Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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LJ will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, bartender) ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-22.
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I will lose the game today, (other than within an hour of predicting this) ( 70% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-21; known on 2014-04-22; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-21.
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Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2014-04-06; known on 2014-04-20; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2014-04-21.
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I will be able to do 12 full range pull-ups with hands at shoulder width by mid 2014. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by waveman on 2014-04-20.
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CIV PBF 88 : Arabia wins ( 60% confidence )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-10; judged right by Osuniev on 2014-04-19.
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The website namemydaughter.com will prove to be viral marketing or to have some other kind of hidden motive. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2014-04-18.
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I will do 8-12 pomodoros on April 16. ( 55% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-18; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-04-18.
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I will waste less than 60 minutes on April 16. ( 50% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-17; judged right by from3004 on 2014-04-17.
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424 HW #7 will take 4 or fewer pomodoros ( 85% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-17; judged right by from3004 on 2014-04-16.
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I will wake up at 7am April 16. ( 50% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-16; judged right by from3004 on 2014-04-16.
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Mh370 black box discovered ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by procran on 2014-04-06; known on 2014-04-15; judged wrong by procran on 2014-04-15.
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David Brin will respond to my comment on his Goodreads blogs within 7 days. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-02; known on 2014-04-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-14.
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CoffeeScript infrastructure deployment script will be functional within 72 hours of development time ( 80% confidence )
Created by schmatz on 2014-04-07; known on 2014-04-12; judged right by schmatz on 2014-04-13.
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Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-12; known on 2014-04-12; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-12.
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Australia will win TUF:Nations Canada VS Australia (Welterweight) ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-11.
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Australia will win TUF:Nations Canada VS Australia (Welterweight) ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-11.
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Australia will win TUF:Nations Canada VS Australia (middleweight) ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-11.
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Morgan will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, ex-cheerleader) ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-11.
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http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/09/dermatology-pop-quiz/ 2 is false ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Benquo on 2014-04-10; known on 2014-05-02; judged wrong by Benquo on 2014-04-11.
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http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/09/dermatology-pop-quiz/ 1 is false ( 50% confidence )
Created by Benquo on 2014-04-10; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Benquo on 2014-04-11.
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Microsoft will continue extended support of Windows XP past the April 8, 2014 deadline. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-12-23; known on 2014-04-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-10.
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Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-10; known on 2014-04-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-10.
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After a month, my IUD insertion will have been deemed successful (i.e. it will not have fallen out or caused some sort of medical complication) ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-04-09; judged right by mad on 2014-04-09.
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The CAQ will be the official opposition after the 2014 Quebec elections. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-07; known on 2014-04-08; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-04-09.
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The PLQ will win the April 2014 Quebec elections. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-28; known on 2014-04-08; judged right by Mati on 2014-04-09.
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Mike will come to Danny Brown with me. ( 60% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-04-07; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-04-07.
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I will not be feeling aftereffects from my IUD insertion in a month (cramps, bleeding) ( 90% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-04-06; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-07.
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“In five years, oil will be uncompetitive with biofuel, even at $50 per barrel, though oil will take longer to decline in price.” —Vinod Khosla ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2014-04-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-04-04.
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Richard Walsh will compete in the finale fight for TUF: Nations (Welterweight) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-24; known on 2014-04-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-04.
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Sarah (the cop/MMA fighter on the Brawn tribe) will win Survivor: Cagayan ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-04.
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I think I will sleep before 12 PM. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02; known on 2014-04-03; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-04.
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Someone will send my at least 10 USD or CAD on PayPal (mathieu.roy.37@gmail.com) before April 2nd 2014. ( 1% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2014-04-03; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-04-03.
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Teddy and I will go see Cashmere Cat. ( 70% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-03-23; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-04-03.
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Teddy and I will go see Cashmere Cat. ( 70% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-03-23; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-04-03.
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I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2015-01-01 00:00 UTC ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-03.
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Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 will be found before March 22nd 2014 (or the resting place will be narrowed down to a smaller than 100 square km area of ocean) ( 70% confidence )
Created by dusk on 2014-03-16; known on 2014-03-22; judged wrong by mfb on 2014-04-02.
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MH370 (or the wreckage) will be found by 1 April. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by procran on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-04-02.
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HPMoR: I will finish translating 22nd chapter (into Polish) by the end of March ( 60% confidence )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by jkadlubo on 2014-04-02.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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a post it will fall down ( 70% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-25; known on 2014-03-24; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-04-02.
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The drawing on the board is a depiction of the fat man dilemma. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-02; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-02.
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I will make an A in Improv. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-01.
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Manchester United will fail to score enough goals against Olympiakos tonight. ( 99% confidence )
Created by Nachlader on 2014-03-19; known on 2014-03-19; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-04-01.
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NYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of March. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-01.
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Cannabis will be legal in 8 different states. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by spund on 2013-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-01.
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“By the end of the weekend, Europe’s biggest war since 1945 will have begun or Putin will have started to send the troops on the border home,” -John Schindler ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-03-28; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-01.
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No US sitting US Republican Senator who is up for reelection in 2014 will come out publicly in favor of gay marriage before April 1, 2014. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-01.
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Eliezer will publish at least one HPMOR chapter this month. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by on 2014-04-01.
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“the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore ( 12% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-01.