PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

DNB/nicotine day 10: active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-12; known on 2012-09-12; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-12.

The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >100 comments ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrelon on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by beo_shaffer on 2012-09-12.

After making this prediction, the PredictionBook.com backend will allow me to transition it from public to private. ( 10% confidence )

Created by John Maxwell IV on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-09-11; judged wrong by John Maxwell IV on 2012-09-11.

DNB/nicotine day 9: active? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-09-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-11.

Matthew Wright will lose his pirateat40 bet, and will pay out in full ( 35% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2012-09-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-09.

Michelle Bachmann will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-09.

Rick Perry will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-09.

Newt Gingrich will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-09.

Ron Paul will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-09.

The British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jason on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-09.

Kate Evans (@aristosophy) will be revealed to be the blogger Sister Y, from The View from Hell ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Filipe on 2012-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Filipe on 2012-09-09.

'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.

“Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees.” ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-09-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-08.

Steel_ will have a custom capping business (specify a nootropic mix and have it delivered to you) running in a year. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2012-09-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-08.

Herman Cain’s actual vote share in the 2012 Republican primaries will be significantly lower than his averaged national poll numbers at the time (as indicated by standard measures of statistical significance). ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-08-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.

The TV show “Grimm” will be canceled in it's first season. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-07.

I will not end up buying premium cat food tomorrow… and my mew mews' have to eat supermarket grade food for the day.. ( 5% confidence )

Created by williamycai on 2012-09-06; known on 2012-09-08; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-07.

I won't use Facebook until Friday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-02; known on 2012-09-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-07.

DNB/nicotine day 8: active? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-07.

Titan Mare Explorer (TiME) will be chosen as next NASA Discovery standalone mission. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-06.

I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 5 weeks. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-07; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.

I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 7 weeks. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-21; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty within the next 120 days. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.

Kevin will not end up going to police academy of any sort within this year, ( 75% confidence )

Created by williamycai on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-01-16; judged right by williamycai on 2012-09-06.

Bloom & Speak Bilingual Tx will turn an accounting profit before 09/2012. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.

There will be 100 or more comments on our new site within 2 months of it launching ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-10-26; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-06.

I will spend more than 24 hrs in total in the studios between now and assignment due date. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by williamycai on 2012-04-03; known on 2012-12-04; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-06.

Bloom & Speak Bilingual Tx will turn an economic profit before 09/2012. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.

I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 2 months. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.

DNB/nicotine day 7: active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-06; known on 2012-09-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-06.

The show “Pan Am” will not be canceled during it's first season. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.

Steve R. and I will have produced at least one dubstep song within the next six months. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2012-03-14; judged wrong by Will Newsome on 2012-09-05.

My “Master Deck” for Anki will exceed 3,500 flash cards before September, 2012. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-20; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-05.

pirateat40 will win his bet with vandroiy that BTCST will not default, as judged by nanotube ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.

Greece will not default on or shave its bondholders. —Stefan Homburg ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-06-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.

(All) Wikipedias' total editor base will be >=95,000 in June 2012. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-04.

The “Counterexamples to Relativity” page will still exist on Conservapedia in one year ( 92% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.

The Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin ( 81% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.

PZ Myers will still identify as an atheist in one year. ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.

lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-04.

By default, the Command Prompt in Windows 8 RTM will be resizable (to an increase in width) by dragging the corner resizer. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-08-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.

Akin will quit before 1st September 2012 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2012-09-03.

Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-03.

“[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama's running mate” ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.

DNB/nicotine day 6: active? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-03.

Weight will be cheaper then square feet ( 75% confidence )

Created by Zach Aletheia on 2012-09-02; known on 2012-09-02; judged right by Zach Aletheia on 2012-09-02.

GJP: #1047 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Iran before 1 September 2012? ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-01.

DNB/nicotine day 5: active? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-01; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-01.

Fed will announce QE3 at Jackson Hole conference ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2012-09-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-31.

DNB/nicotine day 4: active? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-08-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-31.