PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will pass exam 220-702 tomorrow. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-27; known on 2012-04-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-28.

Kevin Durant will win the NBA scoring title ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-24; known on 2012-05-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-04-27.

Three Stooges the movie will do better than expected (4 wk gross > $23m predicted by HSX) ( 67% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-18; known on 2012-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-04-26.

I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 4 hours. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-25; known on 2012-04-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-25.

HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Headmaster would allow Harry to exploit vulnerabilities of the magic Britain's economics to get out of debt (to Malfoy for his Hermione's “purchase”). ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-04-23.

HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Dumbledore will realize where and when did Harry had an opportunity not just to terrify Dementors, but to gain enough confidence in this achievement. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-04-23.

I will complete chapter 7 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-23; known on 2012-04-23; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-23.

I will run equal to or greater than 5 k before going to work tonight at an average rate of 7 mph or greater. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-23; known on 2012-04-23; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-23.

Manly Brawl on a Big Tree will not get blammed from the Newgrounds portal ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Grognor on 2012-04-21; known on 2012-04-22; judged right by Grognor on 2012-04-22.

I will finish reading any of my books to completion ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jach on 2012-03-16; known on 2012-04-16; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-21.

Princess Luna appears in 2-part wedding finale ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jach on 2012-04-02; known on 2012-04-21; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-21.

Moogy will finish both '&' and TDA02 before Mahoyo releases ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-04-21.

Moogy will finish one of TDA02 and '&' before Mahoyo releases ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-04-12; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-04-21.

Moogy will finish Mahoyo in one sitting on the day of release ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-04-21.

Moogy will finish both '&' and TDA02 before Mahoyo releases ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-04-21.

“Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by falenas108 on 2012-04-19.

I will sleep on the plane. ( 5% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-17; known on 2012-04-18; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-17.

Obama's world bank candidate, Jim Kim, will win the position ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-04-16.

My “Master Deck” for Anki will exceed 2,000 flash cards before June, 2012. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-16.

I will complete chapter 3 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 66% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-16; known on 2012-04-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-16.

I will complete chapter 2 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 6 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-04-15; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-15.

I will complete at least one of the new Stanford online classes (I signed up for 6 of them) ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Isaac on 2011-11-18; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-04-15.

GJP: #1078 Will a Japanese whaling ship enter Australia's territorial waters between 7 February 2012 and 10 April 2012? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-14.

GJP: #1082 Will William Ruto cease to be a candidate for President of Kenya before 10 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-14.

GJP: #1090 Before 13 April 2012, will the Turkish government officially announce that the Turkish ambassador to France has been recalled? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-14.

I will finish my physics Anki deck within the next 5 hours. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-04-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14.

My students will take me up on the offer of a case of beer for today's reviews. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13; known on 2012-04-13; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13.

9 or more students will present in today's reviews (my studio) ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13; known on 2012-04-13; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13.

I will enjoy tonight's dinner with a bunch of unkonwn friends. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-13.

I will complete chapter 3 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Learning Latin within the next 5 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.

>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.

I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Physics: Second Edition within the next 5 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.

I will complete chapter 1 of All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide: Fourth Edition within 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.

My scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level within a year. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-04-12.

GJP: #1086 Will Mohamed Waheed Hussain Manik resign or otherwise vacate the office of President of Maldives before 10 April 2012? ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-11.

I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Learning Latin within the next 10 hours. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-11; known on 2012-04-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-11.

I will complete the All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide: Seventh Edition within the next 2 weeks. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-11.

My husband won't sleep before 3am today because he can't finish his vedio clip for design. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-10; known on 2012-04-10; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-11.

Bobby Petrino will be the head coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks at the start of the 2012 season. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2012-04-10.

Santorum will win the Pennsylvania primary ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-04-10.

GJP: #1083 Will Marine LePen cease to be a candidate for President of France before 10 April 2012? ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-10.

I will be selected for OpenSNP's free 23AndMe genotyping. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-10.

I will complete chapter 26 of All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-10; known on 2012-04-10; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-10.

I will get 'pass' for the city assignment 01. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by williamycai on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-05-15; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-10.

I will have my movie 99% of my movie completed by this weekend! ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-08; judged wrong by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-10.

More than 10 people will show up for Ben's tutorial today. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-10; known on 2012-04-10; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-10.

i won't make any compliants this week and there will be no argument between me and my hubby until the easter holiday finished ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-02; known on 2012-04-18; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-10.

During the easter holidays, we will drive to a random forest and listen to owl city's 'fire flies' with all the car lights off…… ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-10.

I'm going to book sky diving and attened it during the easter holiday. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-08; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-10.

Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 5 & 6: placebo then vitamin D ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2012-04-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-09.

Statistics

Judged Predictions