Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Animal Charity Evaluators will publish their analysis on Joey and Xio's leafleting study by the end of March. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-20.
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Joey and Xio's study will find further evidence in favor of vegetarianism advocacy ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-20; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-20.
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According to http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/03/18/289013884/who-had-richer-parents-doctors-or-arists artists have richer parents than doctors. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-20; known on 2014-03-20; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-20.
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babysit tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-18; known on 2014-03-19; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-03-19.
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J'Tia Taylor will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, nuclear engineer) ( 1% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-19.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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Manchester United will not make it to the next round of the Champions league ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dgray on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-03-20; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-03-19.
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My friend J.S. will consider Notch's game 0×10c to have been one of the best games of all time within two years. ( 85% confidence )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-04-04; known on 2014-04-03; judged wrong by quicklystarfish on 2014-03-19.
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make cookies ( 80% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-03-18; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-18.
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clean room tomorrow ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-03-16; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-18.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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Canada will win the 2014 paralympics. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-03-17; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-03-17.
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I'll go see Palmer's YCTIWY ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-19; known on 2014-03-20; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-17.
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today will be fun ( 100% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-03-11; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-17.
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fold towels ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-15; known on 2014-03-16; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-17.
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see ian this week ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-16; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-17.
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I will be admitted to at least one medical school for the class of 2014. ( 75% confidence )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-03-15; judged right by mavant on 2014-03-15.
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see Ian friday ( 80% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-12; known on 2014-03-15; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-15.
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HPMoR: I will finish translating 21st chapter (into Polish) by the end of March ( 90% confidence )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-15.
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I will not know the score of the hockey's final before I watch it. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-03-16; judged right by Mati on 2014-03-14.
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HP MoR: That Bellatrix is Black not Lestrange will be important. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-06; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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“[O]n March 14th 2014 there will not be any Apple hardware products for sale at JB Hi-Fi stores” Ruslan Kogan ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-28; known on 2014-03-14; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2014-03-14.
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HP MoR: That Bellatrix is Black not Lestrange will be important. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-06; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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I will finish the CS pset by 3AM ( 50% confidence )
Created by entropy on 2014-03-12; known on 2014-03-13; judged wrong by entropy on 2014-03-13.
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Facebook front page will have less than 10% market share of Android phones by Jan 1 2014 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by phreeza on 2014-03-13.
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Arsenal will defeat Bayern Munich 3-1 ( 99% confidence )
Created by Nachlader on 2014-03-11; known on 2014-03-11; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-03-12.
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today will be fun ( 100% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-03-11; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-17.
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A new movement will feature in at least one of the workouts that comprises this year's Crossfit Games Open ( 51% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-03-25; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2014-03-11.
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I will see Nashwa next weekend. ( 80% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-03-11; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-03-11.
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I will get to class before the people walking. ( 99% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-03-11; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-10.
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There will be elections in the province of Quebec this year. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-05; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by Mati on 2014-03-10.
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I'll start a new water withing a few hours ( 90% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-08; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-09.
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Activities: FC ( 95% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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Sport: TJ ( 94% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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Community: SA ( 25% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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Community: PB ( 36% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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Community: TP ( 39% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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PG Education ( 50% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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JK President ( 22% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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KA President ( 36% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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PG President ( 42% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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PG President ( 42% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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90% turnout CI: [3000,5650] ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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Anna will order eggs instead of pancakes. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-09.
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Twitch Plays Pokemon will make it to Blackthorn City within 24 hours of this prediction. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-08; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-09.
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2013: Chinese household consumption <=35% of Chinese GDP —Michael Pettis ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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Valuewalk, Forbes: Nokia will sell its mobile business in 2013 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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Bitcoin will drop in value over next week ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jedijuggler on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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I will know between 10 and 20 of the trick listed on this page: http://sahandsaba.com/thirty-python-language-features-and-tricks-you-may-not-know.html ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-09.
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I will drink tea tomorrow ( 80% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-07; known on 2014-03-08; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-08.