PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will complete chapter 1 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 9 hours. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01.

The honorarium I’ll receive for an hour long talk to be given tomorrow will be more than 126 USD in total value (i.e., including travel reimbursements, food, etc.) ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by papermachine on 2012-06-29; known on 2012-06-30; judged right by papermachine on 2012-06-30.

The honorarium I'll receive for an hour long talk to be given tomorrow will be between 75 and 125 USD in total value (i.e., including travel reimbursements, food, etc.) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by papermachine on 2012-06-29; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-06-30.

“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Jun 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-30.

My Anki flashcard deck will exceed 3,000 cards before July, 2012. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-30.

England will win Euro 2012 ( 6% confidence )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-06-29.

Holland will win Euro 2012 ( 12% confidence )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-06-29.

Germany will win Euro 2012 ( 18% confidence )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-06-29.

“The Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare” —jdgalt ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-06-28.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27; known on 2012-06-27; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-28.

I will read chapter V of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27; known on 2012-06-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-28.

For all x, if x is a comment in response to Luke's 'NEW GAME' comment and x contains at least 1 correct answer, then x will have positive karma at the prediction closing time. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27.

I will unsubscribe from Erfworld. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-07-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-06-26.

I will complete chapter 18 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 5% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.

I will complete chapter 17 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.

I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.

I will complete chapter 15 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.

I will complete chapter 14 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.

SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-06-25.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24.

I will complete chapter 9 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24.

Morsi will win Egypt's election ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-16; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-24.

Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.

I will complete chapter 13 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-06-24; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24.

I will apply for a job as a software developer. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-23.

I will get an alpha for the CATAM project on hypothesis testing ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-06-23.

I will get an alpha for the CATAM project on continued fractions ( 60% confidence )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-06-23.

I will get a 2:1 this year ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-06-23.

I will be get a first this year ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-06-23.

Miami Heat will win NBA championship in 2012 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-02; known on 2012-06-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-22.

For all x, if x is a comment in response to Luke's 'NEW GAME' comment and x contains at least 1 correct answer, then x will have positive karma at the prediction closing time. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27.

For all x, if x is a comment in response to Luke's 'NEW GAME' comment and x contains at least 1 correct answer, then x will have positive karma at the prediction closing time. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27.

Hazem Salah Abu Ismail will be the next Egyptian president. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by HamletHenna on 2012-03-25; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by HamletHenna on 2012-06-20.

Price of bitcoin to reach $10 before June 20. on MtGox ( 75% confidence )

Created by _W_ on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by _W_ on 2012-06-20.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.

I will complete chapter 9 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 8 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.

I will read chapter 2 of The Science of Conjecture within the next 8 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.

I will complete chapter 8 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 8 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.

I will read chapter 1 of The Science of Conjecture within the next 8 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.

Miami Heat will win game 4 of the NBA finals ( 65% confidence )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-20.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.

I will complete chapter 7 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.

I will complete chapter 12 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.

I will complete chapter 6 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.

I will complete chapter 11 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.

Syriza won't win the most votes (out of all the parties) in the Greek election ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-17; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-18.

Greece will have another election by end of June, 2012 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-18.

I will complete chapter 5 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 4 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.

I will complete chapter 10 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.