PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

I will weight 67kg or less by EOY 2020 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2020-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2021-01-01.
[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] May ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] June ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] July ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] August ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] September ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] October ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] November ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] December ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
Waymo offers rides to the airport this year. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2020-01-08; known on 2020-12-30; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
Dune movie is released in December 2020 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
Uncharted movie is released in December 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
Halo Infinite is released in Q4 2020 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
The S&P 500 is above its current (2020-07-18) level on 2021-01-01 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ayegill on 2020-07-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by azatris on 2021-01-01.
Austin's Kerbey Lane Cafe will begin moving from a magstripe card-based loyalty program to a mobile app loyalty program by 2021. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-05; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2021-01-01.
China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01.
I will release a blog post or other publication about this portfolio margin idea before EOY 2020 ( 10% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2020-08-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-01-01.
Coda's mainnet will launch by EOY 2020 ( 60% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2020-08-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-01-01.
China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01.
[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOY 2020 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by enolan on 2020-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-01-01.
The current world record for the highest exit altitude for a freefall (unofficially set on October 14, 2012: 39,045 m / 128,100 ft) will not be broken until 2020. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2021-01-01.
Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device. ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2019-05-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by quanticle on 2021-01-01.
S&P 500 index retests 2200 by the end of 2020 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2021-01-01.
By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
Open source MineCraft client by 2021 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
The WMATA Silver line will run to Dulles by the end of 2020. ( 40% confidence )

Created by davatk on 2018-04-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-01.
Apple will ship an iPhone with no ports before the end of 2020. ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jamesrom on 2017-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-01.
Facebook to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2021-01-01.
Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2021-01-01.
I will be banned on Twitter (@akarlin88) ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by akarlin on 2021-01-01.
'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021 ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 —Dick Lipton ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
“We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem.” —Peter Diamandis ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' —taw ( 34% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
At least one self-described “anarchist” will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. ( 36% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2021. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' —Kevin ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to rallies ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
The US to have at least 20 active nuclear submarines by the end of 2020. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
The United States to have more nuclear powered submarines than any other single country through 2020. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
homosexuality criminalized in the US ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
The internet dies. Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
As of January 1, 2021, Russia to have second most number of active nuclear powered subs out of any country. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by npcuck on 2017-01-06; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started before 2020 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
Secretary of Education Sarah Palin ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.