conditional on looking for a house with nico/sarah/noel, i will end up moving into one with them with $600 or lower rent ( 30% confidence )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known on 2021-03-14; judged right by iterate-again on 2021-03-06.

COVID, UK – 13 million people have been vaccinated (at least one dose) by the 15th of February, in line with government targets. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-10; known on 2021-02-16; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-05.

there will be a Democratic Senate at least once by 2042 ( 96% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2043-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-03-03.

I will weight 67kg or less by End February 2021 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-03-01; judged right by waveman on 2021-03-02.

1-bed rent in Manhattan is at least 1% lower than it was in March 2019 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pdf on 2020-10-05; known on 2021-03-01; judged right by pdf on 2021-03-01.

2/26 Pokémon Presents – Sinnoh Remakes ( 50% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.

2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon Snap Release Date ( 50% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.

New Shepard to fly at least once in 2021. ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-02-25.

I receive a job offer from radix.bio ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technillogue on 2020-12-10; known on 2021-01-31; judged right by technillogue on 2021-02-24.

Will talk with Mali today ( 85% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-16; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-23.

Everyone will be at the EA meeting tomorrow ( 90% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-17; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-23.

Scott Alexander starts a Substack in 2021. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-02-23.

1 million first doses of COVID administered in NY as of February 1st, 2021 (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-02-24; judged right by krazemon on 2021-02-23.

Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in any country (either for people vaccinated or recovered) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sortega on 2020-04-06; known on 2021-06-16; judged right by sortega on 2021-02-22.

I will weigh 205 or more in the morning ( 75% confidence )

Created by pdf on 2020-09-25; known on 2021-02-22; judged right by pdf on 2021-02-22.

COVID, US – At least 53M Americans have received their first dose of vaccine by end of 28th February 2021. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-04; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.

SpaceX's Starship to do a flight at least 1 km up by February 20, 2021. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-02-22; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.

A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021) ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Liging on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-11-17; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.

Kim Kardashian and Kanye West will separate within two years. ( 67% confidence )

Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-23; known on 2022-07-23; judged right by JohnGreer on 2021-02-20.

Greater Melbourne area (or any part) will come out of stage 4 lockdown at or before 11.59pm on Wednesday 17 Feb 2021 ( 20% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-02-12; known on 2021-02-18; judged right by iterate-again on 2021-02-18.

Personal, Productivity – I get all my Anki cards done by deadline. ( 77% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-17; known on 2021-02-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-17.

Abi and I will still be good friends next month (talk at least once this month) ( 99% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-14; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-16.

Josh and I will still be good friends next month (talk at least once this month) ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-14; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-16.

Won't get the first EA Speaker I emailed ( 90% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-02-22; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-14.

Personal, Productivity – I read through a chapter of the Moral Uncertainty book by deadline. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-11; known on 2021-02-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-12.

I will make an appointment/ask to make an appointment with a therapist by 15th Feb 2021 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-15; known on 2021-02-15; judged right by iterate-again on 2021-02-11.

I'm going to strength train (in the sense of completing 5 sets of some barbell exercise), when I wake up tomorrow. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by EliTyre on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-06; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-02-10.