Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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West Brom will win against Manchester United ( 10% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-03-07; known on 2014-03-08; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-03-08.
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West Brom will draw against Manchester United ( 30% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-03-07; known on 2014-03-08; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-03-08.
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West Brom will lose to Manchester United ( 60% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-03-07; known on 2014-03-08; judged right by dgray on 2014-03-08.
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RL Grime's new collab with What So Not was played in Philly. ( 95% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-04-16; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-03-07.
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The AMC10B cut-off for AIME will be 120.0 ( 95% confidence )
Created by Nix on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by Nix on 2014-03-07.
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I will qualify for AIME on the 2014 AMC10B ( 42% confidence )
Created by Nix on 2014-02-19; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by Nix on 2014-03-07.
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Leena will agree with me (before March 7th, 2014) that we should start mining the moon. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-03-07.
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I complete the Irish translation of HabitRPG within 2 weeks. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-20; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-03-07.
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Brice will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, social worker) ( 8% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-06.
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I will not go to work on Friday ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by mad on 2014-03-06.
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I will not go to the music quiz on Thursday ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by mad on 2014-03-06.
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I will not go to the music quiz on Thursday ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by mad on 2014-03-06.
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Tomorrow will be a better day than today ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-06.
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I'll go visiting on Wednesday ( 60% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-04; known on 2014-03-05; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-06.
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My spine/back/chest will stop hurting within the week. ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-05; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-06.
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I will hear piano sometimes the next 7 days ( 80% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-26; known on 2014-03-05; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-06.
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Jesse will be elected House President for next year. ( 75% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-04; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-03-06.
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My IUD will be inserted successfully (i.e. i won't be in so much pain i ask them to stop / the doctor won't screw it up somehow) ( 99% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by mad on 2014-03-06.
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We will go over the fiscal cliff in some fashion but it wont be as bad as people say. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by rbhamilton@gmail.com on 2012-11-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-03-05.
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It was between 10am and 12pm when I woke up this morning ( 80% confidence )
Created by slackson on 2014-03-04; known on 2014-03-04; judged right by slackson on 2014-03-04.
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The link I'm about to click on goes to TVTropes. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-04; known on 2014-03-05; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-04.
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US govt will not default on its debt before Mar 1, 2014 ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by scrafty on 2014-03-04.
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it will rain in the next week ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-23; known on 2014-03-02; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-04.
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I'll see love friday or saturday ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-23; known on 2014-03-03; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-04.
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I'll be back to normal weight by March ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-01; known on 2014-02-28; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-03-04.
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Star Trek Into Darkness will win Best Visual Effects. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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The Hobbit will win Best Visual Effects. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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The Wind Rises will win Best Animated Feature Film. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Frozen will win Best Animated Feature Film. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Sandra Bullock will win Best Actress. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Meryl Streep will win Best Actress. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Leonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Chiwetel Ejiofor will win Best Actor. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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The Wolf of Wall Street will win Best Picture. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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American Hustle will win Best Picture. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Gravity will win Best Picture. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Her will win Best Picture. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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12 Years a Slave will win Best Picture. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Leo DiCaprio finally wins an Oscar this year. ( 55% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-03-03.
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The bill will be between $250 and $480. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Agora marketplace will be severely hacked or taken down within a week. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-03-03.
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There will be no snow this March in Champaign ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by flyingfox on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-03-02.
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I will have dinner with Nashwa on Saturday. ( 70% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-27; known on 2014-03-02; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-03-02.
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I will see Nashwa on Saturday night. ( 70% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-26; known on 2014-03-02; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-03-02.
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I will still be actively using HabitRPG on March 1, 2014. ( 60% confidence )
Created by mitodoteira on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by mitodoteira on 2014-03-02.
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NYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of February. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-01; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-03-01.
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Twitch Plays Pokémon will win the game (become Pokémon Champion) within 48 hours of this prediction. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-02; judged right by mad on 2014-03-01.
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The Beauty tribe will be the first tribe to vote a player off in the Survivor: Cagayan premiere ( 40% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-02-27; known on 2014-02-28; judged wrong by mad on 2014-02-28.
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Apple will announce Iphone 6 by the end of February. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jedijuggler on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-02-28; judged wrong by Jedijuggler on 2014-02-28.
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MtGox is insolvent. It currently holds less bitcoins or USD than the total sum of money shown to be deposited in it. ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-28.