PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Ecuador will accept Julian Assange for asylum before 2014 ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-16.

I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 6 weeks. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-16.

Including consoles, Diablo 3 will have lower sales than Skyrim (1st month sales = 7 million) ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15.

Lebron will continue to hog ball control in the 2012 olympics (measured by Chris Paul won't have more than 1 assist / per game more than Lebron) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.

Usain Bolt will leave a positive doping test before or during the London Olympics ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.

Usain Bolt breaks previous 100m world record during 2012 Olympics ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.

Michael Phelps will not solely win the most gold medals in 2012 (he may tie, but won't win the most outright). ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.

Anne Romney's horse will place in 2012 Olympics dressage competition. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-07-28; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.

App.net will try to find a way to get money from people who have pledged at join.app.net, even if they don't hit their $500K goal. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by aaronsw on 2012-08-09; known on 2012-08-20; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-08-12.

Jeb Bush will be Mitt Romney's VP pick ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-24; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-11.

Dwight Howard will go to New Jersey Nets ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-11; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-11.

GB will out-medal Aus in the 2012 olympic games ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-05-20; known on 2012-08-11; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-08-11.

Greece will exit the euro within the next 2 months ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-06-11; known on 2012-08-11; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-08-11.

Mitt Romney will not pick a minority or woman or non-Christian or atheist or unmarried or gay person as VP (i.e. no surprises!) ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-08-11.

During 2012 I will be actively involved in some activist activity. Eg MC. ( 35% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.

I will have completed two masters level AI courses at ANU or equivalent ( 30% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-11-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.

I have comprehensive investment models for individual stocks. Evidence: details of models and research which developed them. Fully implemented and trading. ( 50% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.

I will have basic stock trading model done, with initial trades by this date. ( 50% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-09-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.

I will have completed a project that is useful that uses some AI technology. ( 65% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by waveman on 2012-08-08.

EUR/USD on or below 1.23 on 2012-08-07 12:00 UTC. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by clemux on 2012-08-06; known on 2012-08-07; judged wrong by clemux on 2012-08-07.

EUR/USD on or below 1.22 on 2012-08-07 12:00 UTC. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by clemux on 2012-08-06; known on 2012-08-07; judged wrong by clemux on 2012-08-07.

The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) at least until Curiosity lands on Mars. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-06.

The Curiosity rover will successfully land on Mars. ( 70% confidence; 14 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-06.

Missy Franklin will win 4 or more gold medals ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06.

Usain Bolt won't win 100m gold medal in 2012 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06.

Usain Bolt will win the 100m gold medal in the 2012 Olympics. ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-27; known on 2012-08-05; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06.

I will apply to at least 1 graduate school by the end of the summer. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Primeval on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by Primeval on 2012-08-02.

Bloom & Speak Bilingual Tx, will be operable by 2012-8-1 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Primeval on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-08-01; judged right by Primeval on 2012-08-02.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid within the next 90 days. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-02.

I will have achieved intermediate level on all my one remaining weightlifting lift as defined in my spreadsheet. ie Bench press 20 reps at 38kg. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-01.

I will have workable futures trading strategy in place. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-01.

I will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. Currently I am at about 15% Body Fat. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-07-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-07-31.

Chrome will be the most widely used browser during July 2012 according to StatCounter. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by faws on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged right by faws on 2012-07-31.

Zhou Tong hacked Bitcoinica's MtGox account in July 2012, and this is known before 2016 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-07-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-07-26.

Zynga will fall below $3 before June 1, 2013 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-12; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26.

I won't be able to find a >320gb external hard drive for my friend ( 75% confidence )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-07-26; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-07-26.

SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-07-26.

Dark Knight Rises will hold a score of 90% or greater on Rottentomatoes.com on July 25th. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-07-15; known on 2012-07-25; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-07-25.

I will be employed as lukeprog's research assistant in 6 months ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-07-25; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-25.

Salminen 2012's “reasoning abilities”/“reasoning skills” measure will be a matrix-style IQ/Gf/fluid intelligence test. ( 80% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-25.

US basketball team will beat Spain by less than 12 points tonight ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2012-07-26; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-07-25.

Japan will restart nuclear reactors before end of 2020 ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24.

If I donate blood today, then I will feel sick within 15 minutes from finishing. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-20; known on 2012-07-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-20.

“You will hear nothing about Google+ a year from now.” – Eliezer Yudkowsky (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2722976) ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ZrCa on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by ZrCa on 2012-07-19.

Turkey will invade Syria ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by modulus on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-07-15; judged wrong by modulus on 2012-07-15.

'Evolutionary Psychology: The New Science of the Mind' will arrive on or before 07/17/2012. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-17; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-15.

I will have uploaded a playable version of a computer game before the first of July 2012. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by antsan on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by antsan on 2012-07-13.

'Evolutionary Psychology: The New Science of the Mind' will arrive on or before 07/12/2012. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-13.

NY taxi fares will go up > 15% by end of the year. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-13.

The picture of an Intel processor on http://www.appliedrationality.org/rationality/ is under copyright and was used without permission. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by papermachine on 2012-07-03; known on 2013-01-03; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-07-11.