Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The House votes to impeach Trump a second time before the end of his term. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-07; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-21.
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Mike Pence will become President before Joe Biden does ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-21; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-21.
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My grades in this semester will be 5-s (equivalents of A), with at most two exceptions, ( 80% confidence )
Created by korakos on 2020-11-28; known on 2021-02-10; judged wrong by korakos on 2021-01-21.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 7 for more deaths ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 7 for more deaths ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 7 for more deaths ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.
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[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term ( 86% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump attempts to issue a pardon for himself before the end of the 20th of January 2021. ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
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The inauguration will be peaceful ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-18; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20.
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Joe Biden's administration will officially transition into power on schedule. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aspire43 on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by aspire43 on 2021-01-20.
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In a year, Parler 0 will still be offline 0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parler ( 60% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2022-01-17; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20.
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One of the next 5 years, the total population will be lower at the end of the year than the start of the year. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-19.
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[The Economist predicts:] Record high global average temperature is recorded by NASA ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-19.
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Politics, US – Parler's website is unavailable throughout 2021-01-17 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-10; known on 2021-01-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-18.
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in bed (by promise definition) by 10.15pm on 17th, having done the dangers list thing for 5mins starting before 10pm ( 90% confidence )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-01-18; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-01-18.
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in bed (by promise definition) by 11.15pm on 16th, having done the dangers list thing for 5mins starting before 11pm ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-01-17; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-01-18.
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This year 2020 will be warmest on record (duplicating PredictIt bet from this Jan, odds there now at 50%) ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-01-15; judged right by akarlin on 2021-01-17.
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Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-16.
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Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020. ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by blackRust on 2021-01-16.
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Border checkpoints will be set up along the UK/Ireland land border by 2020 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by blackRust on 2021-01-16.
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[The next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be] Someone else ( 1% confidence )
Created by amadeu on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-01-16.
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[The next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be] Norbert Röttgen ( 17% confidence )
Created by amadeu on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-01-16.
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[The next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be] Friedrich Merz ( 39% confidence )
Created by amadeu on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-01-16.
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[The next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be] Armin Laschet ( 43% confidence )
Created by amadeu on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-16; judged right by amadeu on 2021-01-16.
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I will be in bed by 10.45pm tonight 15 Jan (according to definition I was using for promises, w/o the 'friends approve' exceptions), ( 30% confidence )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-15; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-01-16.
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I have currently have COVID-19 and will have a fever or positive test within 10 days ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technillogue on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by technillogue on 2021-01-15.
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Illidanstr will spend at least one new years eve before the year 2021 not alone, according to his personal definition of “not alone” ( 80% confidence )
Created by bendini on 2017-01-01; known on 2021-01-10; judged right by bendini on 2021-01-10.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 18th of January 2021. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-01-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-10.
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Bharat's nuclear power will double to 10 000 MW by 2020.https://tinyurl.com/qds7raq ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-09-24; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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Democrats will keep the house and take the senate in 2020 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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100% IPV6 deployment by 2020. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by Medea on 2021-01-08.
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Both GA senate races will go Republican in January ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-08; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by LukeS on 2021-01-08.
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Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-01-10; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-07.
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George Floyd will be Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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Coronavirus epidemic in US peaks before June 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by erstwhile on 2020-03-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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Trump wins the 2020 election. ( 41% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by azatris on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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Mike Pence will certify Joe Biden’s electoral college victory on 6 January ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2021-01-05; known on 2021-01-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 14 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 15 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 13 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-06.
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I finish at least one edX/Coursera course (starting now) within the end of this year ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-11-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2021-01-06.
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Crimea still effectively occupied by/part of Russia ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sjy on 2021-01-05.
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Meta-prediction: I win my predictions bet with David Manheim https://twitter.com/peterhurford/status/1217795302821896193 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-05.
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Eliot will be forced to stop using “purple people” as an inoffensive placemarker for <some group of people> because it will start to seem offensive and people will <know> who is being referred to. See euphemistic treadmill. Within 5 years ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2015-11-11; known on 2020-11-11; judged right by waveman on 2021-01-05.
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India will have higher total (cumulative) confirmed COVID-19 cases than the US at some point before December 31 2021. ( 70% confidence )
Created by galaga on 2020-08-03; known on 2022-01-02; judged wrong by galaga on 2021-01-05.
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A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021 ( 69% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by lukefreeman on 2021-01-05.
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Politics, US – Over 28% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-13; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Politics, US – Over 38% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-13; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Tech – LG releases a “swivel” two-screen smartphone which unfolds into a T shape by end of 2020 ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.