PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

“Gary Johnson to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.

'John Bolton to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012' ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.

“Michele Bachmann to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.

“Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.

Isaac will be upgraded to a hurricane ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-29.

I will finish and be happy with my rough draft of my Stanford essay by tomorrow evening. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Christopher on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-08-29; judged right by Christopher on 2012-08-29.

Writing about my English teacher will be the idea I stick with for my Stanford essay. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Christopher on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-08-29; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-08-29.

DNB/nicotine day 3: active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-08-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

Grognor will record >20 days of sleep quality data with melatonin use ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-05-31; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-08-28.

Tech Thoughts: Google Nexus 7 to sell 6-8 million units in 2012 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by roxton on 2013-01-11.

“By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.” ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

Australia will not have car factories by the end of the current recession. —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

“Holden will be the first car-maker to close its Australian factories during the current recession.” —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.

'Groupon goes on a buying binge & hits $3B in gross sales.' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.

'However, Android's gains will mostly be at the low end of the market; the iPhone will continue to outsell any single Android smartphone model by a wide margin.' —FtT ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.

'the United States has a historically hot summer 2011.' —orthonormal ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

“Copyright and patent issues will continue to be stalemated in Congress, with no major legislation on either subject.” —FfT ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-13; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.

'The market for Internet set-top boxes like Google TV and Apple TV will continue to be chaotic throughout 2011, with no single device taking a decisive market share lead. The big winners will be online services like Netflix, Hulu, and Pandora that work wi ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.

'A designer will have revenues of over one million US dollars with a single 3D printed product in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

'3D Systems will launch a 3D printing service for consumers in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

'3D printed products will win at least two Red Dot Design Awards in 2011' —Joris Peels ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

Tech Thoughts: Google Nexus 7 to sell 6-8 million units in 2012 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by roxton on 2013-01-11.

'I think Apple’s Macintosh Pro line of computers is dead.' —Robert X Cringely ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

The ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command will be dissolved on schedule. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2012-04-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

Michael Green did not have any explosives on him. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by RobFisher on 2012-04-27; known on 2012-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.

My chart will settle into a pattern of moderate underconfidence (each point's accuracy between 20% and 10% above confidence) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2012-05-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

Jack & Jill will earn 150% of its budget despite being a terrible film. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.

I will come to respect those people who endeavor to know systems of thought, fail, and yet still pretend comprehension/mastery when presenting the topic to others. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-06-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

GJP: #1087 Will Amr Moussa win the next Egyptian presidential election? ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

Supreme Court will uphold individual mandate in “ObamaCare”. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by DetroitDan on 2012-04-24; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

SCOTUS will strike down only the individual mandate and leave the rest of Obama healthcare law intact ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

reddit.com/r/GEB/ will fizzle out and not finish GEB. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ZrCa on 2011-12-28; known on 2012-07-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

DNB/nicotine day 2: active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-08-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

Ron Paul won't have significant speaking role in 2012 Republican convention ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27.

Second edition of 3DS out by Christmas 2012 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by Jach on 2012-08-27.

All 9 wounded bystanders in NY Midtown incident were shot by the cops rather than the original shooter ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25; known on 2013-08-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-26.

Bruce Springsteen will play “She's the One” on August 24. ( 60% confidence )

Created by fistpo on 2012-08-04; known on 2012-08-25; judged right by fistpo on 2012-08-26.

Shirley frozen or similarly harmed by magic at end of Fate/Zero Ep 18. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-08-26; known on 2012-08-26; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-08-26.

Apple and Samsung won't settle before the jury verdict ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25.

DNB/nicotine: 1: active? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-25; known on 2012-08-25; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-25.

LW user JaneQ is LW user private_messaging (is LW user Dmytry). ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2012-07-23; known on 2013-07-02; judged right by Grognor on 2012-08-24.

Email will be sent once ( 90% confidence )

Created by Wes on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-08-21; judged wrong by Wes on 2012-08-21.

Emails are sent twice ( 90% confidence )

Created by Wes on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-08-21; judged right by Wes on 2012-08-21.

“Will Rick Perry to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012? —Intrade” ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2012-08-27; judged wrong by nohat on 2012-08-21.

Mitt Romney will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged right by nohat on 2012-08-21.

“Image recorded by NASA Curiosity on Mars surface to be published in 2012” -ipredict ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21.

Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year, due to SDr's petition campaign. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-20.

Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-20.

I will average at least one prediction per week on PredictionBook for the next year. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-17.

I will pass the written exam for the 'Crime Analyst' position on 08/16/2012. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-10; known on 2012-08-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-16.

Statistics

Judged Predictions