-28.
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Jeremiah will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, model) ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-27.
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R will submit picks on Fantasy UFC for UFC172 ( 80% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-04-23; known on 2014-04-27; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-27.
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30 Rock episode 1 they go to Burger King after the restaurant. ( 75% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-04-27; known on 2014-04-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-04-27.
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I will go with my friend to California this week. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-25; known on 2014-04-28; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-26.
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I will look at my phone right after getting up and it will be between 5 and 6. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-23; known on 2014-04-23; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-04-23.
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David Moyes will not be Manchester United manager at the end of January 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-03-18; known on 2015-02-01; judged right by dgray on 2014-04-23.