PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will complete my Anki physics deck and merge it with my master deck within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-05-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16.

Major winter storm in the southeast before summer 2012. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by smijer on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-05-16; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-05-16.

I will complete chapter 16 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-05-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16.

In 6 months I'll have a visible sixpack. ( 73% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-08-02; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-05-16.

I will finish a second draft of my article before my advisor meeting tomorrow. ( 30% confidence )

Created by papermachine on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-05-04; judged right by papermachine on 2012-05-15.

Yahoo will change CEO's before end of 2012 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13.

“From 2008 to 2011, sales of professional and personal service robots more than double – from 5.5 million to over 11.5 million.” ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13.

I will retest my IQ in 60 days and it will be at least 5 points greater than it is today. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-09; known on 2012-05-08; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-11.

Jeremy Lin will not return to the NBA this season. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-05-11; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-05-11.

Philadelphia will get past the first round of the 2012 NBA playoffs ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-05-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-11.

Death Note: Equestria: Spike is L ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-10.

Jeg kommer til Korea inden sommer. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by OptiMind on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by OptiMind on 2012-05-09.

Jeg kommer til Korea inden sommer. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by OptiMind on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by OptiMind on 2012-05-09.

I will complete chapter 1 of Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-08; known on 2012-05-08; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-08.

I will complete chapter 10 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 8 hours. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-06; known on 2012-05-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-07.

I will reply to Kawoomba's comment (http://www.reddit.com/r/DebateReligion/comments/t5svm/to_all_the_rational_is_framed_by_the_reasonable/c4k5xk8) ( 98% confidence )

Created by khafra on 2012-05-04; known on 2012-05-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-05-07.

The margin of victory in the French election will be less than 5 points ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-07.

Knicks will be swept in the first round of NBA playoffs ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-05-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-05-06.

Nicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-05-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-06.

By 12am tonight, I will have written my HIS paper. ( 70% confidence )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-05-05; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05.

Requesting facebook password for a job will be against the law in at least 1 state or against federal laws/regulations by end of 2013 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05.

Apple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by crlosg2 on 2009-05-31; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05.

The twenty under twenty program will accept more than twenty fellows this year. ( 10% confidence )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-23; known on 2012-05-02; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2012-05-05.

I will play multiplayer UT2004 for over 4 hours before 2012-09 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-05-05.

A game project which is non-video will raise more than $100,000 on Kickstarter by August 31, 2012 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by richardbliss on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by roxton on 2012-05-04.

AZEALIA BANKS – 212 FT. LAZY JAY will reach 5 million youtube views by the end of 2012. ( 70% confidence )

Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by fork on 2012-05-02.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-02; known on 2012-05-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-02.

http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days. Edit: Let's define “hit” as averaging > 1,000 page views a day for 3 days prior to the outcome being known. ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by scott.arbeitman on 2012-03-21; known on 2012-04-21; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2012-05-02.

Seth Roberts will not post a blog post on my (supposedly) null result for taking vitamin D in the morning. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-28; known on 2012-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-05-02.

I will complete chapter 9 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-02; known on 2012-05-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-02.

Google will actually produce Google Maps 8-Bit for NES (http://goo.gl/zA1BJ), and will announce this before the end of April. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-05-01.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 7 hours. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-01; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-01.

I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 7 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-01; known on 2012-05-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-01.

I will successfully complete an internet programming job (PHP/Rails/something like that) on oDesk and be paid for it before May 1. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-05-01.

20 or more people will show for the next Sydney CDG ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-04-30; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-05-01.

I predict that in the next two hours, I will finish 90% of the assignment I'm working on ( 90% confidence )

Created by Selector_3 on 2012-04-30; known on 2012-04-30; judged wrong by Selector_3 on 2012-04-30.

I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-30; known on 2012-04-30; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-30.

Mercs 4 will NOT have Peace/War mostly worked out by the end of April ( 70% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-05-01; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-04-30.

Coventry City FC will avoid relegation from the Championship League. ( 30% confidence )

Created by leejhancox on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-04-29; judged wrong by leejhancox on 2012-04-29.

I will visit China this summer ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-04-29.

Nobody will spend more than 4 hours in the studio space 3 days in a row between now and the first submission. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-03; known on 2012-04-13; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-29.

Of the 25 questions listed as unanswered within my specialties tonight on drugs.com that I answer, 15 of them will within 2 hours have a second answer which restates out of context my own, 5 that are just links to webmd.com or a similar site, 1 will be re ( 89% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-04-16; judged right by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-28.

gwern will present his next public opinion in a way which people will see only one of three ways: educated lie, pompous and self important, lost on them due to his penchant for the thesaurus. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-04-15; judged wrong by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-28.

Conditional on being offered a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI, I will accept. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-04-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-28.

gwern will have a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI within 3 months —shminux ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-04-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-28.

Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 7 &8: placebo then vitamin D ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-27; known on 2012-04-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-28.

I will get a chorus recall for Ruddigore ( 60% confidence )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-29; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-04-28.

I will get no recall at all for Ruddigore ( 20% confidence )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-29; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-04-28.

I will get a principal recall for Ruddigore ( 20% confidence )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-29; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-04-28.

I will obtain a CompTIA A+ certification before 2013. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-28.

Statistics

Judged Predictions