PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

The Video about Magnus Carlsen retiring from Chess is an April Fool's Joke ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-03-31; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by sty.silver on 2021-03-31.

Hungary will open its borders back ( 10% confidence )

Created by MartaK on 2020-10-30; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by MartaK on 2021-03-31.

150 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered by June 1st (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/us or an alternative if this goes away). ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

100 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered in Biden’s first 100 days, i.e. as of April 30th, 2021 (as measured by this tracker: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

9 million first doses of COVID administered in NY as of June 1st, 2021 (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between April 1st and May 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 65% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-05-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between June 1st and July 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed on or after August 1st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 15% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between January 9th and March 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.

[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] >200 million. ( 1% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.

Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-31.

Trump creates “world peace” before leaving office ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.

< 2M coronavirus deaths ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.

Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-31.

Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-31.

Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-31.

Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for an additional chapter of my mathematics textbook by deadline. ( 82% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-29.

Personal, Productivity – I extend my Guesstimate model with farmed fish and cow welfare by deadline. ( 87% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-28.

The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-01; known on 2021-07-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-28.

Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for another paper by deadline. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-25.

Personal, Productivity – I make at least one Anki card for a paper I've read today. ( 92% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-24; known on 2021-03-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-25.

No one in the EA group will miss 3 weeks in a row ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by htaussig on 2021-03-22.

VVD will get more than 33 seats in the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 94% confidence )