Politics, Hong Kong – Pro-democracy candidates win a Legislative Council majority in Hong Kong's next legislative election, and such occurs within 2020. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.

Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 12th of December 2020 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-12-12; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.

COVID, UK – It is not a violation of any guideline or law for a single adult living alone to travel from Edinburgh to Carnforth on the 18th of December 2020 to stay with family. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-12-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.

Certain friend will get themselves killed before graduation (given that they graduate). Not necessarily suicide. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.

Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to Counter-protest ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.

Newport High School will have an active shooter situation by January 1st, 2021 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.

I will suicide before 2021 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.

Trump meets with Kim in 2020 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.

No OECD nation will have a lockdown (orders which prevent people from attending work, in the absence of any evidence of illness) in place by the end of 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sjy on 2020-03-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-01-03.

The states (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact have less combined electoral votes at the end of 2020 than they did in 2019 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.

I will get a list article published at Cracked.com by 31/12/2020. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by najdorf on 2013-02-06; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by najdorf on 2021-01-03.

I get Amazon student prime by EOY ( 60% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Radish on 2021-01-03.

Scotland will announce an independence referendum in 2020 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.

'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-03.

California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.

Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.

SIP is completed by the end of 2020 ( 98% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-07-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.

VR is completed by 2020 ( 95% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-07-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.

At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.

United States pulls out of NATO ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.

At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.

SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.

American ROE (in any relevant theatre) amended to allow US troops to fire on government-associated pakistanis within pakistan borders ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.

I run 5 km in under 21:00 by next year ( 60% confidence )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-01-01.

I run 5km in under 20:00 by the end of the year ( 5% confidence )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-01-01.

The UK administers at least 10 million coronavirus vaccines by the end of the year ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-01-01.

Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 — Aubrey de Grey ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.

Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Nadanate on 2012-11-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.

America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.

#Calexit ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.

President Jerry Brown ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.

Politics, UK – Brexit transition period ends 31st of December 2020 with no deal or extension. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.

Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.

China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01.

Before the end of 2020, there will be at least one week (defined as 7 consecutive days) when I meditate on at least 5 days (defined as at least 30 minutes of total meditation time from 0am to 23:59pm). ( 50% confidence )

Created by korakos on 2020-11-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by korakos on 2021-01-01.

Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.

By the end of 2020, gwern will write a new article for the English Wikipedia and Vipul Naik will pay for the work https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/ ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.

S&P500 crashes by more than 5% in a session within 3 months. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by abelriboulot on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Stephen on 2021-01-01.