PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Price of bitcoin to be less than $10 on MtGox at 00:01am on July 10. GMT ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by _W_ on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-07-10; judged right by _W_ on 2012-07-11.

I will reach base safely (reaching by way of an error counts) in at least half of my plate appearances in my softball double-header tonight. ( 82% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-07-10; known on 2012-07-11; judged right by Cy Fleming on 2012-07-11.

My “shaming” comment will have negative karma at the end of 1 week from now. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-10.

I will trim and reorganize my Anki deck within the next 8 hours. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.

Djokovic will win wimbledon 2012 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2012-07-09.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.

I will complete chapter 20 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 8 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.

I will complete chapter 6 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 8 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-08; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08.

I will complete chapter 19 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08.

I will complete chapter 5 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08.

Facebook will settle with Yahoo on its patent suit by end of 2012 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-07.

I will squat 1.5x my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with equal to or less than 1 minute rests before 2013. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-06.

John Edwards won't be retried ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-01; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.

Kevin Garnett will retire before the beginning of 2012-2013 season ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.

The movie Prometheus will do better than expected (4 wk gross > 168m @ HSX) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2012-07-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.

Shaq will not be Orlando Magic's GM ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-24; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.

In Diablo 3 patch 1.0.3, the life on hit/proc coefficient for Fists of Thunder's Thunderclap rune will be reduced. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by tadrinth on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-07-05; judged wrong by tadrinth on 2012-07-05.

The show “Once Upon a Time” will be canceled within it's first season. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-07-05.

“EY predicts that no five-sigma evidence of any Higgs boson will appear in the 2014 Review of Particle Physics.” ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-07-05.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours. ( 35% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04; known on 2012-07-04; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04.

I will complete chapter 18 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04; known on 2012-07-04; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04.

I will complete chapter 4 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 9 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04; known on 2012-07-04; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04.

My plane to Shanghai will crash tomorrow ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Christopher on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-07-03.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. ( 15% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.

I will complete chapter 3 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 8 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.

I will obtain at least one Java certification before the end of June, 30th, 2012. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker within the next 60 days. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-07-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.

I will read and complete every exercise within Learn Ruby the Hard Way before July 2012. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.

I will complete chapter 17 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 8 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.

I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.

AAPL share prices will reach $500 before July 2012 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sucrenoir on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02.

I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.

I will attend at least 1 Less Wrong meetup between now and 2013. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.

Spain will win Euro 2012 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2012-07-02.

I will have mastered physics to 2nd year Uni of Melbourne level ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-07-01.

The SCOTUS ruling on the Obama administration's health care reform law will be a 5-4 decision. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-07-01.

I will be using Emacs in 10 years ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.

I will be using Emacs in 10 years ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.

By 1st July 2012, I will have submitted at least 2 technical papers to peer-reviewed journals. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2012-07-01.

GJP: #1040 Will Aleksandr Lukashenko remain president of Belarus through 30 June 2012? ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-01.

“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-07-01.

The new exchange student from Sweden will last out the full school year. ( 75% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-01.

App Store revenues will break $10,000 for the first 30 days after app launch. ( 10% confidence )

Created by gsaines on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-06-26; judged right by gsaines on 2012-07-01.

The Skritter app will have launched in the app store with a subscription payment model. ( 75% confidence )

Created by gsaines on 2012-03-11; known on 2012-04-15; judged wrong by gsaines on 2012-07-01.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01.

I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01.

Greece will leave the Euro currency and return to the “Drachme” latest by mid 2012. ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by herb on 2011-11-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-07-01.

Kerala High Court hears a PIL against India's IT rules. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-07-01.