Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Land a kickflip today ( 60% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-06; known on 2021-02-07; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-07.
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Personal, Productivity – I do two hours work for G by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-06.
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I'll still be sitting in this room in 1 minute. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-05; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-02-05.
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Personal, Productivity – I order replacement glasses by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-03; known on 2021-02-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-03.
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A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-28; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-02-03.
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Open table D&D game still going reasonably well in six months ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-02; known on 2021-02-02; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-02-02.
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Personal, Productivity – I sort out my wall calendar's labels by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-01; known on 2021-02-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-01.
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Donald Trump will win the electoral college votes ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by Liging on 2021-02-01.
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President Trump will stand down from the presidential office ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by BillEBrogan on 2020-11-12; known on 2020-11-13; judged right by Liging on 2021-02-01.
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COVID, UK – At least ten million doses of vaccine have been administered before the end of January 2021 in the UK. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-02-01.
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COVID, UK – Scotland has a return to in-person education in schools before the start of February. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-02-01.
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I will publish a paper this year ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-12-29; judged wrong by fandangos on 2021-02-01.
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I will see my grandmother in person this year ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-12-29; judged right by fandangos on 2021-02-01.
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I will see my sister in person this year ( 75% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-12-29; judged wrong by fandangos on 2021-02-01.
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I will graduate in the end of the year ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by fandangos on 2021-02-01.
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If Trump looses the electoral college votes, he will give up his post normally in January ( 91% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-02-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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Hungary will open borders before February ( 10% confidence )
Created by MartaK on 2020-11-02; known on 2021-01-31; judged wrong by MartaK on 2021-01-31.
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At least one bombing causes at least one death in the US before Jan 21st ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technillogue on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by technillogue on 2021-01-30.
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at least two government buildings in different states are occupied for at least an hour before jan 21st ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by technillogue on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by technillogue on 2021-01-30.
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A US government building is occupied for more than three hours ( 3% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by technillogue on 2021-01-30.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 3-6 deaths ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 7 for more deaths ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 7 for more deaths ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 7 for more deaths ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 3-6 deaths ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.
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On reflection, I'll decide to talk to Tsvi tonight. ( 8% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-01-27; known on 2021-01-28; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2021-01-28.
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2021 Portuguese presidential election – Abstention higher than 50% ( 60% confidence )
Created by LouisLC on 2020-06-06; known on 2021-01-25; judged right by LouisLC on 2021-01-26.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 7 for more deaths ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.
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My average estimated sleep time for week of Jan 16th will be 8 hours or greater ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-15; known on 2021-01-23; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-01-25.
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COVID, UK – At least five million doses of vaccine have been administered before the end of January 2021 in the UK. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-24.
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Politics, US – Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-05; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2021-04-02.
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COVID, US – A Carnival Cruise Lines cruise departs from the continental U.S on or before the 15th of January, 2021. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-24.
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Business – Netflix worldwide subscriptions reported in their Q4 2020 quarterly earnings report is less than 197 million. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-24.
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Business – Netflix worldwide subscriptions reported in their Q4 2020 quarterly earnings report is greater than than 210 million. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-24.
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Trump will not concede the election before inauguration day. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-14; known on 2021-01-22; judged right by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 3-6 deaths ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 1-2 deaths ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 0 deaths ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged right by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
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A US elected official or non-LEO civilian employee is killed by a Trump supporter in or near a government building ( 5% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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US dollar becomes an asset-backed currency under Trump's first term ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. ( 87% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Trump war with China, Trump removal, or delayed/non-existent elections by 2020. Details in comments. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-20; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Trump survives his presidency ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Trump will attempt to pardon himself. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-21.
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Trump will not be convicted by the Senate before January 20th ( 99% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-01-21.