Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 2Q 2014. This means finishing the FX code and enhancing my futures code to support individual contracts. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12.
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I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 2Q 2014. This means finishing the FX code and enhancing my futures code to support individual contracts. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12.
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I will finish the equivalent of second year physics by end 3q 2014 Specifically I will have done the exercises from the special relativity, electromagnetism and thermal physics texts. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-09-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-11-02.
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finish quest by end of week ( 80% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-26; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by reesarose on 2014-04-01.
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stiles is the spirit? ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-23; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by reesarose on 2014-04-01.
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go to states ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-22; known on 2014-03-30; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-04-01.
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Burpees will feature in at least one of the workouts that comprises this year's Crossfit Games Open ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-02-03; known on 2014-03-31; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2014-03-31.
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I will drop out of college. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2014-03-31; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-03-31.
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LitSoc gets affiliated. ( 84% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-21; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-31.
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After deleting 2048 cookie, game state will be lost; will seem to be not saved anywhere else. ( 67% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-31; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-31.
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Alexis will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, college student) ( 4% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-31.
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Lindsey will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, hairstylist) ( 8% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-31.
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I will make a B- or higher in CS110: Principles of Computer Systems. ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-03-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-30.
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I will make an A or higher in PWR. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-03-25; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-30.
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There will be pictures of the sandcastle from xkcd 1190 online within a year ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-03-31; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2014-03-30.
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go somewhere ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-23; known on 2014-03-29; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-30.
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March 2014 hard drive prices: 50-58 GB/$ ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2014-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-03-28.
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I will be doing my 1.5km course with a 30kg back pack by end April 2014. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by waveman on 2014-03-28.
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Crimea or similar territory to be recognized by at least one country as not part of Ukraine by 2016-01-01. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Silver on 2014-03-27.
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2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-03-27.
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I will resolve the CFAR/YEI April 11th conflict in favor of YEI. ( 70% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-26; known on 2014-03-27; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-03-27.
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Get over cold by monday ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-19; known on 2014-03-24; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-03-26.
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do something during spring vaca ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-12; known on 2014-03-24; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-03-26.
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Clojure 1.6 will be released before 2015 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-03-25.
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Denison will paint over all of the current graffiti within three weeks. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-03-31; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-25.
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This thread (http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/2173oq/what_movie_has_the_best_opening_scene/) will have “Up” as one of the top five answers. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-25; known on 2014-03-25; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-25.
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Created by yeltsin on 2014-03-21; known on 2014-03-16; judged wrong by yeltsin on 2014-03-24.
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Cliff will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, ex-NBA) ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-24.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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Within two years, at least one exoplanet less than 3 Earth masses will be discovered and verified orbiting within the habitable zone of its star. (Habitable zone=liquid water likely) ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-11-12; judged right by dk on 2014-03-23.
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I will make at least ten public predictions on PredictionBook in the month of November (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook). ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-23.
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Apple won't sue Google over Android before end of 2013 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by dk on 2014-03-23.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, Bernanke will continue as Fed chairman ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-02-15; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-23.
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Froyo will get broken into by the end of the week. ( 60% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-13; known on 2014-03-22; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-23.
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I will finish chapter 10 of my textbook before going to sleep tonight. ( 35% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-03-20; known on 2014-03-21; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-03-22.
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Tablet Sales will not overtake PC sales by Jan 1 2014. (see http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/06/technology/as-new-ipad-debut-nears-some-see-decline-of-pcs.html?hpw) ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dk on 2014-03-21.
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Malian junta remains in power ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-21.
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Farhad Manjoo: Kindle to be free with Amazon Prime by end of 2013 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-21.
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Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by dk on 2014-03-21.
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Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-20; known on 2014-03-21; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-20.
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I will finish season five of breaking bad before I go to sleep tonight (4 episodes left at this time, I started watching yesterday morning) ( 55% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-03-18; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-03-20.
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I will watch at least two episodes of breaking bad before going to sleep tonight. ( 90% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-03-18; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-03-20.
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I will finish CS124 this term ( 90% confidence )
Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by entropy on 2014-03-20.
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I will get A's or A-'s in all my graded classes. ( 70% confidence )
Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by entropy on 2014-03-20.
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Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 2 months. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-05-22; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-20.
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Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 1 month. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-04-20; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-20.
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Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 1 month. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-04-20; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-20.
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Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 2 weeks. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-04-07; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-20.
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Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 1 week. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-03-26; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-20.