PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will complete chapter 4 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.

I will complete chapter 9 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.

I will finish Learn Python the Hard way by the end of the School Year ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-04-30; known on 2012-06-17; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-06-17.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-15; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-16.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots within the next 150 days. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-09-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-15.

No goal will have been scored after 10 minutes in the Spain-Ireland football match on 2012-06-14 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by Leo on 2012-06-15.

I will score over 80% aggregate on my finals. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-06-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-06-15.

I will score over 60% aggregate on my finals. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-06-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-06-15.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0fyO6ypVYI This super-awesome YouTube video will be taken down by the end of the year. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Grognor on 2012-06-14.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 5 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-06-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14.

I will complete my geometry flashcard deck and merge it with my master deck within the next 5 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-06-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14.

I will read chapter V of GEB within the next 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-06-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14.

Gwern will get the matrix IQ test data from Fitzgerald 2012 —shminux ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-06-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-14.

I will read chapter IV of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-06-13; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-06-13; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13.

The movie Battleship will do worse than expected (4wk gross < 107.2m per HSX) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-12.

The Dictator (movie with Sasha Baren Cohen) will do better than expected (measured by 4 wk US gross > $68m now on HSX) ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-06-12.

I will read chapter IV of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-12; known on 2012-06-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-12.

I will complete chapter 8 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-12; known on 2012-06-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-12.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-12; known on 2012-06-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-12.

I will complete chapter 8 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-11; known on 2012-06-11; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-11.

Nadal wins the 2012 French Open ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged right by chimpsky on 2012-06-11.

I will read chapter III of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-11; known on 2012-06-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-11.

One or more people from the studio cohort (other than me) will contribute to the #utsapoc feed on the http://utsapocalypse.net/ site before the end of term ( 49% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-11; known on 2012-06-11; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-06-11.

One or more people from outside the studio cohort (other than me) will contribute to the #utsapoc feed on the http://utsapocalypse.net/ site before the end of term. ( 51% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-11; known on 2012-06-11; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-06-11.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-11; known on 2012-06-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-11.

The “top contributor” for Humble Bundle V will equal or exceed $10000. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-06-15; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-06-11.

Rutaesomn will offer to send me some free pills. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-10.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will play a 5-set match this sunday (Australian Open: men's final). ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by chimpsky on 2012-06-10.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will play a 5-set match this sunday (Australian Open: men's final). ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by chimpsky on 2012-06-10.

I will complete chapter 8 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10.

I will read chapter II of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10.

Spain will officially seek a EU bailout this weekend ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-08; known on 2012-06-11; judged right by chimpsky on 2012-06-09.

“Kevin Rudd will depart as Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs before 1 July 2012.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-06-09.

The Los Angeles Kings will win this year's Stanley Cup by a 4-0 victory over New Jersey Devils in the final series currently underway. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-06-07; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2012-06-07.

RML “2013 will deploy on the 8th of June” ( 60% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-06-09; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-06-07.

http://dkmvs.com/ will rank #1 on Google searches for “dick moves” in Australia ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by scott.arbeitman on 2012-05-02; known on 2012-06-06; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2012-06-06.

I will read chapter I and II of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-06; known on 2012-06-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-06.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-06; known on 2012-06-06; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-06.

“The Internet will become overloaded, causing brownouts and then outright gridlock. From 2012, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy” —Ted Ritter ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-06-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-06.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-05; known on 2012-06-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-05.

I will complete chapter 7 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-05; known on 2012-06-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-05.

Not including consoles, Diablo 3 will have lower sales than Starcraft 2 (measured by 1st month sales – Starcraft 2 sold 3 million units). ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-06-05.

Nokia's share price will fall by 50% in the next two years ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Michael Stevens on 2011-08-22; known on 2013-08-22; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-05.

Avengers will outgross Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 (global box office > 1.32b) ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-05.

A lot of people will be surprised by a new ILS Mortgage and a new Investment for Pension Funds when it happens before June 2012. This will stop people from worrying about interest and inflation rates as far as these new products are concerned. ( 99% confidence; 8 comments )

Created by EdwardCDIngram on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-04.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-06-04; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-04.

I will complete chapter 6 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-06-04; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-04.

Rashi will score over 80% on her boards. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-06-04.

Statistics

Judged Predictions